Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

Share this Blog
32
+

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 296 - 246

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

No...I was quoting your comment to highlight how they were saying rapid intensification is unlikely with upper-level cyclonic flow in the area.

Unforutnately...they are probably right about not getting much rain in your area though. With the upper level cyclonic circulation in the west Gulf...that will keep the heaviest precip to the northeast of the storm's center....sorry for the news...
That is OK South Central Texas is desert like anyway with mainly drought with an occasional flood. LOL. Been here over 40 years but alot of droughts and record heat the past 12 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All of us in South Florida are closely watching this system. Previous of it forming we have been getting slammed with rain for the past few weeks. Anything else would be flood potential. SO if a storm were to form and head this way, worst case is that South Florida becomes a flood zone. Best case is that it heads to Texas where rain is much needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
294. emguy
Quoting Hurricanes305:


The GFS actually have been doing an ok job up to this point. We will see if it is correct or not in the next couple of days. By the way here is my odds for Debby's Landfall Texas/Mexico: 45%, MI/AL/LA: 25%, Florida: 30%.


GFS does continue to do well with this. It only makes sense though...this model has been consistently locked into a pholosophy way longer than the other models. Interesting notes would be that 96L may be a smidge ahead on schedule in gaining lattitude. Otherwise...Another very interesting note would be that at this general latitude...the GFS saw a wsw-ene egg shaped low with lowest pressures and deepest convection on the eastern side...Now...look at the satellite and 3 words come to mind...dead on target. Later on, this will shead some of that oblong mess on the west side as she tightens up further.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nearly 9,000 evacuated as Utah fire explodes Posted on June 23, 2012 June 23, 2012 – SALT LAKE CITY — Thousands of homes were evacuated from two small Utah communities on Friday as high winds whipped up a brush fire triggered by target shooters and pushed the flames toward houses and a nearby explosives factory. The so-called Dump fire erupted Thursday in the Kiowa Valley near a landfill for Saratoga Springs, a town of 18,000 on the west shore of Utah Lake, about 35 miles south of Salt Lake City. Nearly 9,000 people had been evacuated, Utah County Sheriff’s Sgt. Spencer Cannon told The Deseret News.... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47926409/ns/weather/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, it's moving west. It appears to have missed what ever window the GFS thought it was going through.

1000mb+ steering guidance map says it should go straight west, at least until it intensifies a bit...
The GFS hasn't necessary missed the coc moving west... This could be the split that it's been showing for awhile now.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Quoting ILwthrfan:
If 96L ejects its llc, its going to have to start the whole process over. I know it looks better the first few hours this morning than yesterday but again that llc is moving away from convection.


Same as it ever it was... convection on the east looks healthier, probably due to Dmax helping this am, but I think we may still have to watch these LLCs getting spit out and reforming.

Still not going to believe ANY model until one can stay within the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NASA sees tropical trouble brewing in southern Gulf of Mexico
Posted on June 23, 2012

June 23, 2012 – GULF OF MEXICO - It’s quite likely that the fourth tropical cyclone of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season is brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico, more specifically, in the Yucatan Channel. The Yucatan Channel lies between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Tropical depressions seem to have a habit of forming on weekends, and this low appears to be following that habit. On Friday, June 22 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), System 96L was located near 22.5 North and 89.5 West, near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GOES-13 satellite continually monitors the eastern U.S. and provides updated visible and infrared imagery. An image from June 22 at 1601 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT) shows a large low pressure area near the Yucatan’s northern coast with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the image, some of the thunderstorms near the center of the low appear to be higher than the surrounding clouds, which indicates they are higher and stronger. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that atmospheric pressure on the surface continues to fall, indicating that the low pressure area is intensifying. Forecasters at NHC give System 96L a 70 percent chance of becoming the fourth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane season, sometime over the weekend. Meanwhile, System 96L is expected to move slowly northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend (June 23-24). The NHC notes “Interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend. Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and southern Florida through Saturday.” -Physics

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NAEFS wind probablistic guidance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I will say 95% it going to FL The GFS is doing a Good job


I wouldn't say 95% I had some good confidence a couple days ago it would head towards the west coast of Florida but I've done enough analysis to tell me either direction has about an equal shot. You can actually see in the last few frames that there is literally a split flow going west and east and the low is beginning to flatten out even though it is getting better organized, it is essence being "squeezed" up against the ridge.

The GFS should be at least right in regards to most of the moisture and energy being drawn towards Florida regardless of the low level vort path. This seems to be the way local forecasters and the NWS are leaning right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sandbarhappy:


The end of May is a good time to review your storm kits and evac plans.

This particular storm is not something to get into a tizzy about, only a gentle reminder that we on the Gulf Coast always need to be prepared. Please don't try to start a panic.

I'll be ecstatic to even get any rain here on Galveston.


no no i wasn't trying to do that...i was just suggesting to look over everything if you haven't already...wasn't meant to cause any hard feelings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Appears that 96L llc is moving west and its thunderstorms are being sheared to the east?
Yeah. I'd say the low level circulation is dropping SW right now. It's going to be hard for convection to build over the center if it keeps this up.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
283. 7544
Quoting Hurricanes305:


The GFS actually have been doing an ok job up to this point. We will see if it is correct or not in the next couple of days. By the way here is my odds for Debby's Landfall.
Texas/Mexico: 45%, MI/AL/LA: 25%, Florida: 30%.


yeap the new run will be interesting to see anyone think it will join the west camp now or stick with the east over fla run ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A lot of folks are looking at the satellite imagery and thinking the storm is a lot closer to FL than it really is.

I was with some family this morning and they were all saying, "it is already close to making landfall in FL" based on just the imagery..

very misleading
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Sat, 23 Jun 2012 14:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (140°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 44.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (166°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.66 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5908
Quoting hydrus:
There is very good outflow on the S.E side. This makes me worry.

But..the outflow on the west side is non-existent thanks to upper level cyclonic circulation in the west Gulf. That eastern outflow will let this develop...but with the other half choked...its not goig to be rapid...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sandbarhappy:


The end of May is a good time to review your storm kits and evac plans.

This particular storm is not something to get into a tizzy about, only a gentle reminder that we on the Gulf Coast always need to be prepared. Please don't try to start a panic.

I'll be ecstatic to even get any rain here on Galveston.
I will be ecstatic if that is all that happens with this. I do admit when I see a system in the gulf I get nervous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Appears that 96L llc is moving west and its thunderstorms are being sheared to the east?


Yes, it's moving west. It appears to have missed what ever window the GFS thought it was going through.

1000mb+ steering guidance map says it should go straight west, at least until it intensifies a bit...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If 96L ejects its llc, its going to have to start the whole process over. I know it looks better the first few hours this morning than yesterday but again that llc is moving away from convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, Wunderground, I haven't slept in this late since college. I guess blogging till 2 am will do that.

Are we still dealing with several swirls waiting for consolidation, or has one won out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
26n, 88w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is very good outflow on the S.E side. This makes me worry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
NWS is saying No Big Deal here and I am South of Austin, there is NO rain in our future forecast but the High Pressure may move a little west by next weekend and drop us temporarily below 100. 96L is moving north at 9 mph right now and all the rain is in Florida. Looks like if Storms develops it wont be bringing much to Texas is what NWS is saying.

No...I was quoting your comment to highlight how they were saying rapid intensification is unlikely with upper-level cyclonic flow in the area.

Unforutnately...they are probably right about not getting much rain in your area though. With the upper level cyclonic circulation in the west Gulf...that will keep the heaviest precip to the northeast of the storm's center....sorry for the news...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I will say 95% it going to FL The GFS is doing a Good job


The GFS actually have been doing an ok job up to this point. We will see if it is correct or not in the next couple of days. By the way here is my odds for Debby's Landfall.
Texas/Mexico: 45%, MI/AL/LA: 25%, Florida: 30%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Strong cells in 96l's north and south quadrants
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
whats the shear maps right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop


Best guess...87/26
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherlover94:
I would highly recommend that folks along the western Louisiana to the southern Texas coast to look over there emergency evacuation plans and check the storm kits to make sure you have everything you MAY need. Its not set in stone yet by any means. Now would be a good time to review everything just in case.


The end of May is a good time to review your storm kits and evac plans.

This particular storm is not something to get into a tizzy about, only a gentle reminder that we on the Gulf Coast always need to be prepared. Please don't try to start a panic.

I'll be ecstatic to even get any rain here on Galveston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Appears that 96L llc is moving west and its thunderstorms are being sheared to the east?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is Levi's tropical tidbit up yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
:Love Butterfly World on Sample... Getting more expensive each year to get in. My grand-daughter freaks out when one lands on her.. We went last month, the Lori parrots freak her out also... They can really bite when they want to.


Go to my blog, I buy the season pass, I take the grands there a lot so worth it.
My grand daughter has been holding and feeding those lorikeats since she was 2 yrs old. letting them on her head and 2 or 3 on her arms while feeding them.
And she is a natural butterfly whisper, they land all over her.
We also go to Flamingo Gardens all the time and feed the Ibis and peacocks...

we are "off topic" and will get yelled at soon! LOL


back to weather: so some of you say Texas/Mexico (and they need the rain)
some say North Gulf Coast.. and some of you
want a Florida hit...
bummer.. I don't want a Florida hit...
most of us are plenty wet!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


they don't count apparently

Most of the convection is on the east side anyways, it is a lopsided system.Maybe down the road the Western Gulf is in play if you believe the majority of the models. Tropical Storms typically have far reaching effects away from the landfall location. As you can see with the rain in Florida. ( where many think it won't make landfall)I've read many posts here saying it will make landfall at x city, as is that will be the only city effected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something I really hadn't been paying much attention to...

ULL in the NW Gulf right now, seen on Water Vapor. Seems too far south to allow an extremely strong storm to form, unless the ULL moves N and gets out of the way, it will shear off the cloud tops and prevent west side outflow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


To add to comment 234...see my point?
NWS is saying No Big Deal here and I am South of Austin, there is NO rain in our future forecast but the High Pressure may move a little west by next weekend and drop us temporarily below 100. 96L is moving north at 9 mph right now and all the rain is in Florida. Looks like if Storms develops it wont be bringing much to Texas is what NWS is saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
already getting some "outer bands" from this thing in the gulf.. hard rain for a few mins then quickly goes by...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.


Hey Drak! Glad to see you here this hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:


I am in NW Lauderhill, surrounded by Sunrise and Tamarac. (Commercial & Pine Island)
Butterfly World is in Coconut Creek where my avatar was taken last week.

Congratulations on your win last week; at least you had money to spend at Penn Dutch!
:Love Butterfly World on Sample... Getting more expensive each year to get in. My grand-daughter freaks out when one lands on her.. We went last month, the Lori parrots freak her out also... They can really bite when they want to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I will say 95% it going to FL The GFS is doing a Good job
Quoting emguy:
It's unfornate that a lot of folks were not able to see this as it unfolded last night. A wind surge moved up into the NE quadrant of the gulf...Several "gyres" popped out along the way, but it was clear with that wind surge that things would get going further north. The system has worked off all of those gyres and the low is just underneath the western edge of the convection. At this point...the system is north of where the models called...well to the east as well. Ahead of schedule for sure, but will likely slowdown a bit now. As it was, I figured this was an eastern gulf event as eastern gulf systems stay in the eastern gulf in June. As before, I still believe the GFS had a bite on it although not clear cut in it's solution...and now that things are where they are, the door on the westward models has likely been slammed shut. This is a North Florida in June type tropical storm that will likely cross the shore beween Tampa and Apalachicola.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yes, water is plenty warm over the entire GOM. It's the upper level environment and the dry air to the west that are slowing down development.


I f there is dry air in the western gulf,how do some models strengthen it to a ts/hurricane?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4956
Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.


Hi Drak. :D
Nice to see you this season.
Where've you been?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning, everybody!

As I would have expected, 96L is extremely close to becoming a TD/TS right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Not sure where you are in Broward Gamma, but I did win $48 dollars last Sunday at Seminole Casino in Coconut Creek, then spent it all at Penn Dutch.


I am in NW Lauderhill, surrounded by Sunrise and Tamarac. (Commercial & Pine Island)
Butterfly World is in Coconut Creek where my avatar was taken last week.

Congratulations on your win last week; at least you had money to spend at Penn Dutch!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
what about everyone east of those locations ????????????????


they don't count apparently
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning Again,

Thanks for the update Dr Jeff!

Some of you Florida folks that are still wanting rain, I am so sorry. I know truly in some areas it rains all around you but avoids your neighborhood.

There are still some dry places in the Panhandle and along the Gulf coast but m ost of the state looks good.
And when this updates this afternoon around 4pm it will have a lot of "blue" from yesterday/last night's rains.

Here in Broward county those folks that live East of 95 close to the beach rarely get rain
While I get tons of it out in the western Burbs of Sunrise, Plantation, Weston, etc.

My house rain gauges have reported this:

Monday morning (from Sat & Sun rains) 1"

Wed morning: 1.4"
Sat morning (this morning) 1.2"


So my neighborhood has had 3.6" of rain in last week! Our canals are up the rims and storm drains are full. Pools are overflowing and streets have a hard time finding a place for the water to drain.

Most of Florida is looking good these days.






Yeah here in Pinellas we are technically on the drier end compared to everyone else, and while I am jealous that we had less than surrounding counties, I'm surprised we are in yellow because the grass is bright green and there is plenty of water in the drain ditches and lakes.ponds. We seem close to "normal" now. Although I'd like to see a lot more rain. I am expecting a lot more rain, I have been saying for days now the majority of widespread heavier rainfall will fall on Sunday and Monday(later this evening too).

Rainfall the past few days has just been typical southeast tropical flow regime, some areas getting a few inches and other not much on any given day.


The west Coast of Florida will likely become a rainfall target the next couple days, here in Pinellas we tend to really be a target for very heavy rainfall totals from tropical cyclones or any low pressure system in the gulf because of the way we stick out. Ive seen many tropical storms and hurricanes dump impressive rainfall as they come into the gulf even if the center completely misses the area. We are a favorable region for cyclonic banding to target when a system is in the gulf. That being said I think that yellow on the drought map will disappear in the next couple days and become dark green or blue.


I also fear for southwest Florida and Naples as they have an even wetter Climate then up here in Central Florida but they have been an even drier localized dry region amidst all the beneficial rainfall the past few weeks. I'd be really frustrated if I lived in Naples, historically its a target for heavy rains but they've really missed out so far for June.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
Leaving for intercept soon. Destination....


Oh crap..

Those westward tracks could do some significant damage. Beach erosion could be severe due to the fact that storms rarely come in from that direction, therefore nailing areas that do not normally catch the brunt of the high seas. If 96L is a slow mover or stalls close to the coast, big time beach erosion. Ultimately, a westward track is expected, but there is time for things to change.The GFS still wants to push this system north and west.CIMSS 84 hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That sucks E46........Been there after Wilma..........It took 3 years to finally settle with my insurance company to finally get a new roof.......I have paid my premiums on time for many many years...THEN when I have a problem it is like pulling teeth for them to help me...They rank up there with car salesmen.


Yeah...I've just signed a contract for roof replacement, who knows how long its going to take to get the contractor out here to actually do it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GPTGUY:
96L kind of looks like a sloppy version of Hurricane Earl from 1998.



Or like Hermine. If only Debby could do this.. there'd be enough water in that fat raintail of hers to fill up the Highland Lakes and centex aquifers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 296 - 246

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
74 °F
Overcast