Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GPTGUY:
96L kind of looks like a sloppy version of Hurricane Earl from 1998.



Or like Hermine. If only Debby could do this.. there'd be enough water in that fat raintail of hers to fill up the Highland Lakes and centex aquifers.
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Quoting weatherlover94:
I would highly recommend that folks along the western Louisiana to the southern Texas coast to look over there emergency evacuation plans and check the storm kits to make sure you have everything you MAY need. Its not set in stone yet by any means. Now would be a good time to review everything just in case.
what about everyone east of those locations ????????????????
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244. 7544
looks like 96l is about to put on the breaks and stall soon imo watching the trof could it really get far enough and make the gfs right or wrong
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Whether Debbie comes to Texas or not NWS is saying South Central Texas will have little to no impacts except to Increase my Heat and My Fire Danger so go ahead Debbie and die out of over Florida.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A DEVELOP TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WEST TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TX...BUT SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN THAT WOULD INDICATE NO IMPACTS ON SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE MOST OF THE
ENERGY NORTHEAST OVER FL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS
NEAR THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND DO NOT SUGGEST
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL FACTOR IN A
SLOW DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODEST CHANGES TO HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO
MORE SEASONAL VALUES. IF A STRONGER SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD SOUTH TX...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS CONCERNS FOR HEAT
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.





To add to comment 234...see my point?
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This storm looks like a giant question mark. Doesn't that say it all ?

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183
Link

appears to be down to 1002 MB click on the box that says NWS fronts
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Look at all that dry air to the west.....I don't see a storm out of this for at least a couple of days.
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Station 42003



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Quoting seflagamma:
#205 Hi PalmBeacher, glad to hear someone that lives close to the beach admit they have had enough rain for awhile!

I am so soggy and sick of rain ..
this has been the wettest dry season I can remember in over 33 yrs living here.
Not sure where you are in Broward Gamma, but I did win $48 dollars last Sunday at Seminole Casino in Coconut Creek, then spent it all at Penn Dutch.
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236. emguy
It's unfornate that a lot of folks were not able to see this as it unfolded last night. A wind surge moved up into the NE quadrant of the gulf...Several "gyres" popped out along the way, but it was clear with that wind surge that things would get going further north. The system has worked off all of those gyres and the low is just underneath the western edge of the convection. At this point...the system is north of where the models called...well to the east as well. Ahead of schedule for sure, but will likely slowdown a bit now. As it was, I figured this was an eastern gulf event as eastern gulf systems stay in the eastern gulf in June. As before, I still believe the GFS had a bite on it although not clear cut in it's solution...and now that things are where they are, the door on the westward models has likely been slammed shut. This is a North Florida in June type tropical storm that will likely cross the shore beween Tampa and Apalachicola.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
E quite possibly if Texas is the destination. Is the ridge of death in place again this year? Surely it can't be as strong as last years.
Our forecast highs are 105 to 107 this death ridge will be pretty strong next week and it is very dry where I am, they are saying we could have the worst fire season ever even worst than 2011 because we have alot more dead vegetation.
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Well...if rapid intensification is going to happen...that ULL in the west Gulf of Mexico has to get out of there. Otherwise...this is going to stay sheared...
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Nuff said
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
I would highly recommend that folks along the western Louisiana to the southern Texas coast to look over there emergency evacuation plans and check the storm kits to make sure you have everything you MAY need. Its not set in stone yet by any means. Now would be a good time to review everything just in case.
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Is there any reason to suppose that this shall have been the last "quantum tunneling" of the COC, so that it disappears and suddenly re-appears a hundred miles distant?

Should we be surprised if the center fades and rematerializes 50 miles west of Tampa come tommorrow this time?
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Quoting weatherlover94:
poll time

how strong will Debby be at Landfall?

A: 40 mph or less
B: 50 mph
C: 60-70 mph
D: 75-90 mph
E: stronger than 90 mph



If Texas, D.


If anywhere else, probably B or low C.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Jedkins01:


Seriously, people are a little too obsessed with the Euro, just because it has performed well doesn't mean we should blindly follow its every move, could it move west? Yes, but it will it rapidly intensify? Now come guys use your heads, nothing can be ruled out when it comes to tropical cyclone intensity but it doesn't take a brain freak to figure out that rapid intensification is probably the least likely thing to happen with this low than anything else.

That's thing though, lol, the ECMWF does not rapidly intensify it. It shows it gradually intensifying up to landfall.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Nice to see you, Drak.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5301
Quoting E46Pilot:
Please no more rain, in palm beach county. My roof is leaking like crazy.
That sucks E46........Been there after Wilma..........It took 3 years to finally settle with my insurance company to finally get a new roof.......I have paid my premiums on time for many many years...THEN when I have a problem it is like pulling teeth for them to help me...They rank up there with car salesmen.
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did the 11 am advisory come out yet?
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#205 Hi PalmBeacher, glad to hear someone that lives close to the beach admit they have had enough rain for awhile!

I am so soggy and sick of rain ..
this has been the wettest dry season I can remember in over 33 yrs living here.
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Quoting weatherlover94:
looks like Galveston could get slammed by this one if it gets strong like a few of the models are showing.
Remember High Pressure will be Strong over Texas I would look for more of a Brownsville Northern Mexico landing, with this High being so strong it could turn the eventual storm southwest and have little impact on Texas, that is a possibility
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Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.



If not already.. Just waiting to see what Hurricane Hunters find... Welcome back btw, good to see you on here.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Seriously, people are a little too obsessed with the Euro, just because it has performed well doesn't mean we should blindly follow its every move, could it move west? Yes, but it will it rapidly intensify? Now come guys use your heads, nothing can be ruled out when it comes to tropical cyclone intensity but it doesn't take a brain freak to figure out that rapid intensification is probably the least likely thing to happen with this low than anything else.
Not to mention that the Euro never rapidly intensifies it. It brings it down to 992mb in four days. That's only a drop of 10mb in four days, which is far from RI.....
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Quoting luvtogolf:
Crown Weather says no chance for Florida. Expect landfall around Corpus Christi as a minimal hurricane.


80 mph hurricane near Corpus Christi. They also said the CMC shifted to far east and they are not going with CMC forecast. Are you serious Crown Weather, it was the CMC that support the Texas solution for a week or so They had full confidence with its solution now they just throw it out. They also say the GFS is garbage. The GFS is the most consistent with its track I personally think Crown Weather is garbage and you should not be rely on for accurate Tropical information. There is plenty of uncertainty right now for them to be so certain. Note: Climatology speaking it favored for a more NE track across Florida.
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E quite possibly if Texas is the destination. Is the ridge of death in place again this year? Surely it can't be as strong as last years.
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I did this on comment 199 on prev flip so reposting.



Good morning Again,

Thanks for the update Dr Jeff!

Some of you Florida folks that are still wanting rain, I am so sorry. I know truly in some areas it rains all around you but avoids your neighborhood.

There are still some dry places in the Panhandle and along the Gulf coast but m ost of the state looks good.
And when this updates this afternoon around 4pm it will have a lot of "blue" from yesterday/last night's rains.

Here in Broward county those folks that live East of 95 close to the beach rarely get rain
While I get tons of it out in the western Burbs of Sunrise, Plantation, Weston, etc.

My house rain gauges have reported this:

Monday morning (from Sat & Sun rains) 1"

Wed morning: 1.4"
Sat morning (this morning) 1.2"


So my neighborhood has had 3.6" of rain in last week! Our canals are up the rims and storm drains are full. Pools are overflowing and streets have a hard time finding a place for the water to drain.

Most of Florida is looking good these days.






We don't need another tropical system tromping across Florida.. this our 3rd rain maker this spring already! YIKES!!!
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Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.



Probably get named after recon.


I figure if it can get over the 55mph hurdle before 6p.m. central, then it should be strong enough to hold together well during Dmin, and then tomorrow or the next day could see some strengthening.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.


Welcome back, Drak!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
There is a lot of inflow going into to 96l from the Caribbean and the first signs of outflow are apparent in the SE quadrant. Thunderstorms also seem seems to be racing towards the center and building there on the vis and ir loops.


TS tbh
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Please no more rain, in palm beach county. My roof is leaking like crazy.
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Quoting weatherlover94:
looks like Galveston could get slammed by this one if it gets strong like a few of the models are showing.

I agree
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Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.



Welcome Back.

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Whether Debbie comes to Texas or not NWS is saying South Central Texas will have little to no impacts except to Increase my Heat and My Fire Danger so go ahead Debbie and die out of over Florida.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A DEVELOP TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WEST TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TX...BUT SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN THAT WOULD INDICATE NO IMPACTS ON SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE MOST OF THE
ENERGY NORTHEAST OVER FL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS
NEAR THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND DO NOT SUGGEST
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL FACTOR IN A
SLOW DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODEST CHANGES TO HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO
MORE SEASONAL VALUES. IF A STRONGER SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD SOUTH TX...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS CONCERNS FOR HEAT
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.



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looks like Galveston could get slammed by this one if it gets strong like a few of the models are showing.
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I just returned last night from sea trials over the GOMEX. Sea state was awful I and you can feel the moisture in the air. There is plenty of fuel in the area for rapid intensification IMO. Anyway I already saw the system up close. Plenty of rain to whoever gets it. We don't need it here in Mississippi.
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Quoting weatherlover94:
poll time

how strong will Debby be at Landfall?

A: 40 mph or less
B: 50 mph
C: 60-70 mph
D: 75-90 mph
E: stronger than 90 mph

D
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Thx Dr Masters

But the Euro and CMC show a cane

ECMWF really wants to rapid intesify this.
I think at some point this will undergo a rapid intensifation spurt, but sometime after the euro wants it to.

right now it has the loop current


Seriously, people are a little too obsessed with the Euro, just because it has performed well doesn't mean we should blindly follow its every move, could it move west? Yes, but it will it rapidly intensify? Now come guys use your heads, nothing can be ruled out when it comes to tropical cyclone intensity but it doesn't take a brain freak to figure out that rapid intensification is probably the least likely thing to happen with this low than anything else.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning Again,

Thanks for the update Dr Jeff!

Some of you Florida folks that are still wanting rain, I am so sorry. I know truly in some areas it rains all around you but avoids your neighborhood.

Here in Broward county those folks that live East of 95 close to the beach rarely get rain
While I get tons of it out in the western Burbs of Sunrise, Plantation, Weston, etc.

My house rain gauges have reported this:

Monday morning (from Sat & Sun rains) 1"

Wed morning: 1.4"
Sat morning (this morning) 1.2"


So my neighborhood has had 3.6" of rain in last week! Our canals are up the rims and storm drains are full. Pools are overflowing and streets have a hard time finding a place for the water to drain.

Most of Florida is looking good these days.




gamma...I am in Palm Beach county....100 yards from the Intracoastal......In the last 7 days I have received 5 inches.
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I'm impressed with how much the circulation has tightened up since midnight. It's really far more organized, even though total regional convection has come down since yesterday's peak.

We'll see what happens today as convection heights and areas for this storm has tended to peak in early afternoon, and then weaken afterwards.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting weatherlover94:
poll time

how strong will Debby be at Landfall?

A: 40 mph or less
B: 50 mph
C: 60-70 mph
D: 75-90 mph
E: stronger than 90 mph


B
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On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.

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Gale warnings are up.....................GMZ015-232030-
NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W-
1023 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...GALE WARNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...SE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...BECOMING SE TO S 25 TO
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF 27N...SEAS 6 TO 9 FT... BUILDING TO
7 TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF 27N...SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
WIND AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING IN BANDS AND LINES.
.TONIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN...S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
Good morning Again,

Thanks for the update Dr Jeff!

Some of you Florida folks that are still wanting rain, I am so sorry. I know truly in some areas it rains all around you but avoids your neighborhood.

There are still some dry places in the Panhandle and along the Gulf coast but m ost of the state looks good.
And when this updates this afternoon around 4pm it will have a lot of "blue" from yesterday/last night's rains.

Here in Broward county those folks that live East of 95 close to the beach rarely get rain
While I get tons of it out in the western Burbs of Sunrise, Plantation, Weston, etc.

My house rain gauges have reported this:

Monday morning (from Sat & Sun rains) 1"

Wed morning: 1.4"
Sat morning (this morning) 1.2"


So my neighborhood has had 3.6" of rain in last week! Our canals are up the rims and storm drains are full. Pools are overflowing and streets have a hard time finding a place for the water to drain.

Most of Florida is looking good these days.






We don't need another tropical system tromping across Florida.. this our 3rd rain maker this spring already! YIKES!!!
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Wow. That east side is a monster for potential rainfall right now.

Canadian now takes it straight into NOLA, as a mid-grade TS, after a brief stall.


If it happens exactly that way, I will take it. We could use the rain. However, I am sure Texas would appreciate that scenario much more. I am not putting any stock into models until after the data from the hunters is in.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Based on radar estimated 1 hour running totals, if the eastern bands were to train over someone for 24 hours on land, they would get over 19 inches of rain.
yes its a huge rain maker alright, so far its staying offshore for the most part
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
Quoting luvtogolf:
Crown Weather says no chance for Florida. Expect landfall around Corpus Christi as a minimal hurricane.


It does seem that way. The ridge will be in place, and the envelope is open to the west right now anyway.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.