Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Here's a great link to compare the 500mb patterns among various models. As a test I chose the GFS and the UKMET to see the different 500mb spatial differences among opposing models. The trough on the GFS extends about 700km farther south than the UKMET and the ridge extends about 250km farther eastward on the UKMET than on the GFS.

HPC 500mb models
Hello,if I may ask what this all means? that you believe that the GFS solution is more probable than the UKMET?,I'm not a weather expert,but has being following hurricanes for more than 25 years,my gut feeling was always with the GFS eastern solution,I'm probably wrong,but looking at the whole picture in the Gulf of Mexico and the way this system wants to go East this is my 2 cents worth opinion.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 603
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.


Hm, I imagine there was some pretty high rain rates in that to. I imagine the NHC will go with 50mph at 5pm.

We'll know in 20 minutes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.


65 mph or so then surface would be roughly 55
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65mph so Debby may be 55Mph??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.
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1642. amd
Quoting weatherh98:
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?


Sort of. The LLC looks well-structured, but there is definitely shear in the upper levels displacing the convection. In fact, it currently looks very similar to many early season gulf storms that has to deal with upper level westerly shear.

And, recon has found flight winds of 58 knots in the latest pass, with surface winds of about 40 knots.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here are some analogues for Debby in terms of track, not intensity:


T.S. One (1941)


T.S. One (1880)
Coincidentally formed on the 21st of June too...
Good ones WXGVX.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
I THINK AT 5:00 PM WILL BE DEBBY, I CANT WAIT TO SEE THE CONE OF ERROR OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

GFS OR ECMWF?
FLORIDA OR TEXAS?

THIS IS GETTING GOOD!!!!!LOL
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That LLC that came out of the convection looks to be weakening??
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5115
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here are some analogues for Debby in terms of track, not intensity:


T.S. One (1941)


T.S. One (1880)
Coincidentally formed on the 21st of June too...

This is pretty close to what I am currently thinking Debby will do track-wise...I agree with you WXGeekVA...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 440 Comments: 3607
Quoting hurricane23:


Looke like your typical june ugly sheared TC. environment still looks hostile and looks to stay that way until the ull backs away. It does have potential to intensify if it tucks under the ridge and heads towards mex.


Agreed. It has potential, but nothing pretty right now.
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Anyone interested in a good feed of crow, with saute onions and red wine reduction...Patrap maybe?? Until NHC says so...it isn't so.
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Quoting tornadodude:


The convection is being sheared away from the center


not really only 10 or so knots

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What if the center redevelops under the convection?


it gets sheared ahhaha
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha Oh I agree, it may end up being bad, but it looks like a naked swirl right now. Things may change quickly tho


You want to laugh at something? Laugh at this.



Debby is no laughing matter no matter it's current state. It's absolutely going to drench Florida, tornado watches also may need to be put up. It looks bad now, sure. But trust me, a frame by frame movement of a ULL is by no mean a movement. That ULL will be moving out of the picture and will actually be ventilating the system in the future. The models really want to spin Debby up and they all showed that it would be disorganized when classified. The ECMWF, CMC, UKMET to in some extent bring Debby either flirting or at hurricane status.
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anyone else having an internal server error when trying to view the radar?
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Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
Quoting tornadodude:
It looks like crap right now. naked swirl void of any deep convection, definitely being sheared.


Looke like your typical june ugly sheared TC. environment still looks hostile and looks to stay that way until the ull backs away. It does have potential to intensify if it tucks under the ridge and heads towards mex.
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Quoting AllStar17:
It would also seem that the instant shear lessens, Debby will become significantly better organized.

you could say that for most tropical systems.
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Quoting weatherh98:
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?


What if the center redevelops under the convection?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting weatherh98:
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?


The convection is being sheared away from the center
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
57 knot flight level winds...


Wow!
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That is moving south out of Debbie's way right?

Affirmative, although it does not appear to be in much of a hurry.
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57 knot flight level winds...
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Here are some analogues for Debby in terms of track, not intensity:


T.S. One (1941)


T.S. One (1880)
Coincidentally formed on the 21st of June too...

Also

Hurricane 2 (1909)
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The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?
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someone could not wait...
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Quoting Mucinex:

Yes. The one time in a hundred storms. I'd be worried for Tampa/clearwater. That's were they are sending Mike Seidell. He's always in the soup, everytime.

The way I look at it...they are placing them where their all already impacts. The east side of Debby has been lashing Florida with heavy rains...maybe some light gusty winds...and possible tornadoes...the impacts being worse the closer you are to the Gulf coast of Florida.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 440 Comments: 3607
Quoting reedzone:
Debby is most likely NOT going to hit Mexico.. gosh..


Haven't really seen anyone saying that it would. South Central Texas is the most likely target.
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It would also seem that the instant shear lessens, Debby will become significantly better organized. In other words, it won't take Debby a long time to organize once the shear lessens.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Here is the culprit:





That would do it. Nice looking naked swirl for now tho haha
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Maybe I have been glued to the loops for too long today......Gonna take a break and see what happens later on....... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8801
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wants the convection lol.

Yea its trying
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That is moving south out of Debbie's way right?


Yes, that is predicted to get out of Debby's hair.
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Models show that the upper level low currently shearing the storm should back southwest over the next day and an upper level anticyclone should form aloft, lowering wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico and helping Debby get convection going atop its center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
1613. GPTGUY
Quoting RTSplayer:


Ah. My memory is foggy, sorry.



No problem..but you are right they had to vertically evacuate 27 ft surge in that area..the AFRH was a total loss they imploded it and had to rebuild.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Here is the culprit:



That is moving south out of Debbie's way right?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
1611. yqt1001
So now that we have Debby, we have the long wait to landfall...

*yawn*

These monsoonal systems are so slow.

Would be funny if the TV stations set up shop in Florida just for Debby to move west at the last minute though.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Her Satt presentation (to my eyes) in the last several frames......here are TS force winds present but she has lost some of her earlier banding features. Just my opinion.


well it looks like banding has increased on IR
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1609. Drakoen
Here's a great link to compare the 500mb patterns among various models. As a test I chose the GFS and the UKMET to see the different 500mb spatial differences among opposing models. The trough on the GFS extends about 700km farther south than the UKMET and the ridge extends about 250km farther eastward on the UKMET than on the GFS.

HPC 500mb models
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1608. LargoFl
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
SUNDAY EVENING FROM DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF
WALTON...BAY...GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
EVENING...

.A TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS FORMED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS LED TO WATER LEVEL RISE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL VALUES...HIGH SURF WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
BEACHES LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL EROSION AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS...WHICH WILL BE LIFE THREATENING FOR ANYONE ENTERING
THE SURF.

FLZ115-240900-
/O.NEW.KTAE.CF.Y.0001.120623T2011Z-120625T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.SU.Y.0003.120624T0000Z-120626T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.RP.S.0015.000000T0000Z-120625T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
411 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY.

* SURF...BREAKERS 2 TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY MIDNIGHT.

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND TWO FEET
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. OVERALL
STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING NEAR ALLIGATOR
POINT.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY AROUND
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AROUND THE TIMES OF THESE HIGH
TIDES.

* IMPACTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...IMPACTING LOW
LYING COASTAL ROADS. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL EROSION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH SURF THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND
POSTED SIGNS. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. REMAIN CALM AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU
ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO
THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT.
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$
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Quoting tornadodude:
It looks like crap right now. naked swirl void of any deep convection, definitely being sheared.

Here is the culprit:



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Quoting weatherh98:

It wants the convection lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
Quoting GPTGUY:


Not a hotel..Armed Forces Retirement Home


Ah. My memory is foggy, sorry.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration........I stand corrected.

Are the Hunters still on site?


Yep, started their turn north going through the main area of deep convection... wondering if they will pick up any winds higher than 53 mph.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

This is Allison? LOL



Don't underestimate it (which I'm sure you aren't, but still). It has plenty of time to strengthen over the Gulf, but even if it doesn't, it can find other ways to still be destructive, kind of like the storm I put above. :P


haha Oh I agree, it may end up being bad, but it looks like a naked swirl right now. Things may change quickly tho
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Flight level winds are 50 knots
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1600. Mucinex
Quoting RTSplayer:


BS. He was right on top of Katrina and damn near lost his life in the storm surge trying to help other people vertically evacuate. It flooded the bottom floor of the hotel he was in.

Yes. The one time in a hundred storms. I'd be worried for Tampa/clearwater. That's were they are sending Mike Seidell. He's always in the soup, everytime.
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Estimated Surface Wind: From 200° at 45 knots (From the SSW at ~ 51.7 mph
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Quoting AllStar17:


What deterioration???


Her Satt presentation (to my eyes) in the last several frames......here are TS force winds present but she has lost some of her earlier banding features. Just my opinion.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8801
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't see 50 or 55 MPH yet. One reading does not mean that it's already that strong. 45 is my guess, but I may be conservative here.


you should work for the nhc then haha
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1596. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLZ065-232100-
LEE-
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT
LOVERS KEY STATE PARK...BONITA SPRINGS...ESTERO AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AIRPORT...UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8191 2644 8195 2647 8198 2647 8201
2645 8200 2645 8201 2672 8204 2673 8162
2642 8164 2641 8166 2634 8165 2632 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 170DEG 27KT 2639 8177
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.