Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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1996. SOHOGator
10:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2012
Looks like it's headed back to Tampa! Who hoo! Taking tomorrow off for a little windsurfing...
Member Since: June 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1995. tropicfreak
1:11 AM GMT on June 24, 2012
Quoting SuzK:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


I hate it when Avila is behind the desk...
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1993. KathyK
10:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting KORBIN:
Seems like the path of the storm is very uncertain at this point. Looking like a West Movement but not for a couple days, It's gonna get Soggy in FLA!


Soggy is good - much of FL is still in the US 'drought' map. Flooding, on the other hand, we can do without!
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1992. hydrus
10:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
No real model consensus as of yet..CMCEuro..96 hour.The mighty NOGAPS brings it in south of Texas.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
1991. weatherbro
10:01 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
NEW Blog!!!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1307
1990. KathyK
9:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Littleninjagrl:


I'm in Tampa (Town N Country) and I have not had anything more than a 30-40 second very light mist. Its been cloudy all day but no actual rain. I don't know where this "hell is breaking loose" but, it ain't anywhere around Tampa (my area of Tampa anyway).


None down here in (my area anyway) of South Fort Myers either, though there was a tornado warning south of us in Collier, so there is some hell breaking loose way south of you in the SW Fl area. We've been getting a nice, steady, soak-the-ground rain here. Fine with me - bit more of that and we'll be out of the yellow on the drought maps.
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1989. Patrap
9:54 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Warning
Statement as of 4:40 PM CDT on June 23, 2012

... Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 7 am CDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Warning... which is in effect until 7 am CDT Monday. The
coastal Flood Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Coastal flooding... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday

* timing... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday morning.
Highest water levels will occur near the time of high Tide.
Water levels will remain elevated into Monday.

* Impacts... in Hancock County water levels will peak at 2 to 3
feet above normal astronomical tide Sunday with locally higher
levels up to 4 feet possible in some locations. Flooding will
impact low lying areas around Bay St Louis and Waveland... including
but not limited to Shoreline Park and Bayside estates. Around
Lake Pontchartrain water levels will increase to near 2 feet
above normal astronomical tide beginning late
Sunday... increasing to 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical
tide by Monday. Flooding will affect low lying areas around Lake
Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. Some roadways near the lake
could become flooded. Minor flooding is possible in some
neighorhoods along the


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for
rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
1988. Patrap
9:52 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Swooosh, ahhhhh....


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM and Menu active, last frame, omit


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
1987. hydrus
9:51 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Shear is our friend. :)
Better believe it.. ;)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
1986. UGLYWX
9:50 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Appears to be sliding to the SW slightly over the last several images.

Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
1985. opal92nwf
9:29 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
I am very suprised at the NHC forecast track, not for my personal sake, but for the fact that they discounted several models that had the system going east instead, and if this storm goes to Texas, then this will be a most suprising continuation of the unusually high Texas/Mexico/Louisiana (Western Gulf) Activity the past 5 years. Remeber that the western gulf has had 4 hurricane landfalls the past 5 years (Alex, Ike, Gustav, Humberto). These were significant storms, and also not to mention this region also had 5 tropical storms in addition to these hurricanes (Erin, Edouard, Hermine, Lee, Don) while the Eastern Gulf has experienced no hurricanes in this time period, with only one tropical storm being significant (Fay), and the other 4 tropical storms impacting the Eastern Gulf (Barry, Claudette, Ida, and Bonnie) were piddly things. It will be interesting to see if this continuation of Texas/Louisiana/Mexico landfalls continues the rest of the season or if there will be a return to more Eastern gulf activity.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2684
1984. Hurricanes101
9:28 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Mamasteph:
For all the tornado's and convection that's blowing over us now to take the NHC track too...


yea those who want to throw crap in the faces of those who think this could still go to Florida fail to realize that the western half of the state is getting rocked right now with bad weather directly from Debby...in fact we will likely have more impacts here today and tomorrow than most of the other parts of the Gulf Coast will depending on her eventual track

but whatever, its always been like this here, so just have to get used to it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
1983. SuzK
9:27 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Member Since: October 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1982. tropicfreak
9:27 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Size has somthing to do with intensity.


I said intensity because of the Cat 1 at landfall... that's what I was referring to.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1981. Mamasteph
9:23 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
So floridians... What's your wish cast now
For all the tornado's and convection that's blowing over us now to take the NHC track too...
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
1980. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Skeptic33:
blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1979. SuzK
9:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WATCH IT TOMORROW HEADING TOWARDS FL


Better yet, watch it experience fission, and let one low go east and one go west. Remember that all bets are off with our 21st century weather, and anything can happen. Still waiting expectantly to see what outrageous thing could come next, and Debby isn't exempt!

Member Since: October 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1978. CypressJim08
9:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Link?


I am trying to upload the video I shot onto YouTube. I will have it shortly. I am sure it is plastered all over the local news.
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1977. SubtropicalHi
9:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
December/21-23/2012.


Then that will be the last storm
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 377
1976. emcf30
9:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Link?



Storm damage reported in East Naples; tornado warning given

By Naples Daily News staff report
Updated Saturday, June 23, 2012

EAST NAPLES — Authorities are responding to a report of a tornado touching down in East Naples in the vicinity of Rattlesnake Hammock Road and U.S. 41 East.

East Naples firefighters and Collier County sheriff’s officials are responding and settling up a command post at U.S. 41 and Rattlesnake Hammock Road.

Authorities said a tornado warning has just been issued for the area until about 4:30 p.m. and hten extended until after 5 p.m.

Daily News staff on scene is reporting roof damage to at least one home on Barcelona Circle.

Authorities also are receiving calls about storm damage to trees, fences, some roofs and pool cages in the Boca Ciega and Lakewood neighborhoods.

Several emergency personnel responding reported seeing what appeared to be a funnel cloud. It moved in the direction from south to northwest, with reports of airborne sightings in North Naples a short time later.

Link

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
1975. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I can still see it...



yes i can to,just looks like one won't be able to in a little while
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1974. Joe21
9:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
I'm not convince on this west track to Texas even though the Nhc is calling it.Could this do a 360 turn and comeback east if the trough strong enough then predicted.And i even though the gfs still call for Florida landfall it has not lost is credibility yet.Is there any tropical waves we have to watch for the united states or Florida since Texas seems to get there storm.
Member Since: June 17, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1973. gordydunnot
9:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Well everyone have a good evening, please stay safe and watch your local weather especially s. and central Fl. tonight. The rest of you'll good luck over the next couple days.Thank God for ULL's.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1972. Stormchaser121
9:20 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
NWS in Austin is saying the High Pressure should back away from Texas by the End of Next Week this could allow Debby to move more North into Texas?

Hmmm....maybe :) Gotta watch and see
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
1971. hurricanehunter27
9:20 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak:


I said in landfall location and intensity..... not in general.
Size has somthing to do with intensity.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1970. blsealevel
9:20 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting louisianaboy444:
And in the case of things getting nasty us along the Louisiana coast must be prepared...I can't stress this enough even though the current track is south of us all it takes is a slight movement northward in the track for us to get worse conditions and this strength forecast is not written in stone. Could easily have a hurricane hovering right at our coast...i'll be watching this one closely just to make sure I get no surprises


With the wind thats been blowing @ 15 to 20 all week
from the SE and high tides it wont take much for the water to build along he coast and low lying areas
plus add any rain we get from this even if this dont make hurrecaine status to our South could still get ugly around here and southward all along the La coast
hopfully it stays far South as it passes by if it does decide to go west

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1969. Levi32
9:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?


Looks like some flight-level obs got in, but only 1 dropsonde:




Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1968. AtHomeInTX
9:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Shear is very evident.


Shear is our friend. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
1967. WxGeekVA
9:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
As much as the GFS is off in the short range, it was on this system 300+ hours out...

Also, to note, 3/4 of our "Abnormally Early Storms" were storms that would have been detected before the satellite era due to them impacting land. Now people can't complain and say that our numbers are being inflated.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
1966. MAweatherboy1
9:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Severe thunderstorms heading through Boston now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
1965. stormtopz1
9:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
It kinda funny how all the florida bloggers were crowing about a landfall there when most models said texas. LOL

We are prepared here in texas though!

Member Since: July 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
1964. tennisgirl08
9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Based on the NHC track...Debby will have to start moving almost due West by late tomorrow afternoon. I see a problem with that. When is the high pressure ridge supposed to start building in??

We're going to see the cone shift quite a bit, IMHO.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
1962. NortheastGuy
9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
It's important to remember guys that when a storm is in it's infancity stage like Debby is - the COC can relocate. Wouldn't be shock if the COC moved back towards the thunderstorms. Not saying it will.
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
1961. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1960. ProgressivePulse
9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Levi called it first though 2 days ago, props to him from me!


With all due respect we are still a couple days away from anyone being right or wrong. I think it will head westward myself however, still a lot of uncertainty in that ridge next week.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
1959. floridaT
9:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
So floridians... What's your wish cast now
for the HEAT to be back again next year
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1079
1958. jpsb
9:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WATCH IT TOMORROW HEADING TOWARDS FL
Could be, I have become very reluctance to differ with a NHC track. But this one is really hard to get a handle on. I still think 50-50 east or west. Gutsy call by the NHC. I like that. Hope they are correct.


If I were the head of the NHC I would have kept it unclassified so I did not have to forecast a track. lol, yeah I know.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1957. MAweatherboy1
9:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
D id the LLC that was seperated from the convection dissipate? Looks like it on satellite

I can still see it...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
1956. interstatelover7165
9:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

000
FONT14 KNHC 232052
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 8 20 35
TROP DEPRESSION 7 10 14 13 21 20 21
TROPICAL STORM 89 77 70 62 53 43 33
HURRICANE 4 12 14 23 18 17 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 11 11 18 15 14 10
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 3 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 60KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)

ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11)

APALACHICOLA 34 5 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) 1(21)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 9(17) 4(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27) 1(28)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 8(12) 4(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) 1(23)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

PENSACOLA FL 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 5(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 18 21(39) 8(47) 5(52) 3(55) 1(56) 1(57)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

MOBILE AL 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GULFPORT MS 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 6(29) 3(32) X(32)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)

STENNIS SC 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 9(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

BURAS LA 34 2 11(13) 14(27) 11(38) 8(46) 3(49) 1(50)
BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 12 26(38) 15(53) 9(62) 5(67) 2(69) 1(70)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 7( 8) 6(14) 6(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 10(24) 8(32) 4(36) 1(37)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 7( 8) 12(20) 15(35) 15(50) 4(54) 1(55)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 1(18)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 8(22) 3(25) 2(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 3(28) 2(30)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 15(29) 7(36) 4(40)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 3(23)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 3(22)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 4(28)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 4(22)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)

TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
1955. GeorgiaStormz
9:16 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
A brief interruption from Debby-related news to bring you something we haven't seen an quite some time: an image of a nearly featureless solar disc. Just (relatively) tiny active area 1511 blemishes the otherwise perfect circle:

Click for larger image:

sun


2012 seems to get all the interesting stuff.
The mayans are off somewhere chuckling to themselves
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
1954. allancalderini
9:16 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
I say cat 2 at landfall unless it pass very near Louisiana and If Chris which was farther North and only has 2 days to strength into a hurricane. why Debby cannot?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4400
1953. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:16 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
D id the LLC that was seperated from the convection dissipate? Looks like it on satellite
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1952. tropicfreak
9:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Find a hurricane that is 2 times larger than the one your showing me and I will agree. Look how much space 1 band of Debbie takes.


I said in landfall location and intensity..... not in general.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1951. washingtonian115
9:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting SubtropicalHi:



What is the date of the Mayan Super Doom forecast?
December/21-23/2012.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
1950. WxLogic
9:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?


I believe Nrt... had a link on what data has made it to forecast models, but I can't seem to find it so far.

I sure hope that at least some has made it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4976
1949. hydrus
9:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Shear is very evident.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
1948. shfr173
9:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?
good point may be interesting!
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
1947. Neapolitan
9:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting CypressJim08:
Just had a tornado touch down thirty minutes or so in north naples, and ran through NCH hospital off of Immokalee Rd. (for those of you who know the area). I even caught it on video.
Link?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
1946. Hurricane1956
9:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
until tomorrow when they do again, then monday they wont
Yes I'm very SURPRISE! the NHC completely discounted both the very realiable GFS and GFDL,but they are the expert!,will see what happens,I still don't buy this track,and I just want to make sure that everybody knows I'm not a Florida wishcaster,just what I see for several days is a vias toward the East,we still have couple of day to see if the GFS and GFDL change to the West.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 623

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.