Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Reports of tornado damage by news crews in Naples Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6106
Quoting weatherh98:
\

ATCF file
It's possible, but it doesn't give the direction or speed of movement.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't understand how they have that information.

NHC updates all media before the advisory.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
It's F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5 TIME!!!
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that warned cell now is approaching ava maria and immokalee fairly well populated
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
the track anywhere fron NE mexico to SW florida
That sounds like a very small cone...
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for larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_serc.gif
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Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't understand how they have that information.
\

ATCF file
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Quoting Altestic2012:

Only 45 mph.

Prepare the NHC bashing, in T-minus 3...2...1...


It's been Debby for a while. Please check back a few pages.

These wind readings are coming in after the renumber.
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1736. Patrap
20:28:30Z 26.983N 85.000W 963.5 mb

(~ 28.45 inHg) 392 meters
(~ 1,286 feet) - - From 145° at 49 knots
(From the SE at ~ 56.3 mph) 19.7°C*
(~ 67.5°F*) -* 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 31.7 knots (~ 36.5 mph)
64.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor


HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 191 miles (307 km) to the SW (235°) from Tampa, FL, USA.

At 20:28:30Z (last observation), the observation was 170 miles (273 km) to the WSW (246°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
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the track anywhere fron NE mexico to SW florida
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Quoting Tazmanian:
look for hurricane watchs too go up


yes and tropical storm warning
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Quoting Altestic2012:

Only 45 mph.

Prepare the NHC bashing, in T-minus 3...2...1...




but with recon info they are going too likey bump this too 50 too 60 mph
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Seems Debby (Debbie?) whats to make a run to hurricane status this year.Unlike 6 years ago when she was a week storm off north of Africa.
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Thanks, Lightingcharmer
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I can smell that crow now....hmmm...good.
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Wow
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
someone could not wait...
I don't understand how they have that information.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


OK,BRO


hahhha welcome havent seen you post here yet but hey thats okay
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Two Tornado boxes. Please watch the sky and take necessary precautions.
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look for hurricane watchs too go up
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1723. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-051-232115-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0012.120623T2027Z-120623T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MILE MARKER 60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MILE MARKER 60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...
HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY
OVERPASS. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...
IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A
TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR COULD DEVELOP ANYTIME.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

&&

LAT...LON 2641 8126 2640 8092 2605 8105 2605 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 180DEG 18KT 2610 8111

$$

BAXTER
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Quoting wpb:
navy still got 96l


the weather channel doesnt
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It's Debby.
AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS

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1720. nigel20
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Debby could be a 50-60mph TS

Agreed.
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Debby will also continue the string of storms this year that have skipped right to TS status.
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Quoting weatherh98:


get it right. on this site its....

THE CONE OF DOOM, DEATH, and DISTRUCTION


OK,BRO
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1717. Patrap
GOES-13 GOM Low Cloud Product Loop

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New tornado warning until 5:15 pm for Collier county Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6106
Quoting floridaT:
good news is where that cell passes east of me very few people live out there


There were 2 and one looked to be east of east naples and the othwer was by U.S. 41 and Rattlesnake something
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5110
Quoting Tazmanian:
this think when shear drops too all most 0 this thing will really take off


dare i say... ROCKET FUEL
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
That feeder band that contained those tornados only goes inland like 20 miles and then its spotty thunderstorms,but along the coast its all hell breaking lose from the keys to tampa
Hell must not be all that bad because I've only had spotty raindrops falling and calm wind for the past 3 hours here north of Tampa.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting Altestic2012:
Still 96L



its not 96L
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Quoting wpb:
navy still got 96l



its not 96L
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Quoting mobileshadow:
Tropical Storm watches are about to be issued


maybe even warnings for aplachicola area they have a band about to move through
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Quoting luvtogolf:


Satellite images tell us it is a very lopsided system which is common in a subtropical system. I think we'll see more development on the western side of the storm during the next 24-48 hours.
Debby isn't subtropical at all.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
this think when shear drops too all most 0 this thing will really take off
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You can see the two isolated cells that produced the tornado warnings and public sightings of tornadoes.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6106
1705. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLC021-232030-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120623T2030Z/
COLLIER FL-
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 417 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
RURAL CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP ANYTIME. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

LAT...LON 2622 8148 2624 8146 2626 8137 2608 8137
2608 8138 2609 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 185DEG 19KT 2614 8142

$$

BAXTER
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1703. wpb
navy still got 96l
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Debby could be a 50-60mph TS
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Quoting RTSplayer:


As a rule, Dr. Steve Lyons used to say that flight level in Knots was roughly equal to MPH at the surface, so yeah.

57knts flight level ~= 57mph surface winds.

But that could have been a local thunderstorm, so that doesn't necessarily mean they'll make that the official wind speed.


yes i know it could be localized but they are finding higher winds too
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1699. guygee
Can we remember the names of past sheared GOM tropical storms that moved mostly by center relocation?
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Quoting washingaway:
I think it is spliting in two, just like the GFS predicted.


It is not splitting in 2.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
The wind profile is almost subtropical in nature....

Note the key word ALMOST


Satellite images tell us it is a very lopsided system which is common in a subtropical system. I think we'll see more development on the western side of the storm during the next 24-48 hours.
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Tropical Storm watches are about to be issued
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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