Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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1596. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLZ065-232100-
LEE-
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT
LOVERS KEY STATE PARK...BONITA SPRINGS...ESTERO AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AIRPORT...UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8191 2644 8195 2647 8198 2647 8201
2645 8200 2645 8201 2672 8204 2673 8162
2642 8164 2641 8166 2634 8165 2632 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 170DEG 27KT 2639 8177
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
Quoting Bitmap7:
The majority of debby's convection is under high shear and it aint budging.



She needs to move west to catch a break. She can't build convection on the west side either because of the dry air. The only hope is to rap around the convection and moisture from the east thats being sheared.
Not because of dry. UUL is keeping her in check on the western side.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
It looks like crap right now. naked swirl void of any deep convection, definitely being sheared.
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SPC AC 231956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION INVOF THE SWRN FL
COAST...WITH A BAND OF STORMS MOVING NWD OUT OF CUBA TOWARD/INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FL KEYS. WITH LATEST KEY WEST VWP DATA SHOWING SOME
LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR...AND CORRESPONDING/WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITHIN
A FEW OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WARRANTS INCLUSION OF A 2% TORNADO
PROBABILITY LINE THIS FORECAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
60mph contaminated readings.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
With what we're seeing inundating southern Florida now may mean this is already a 50mph TS at least. All this moisture over central and eastern Florida going to coincide with the upper level low out there nearby to possibly form something too? The squall lines southwest of the tornado warned areas doesn't look nice either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't see 50 or 55 MPH yet. One reading does not mean that it's already that strong. 45 is my guess, but I may be conservative here.

It wasn't one reading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But if it go to FL we may get a Tornado watch
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


It doesn't appear that SE South Florida (Miami - Jupiter) will be affected.

SW Florida may get a Tornado watch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1588. GPTGUY
Quoting RTSplayer:


BS. He was right on top of Katrina and damn near lost his life in the storm surge trying to help other people vertically evacuate. It flooded the bottom floor of the hotel he was in.


Not a hotel..Armed Forces Retirement Home
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1587. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


if it goes north and then southwest like it could, i may be in serious flooding. water is already up a couple of feet
...whew stay safe ok, before this is thru, alot of people are going to be in harms way,especially with flooding
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
Quoting cyclonekid:
Correct.
wow i cant believe were beating 2005 in number of named storms so far lol
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 200° at 51 knots (From the SSW at ~ 58.6 mph)
If it has already that winds it can really have a shot of becoming a high-end cat 2 or low end cat 3 if that were to occur we will likely can talk about a possible retirement if it went to verify.
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Quoting gbreezegirl:
Oh no! Say it aint so. The weather channel just showed where their coverage is coming from and guess where the Cantore is? Live "near Pensacola". Go to doom status! LOL.

My husband and I were just joking about that, maybe 10 years ago, we would have been doomed... now he tries to go where there will be slight effects, but not a direct hit, he sends the youngins to the heavy stuff. I'm in Pcola
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration since the HH left the system.

Deterioration?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
53mph dropsonde splashed.

Might be 53 mph already.


I don't see 50 or 55 MPH yet. One reading does not mean that it's already that strong. 45 is my guess, but I may be conservative here.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
Quoting LargoFl:
yes later on its going to get bad here


if it goes north and then southwest like it could, i may be in serious flooding. water is already up a couple of feet
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Quoting Mucinex:
TWC has dragged out Bryan Norcross. The real sign that it'll be official very soon.

Also, Cantore to Pensacola. Congrats Pensacola. Cantore is never within 40 miles of a landfalling storm.


BS. He was right on top of Katrina and damn near lost his life in the storm surge trying to help other people vertically evacuate. It flooded the bottom floor of the hotel he was in.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1579. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:



woooooooooooooooooooooooo...'


Winddddddddddddddd'

Shearrrrrrrrrrrrrr'............
That ULL is gonna rip Debby a new one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration since the HH left the system.


What deterioration???
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1577. guygee
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Error cone is based on a standard they pick...they don't make it larger or smaller in times of uncertainty.

There is a standard radius they use for one..two...three...four...etc days out. They draw that radius for each of their best guess positions....then connect them to make the cone.

The cone may appear fatter or skinnier depending on if the forecast positions are smushed together (for a slow system) or are spread apart (fast moving system)....
Completely accurate observation, thank you. Just for emphasis, the standard is chosen based on average error of past forecasts as compared to the climatology model. The NHC method of representing uncertainty is not adjustable to the actual uncertainty, when, for example, reliable models consistently show divergent results, as is the case for this storm.

The actual forecasting uncertainty is unknown and may be greater or less than the average forecasting uncertainty that is shown by the NHC for any particular storm.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Don't forget there are two sides to SFL (E & W)


It doesn't appear that SE South Florida (Miami - Jupiter) will be affected.

SW Florida may get a Tornado watch
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting tornadodude:



This is Debby? LOL

This is Allison? LOL



Don't underestimate it (which I'm sure you aren't, but still). It has plenty of time to strengthen over the Gulf, but even if it doesn't, it can find other ways to still be destructive, kind of like the storm I put above. :P
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
53mph dropsonde splashed.

Might be 53 mph already.



this is not good



this wait in tell that ull moves out of the way and wind shear really get low
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
1573. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-232030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0010.120623T2000Z-120623T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FAKAHATCHEE
STRAND STATE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PICAYUNE STRAND STATE FOREST...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

&&

LAT...LON 2618 8166 2624 8151 2626 8137 2608 8137
2597 8137 2594 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 164DEG 19KT 2606 8145
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
When is the TWC going to FL??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration........I stand corrected.

Are the Hunters still on site?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1570. Bitmap7
The majority of debby's convection is under high shear and it aint budging.



She needs to move west to catch a break. She can't build convection on the west side either because of the dry air. The only hope is to rap around the convection and moisture from the east thats being sheared.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1569. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


it isnt pushing debby its pushing her convection. you may very well get some of those too
yes later on its going to get bad here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
53mph dropsonde splashed...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
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Quoting LargoFl:
when you view that in motion its like that swirl by texas is pushing debby eastward no?


it isnt pushing debby its pushing her convection. you may very well get some of those too
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1565. Mucinex
TWC has dragged out Bryan Norcross. The real sign that it'll be official very soon.

Also, Cantore to Pensacola. Congrats Pensacola. Cantore is never within 40 miles of a landfalling storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh no! Say it aint so. The weather channel just showed where their coverage is coming from and guess where the Cantore is? Live "near Pensacola". Go to doom status! LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.


Don't forget there are two sides to SFL (E & W)
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1562. cg2916
Wow, I had loaded up the renumber page expecting that it'll be the giveaway to 04L. But there is no renumber... just an 04L page.
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From HH dropsonde just now, under the eastern convection...

Time: 19:54:30Z
Coordinates: 25.0N 85.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 962.4 mb (~ 28.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 397 meters (~ 1,302 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 207° at 51 knots (From the SSW at ~ 58.6 mph)
Air Temp: 19.0°C* (~ 66.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 23 mm/hr (~ 0.91 in/hr)
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...

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1559. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Good points to back up your argument. I also think your a little to conservative on the intensity if it were to head west. Good job overall though.


With that ULL there it won't be able to make hurricane status for a while. And once it is gone, it might be too close to land to rapidly strengthen.

Quoting AnthonyJKenn:

I'm not sure I can agree with that solution, since the ridge that will becoming established over the Southern Plains should block any stairstepping move to the N or NNW. Either an outright stall in the Central Gulf or a push to the W or WSW is more likely...or. the system splits in two with the main energy going NE to ENE across Florida, and a secondary system forming out of the remnants and moving W or WSW into S TX or MX.

Only other scenario I can see is the Canadian one of Debby finding the weakness between the developing ridge and the trough just E of NOLA and sliding through it before the ridge establishes itself.

My totally unscientific prediction: TS Warnings from Morgan City/Intercoastal City, LA to Applachee Bay, FL initially; extended or redefined either way when Debby makes up her mind on where she's going.


The ridge should slide it west for a while, but then as the ridge slides to the northeast it should allow a weakness that will pull Debby slightly northward around the southwestern edge of the high.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
1557. nigel20
Quoting weatherh98:


you should be seing three

Hey weatherh98....where's the third one?
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Quoting windshear1993:
so now its the earliest 4th named storm on record right??
Correct.
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Two tornado warning in S FL now
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.
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From Meteorologist Brooks Garner on WFLA-News Channel 8:

"Winds OF 60 mph found at 1,200' by the Hurricane Hunter C-130J very far east of the center. (A subtropical-tendency--) Warnings to follow?"
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000
FXUS62 KMFL 231818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

BY LATE MONDAY, THE LATEST GFS STILL TAKES THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
LOW INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET ALL TRACK IT
WEST, EVENTUALLY INTO TEXAS. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WHILE A STRONG TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
IF THIS VERIFIES, IT SEEMS MOST
PLAUSIBLE THAT THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW WOULD BE FORCED WEST.
THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINLY AFFECTS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE SOLUTIONS WILL STILL BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
THE FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JUST HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. IF IT IS DELAYED, THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY MORE REALISTIC.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH POPS
SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE TROUGH
EXITS THE EAST COAST, CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1552. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.
there IS a tornado down by naples already..bad weather is coming up the coastline it seems
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
If Debby is already a 50 mph storm and it looks like this, I'd hate to think what it could be without shear...and it will likely get that chance.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313



This is Debby? LOL
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1549. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:



woooooooooooooooooooooooo...'


Winddddddddddddddd'

Shearrrrrrrrrrrrrr'............
when you view that in motion its like that swirl by texas is pushing debby eastward no?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39333
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tornado watch may go up for S FL and C FL


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Peak winds of 46 knots in the convection so far.


I think the NHC will only give it 45
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so now its the earliest 4th named storm on record right??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.