Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Two storms again




All that means is it's confusing the moisture pumped along the trough and over developing it with it's own localized low.

I'd just ignore the eastern-most low; treat it as a patch of "showers and storms".
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
I've heard in some cases that a ULL just west of a center can help improve outflow and venilate a system. Is this true?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Two storms again

Hello,if this the latest GFS run? if so can you provide a link to see the Model run,thank you!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Goog thing I dont work for the NHC. This LOW looks like at least a TD to me. Me thinks they will skip TD and go straight to Debbie.

So much for my forcast of no development.

Oh yea, I am still in the gome (maybee not much longer) It ait Debbir untill NHC says so. My local met is refering it to Debbie
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Quoting tornadodude:


B



C
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
For the models that show it going over FL, do they have it out of there by tuesday night?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 23/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.


Wait, so they aren't flying at all for today either?

Um...

that sucks.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Two storms again

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Being real....even WU presents a 53 mph Storm with a lot of uncertainty about where it will go...


Infamous spiderweb in the model spread. Talk about arachnophobia...forecaster's worst nightmare!

Quoting washingtonian115:
I lost power yesterday after a server thunderstorm came through with 70mph gust.Large tree branches snapped off and the hail was coming down hard.I see I didn't miss much with 96L.As I predicting it'll probably getting named tomorrow.

Yikes! That front only gave me some regular t-storms when it passed over me in Michigan on Thursday. Although my handle name is NCH2009...I now live in Michigian...just to make things more confusing...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting Drakoen:
On the verge of becoming a tropical storm.

mo better by the minute!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
Now that I can see the west side banding I can't believe how afar north the COC is. I am just glad SE FL is in the clear from all models.
TX And the gulf coast you can have it. I am tired of the rain

Pembroke pines FL rain
Last 24 hours .83 in
Last week 3.60 in
Last month 15.29 in

Good luck to all wish casters!
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96L is only half filled in with convection and covers a huge amount of the gulf already.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3854
Quoting Bitmap7:
looks like her center is due south of Panama City Florida,What longtitude is that?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
42 hours... As I predicted, going nowhere



It sat there for three days last night..THREE DAYS..
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Quoting Bitmap7:
shes looking better and better
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
381. emguy
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Have you notice that the LLC on the surface maps is moving west away from the main convection. I believe a new LLC will develop or in the process of developing around 25.5N/86.5W and moving North < 5mph.


That was the final of about four (4) vorticities/gyres to get belched out from beneath the thunderstorms in the last 24 Hours. At one point last night I posted the following image showing three (3) of them (red circles) and the area to watch for development (blue circle). Each on of these looks good as it pops out, but has lost it's support after it comes out from underneath the thunderstorms. This was just part of the formative process on this one, and has been seen on some others in the past. As this moves out, it will spin down and become absorbed in the flow. Through each of these processes...the center has contracted farther...we are now at a point where it is highly likely we have seen the last of these to pop out. Here's that pic I described with the three gyres (red) and anticipated development area (blue), which I posted last night.
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Quoting shawn26:
I am very curious o see where the GFS is on the next run even without HH data. After the HH data gets inputed, how long does it take for the models to catch up with it usually?


It doesn't effect model runs already in progress, only the next full initialization, so we probably won't get a model output that uses HH data until 8pm this evening, as the runs that generate the 2pm outputs will already be in progress before the HH gets out there.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


3rd! :-)


thanks to yall on the blog i learned something over the years lol thanx for not saying i was out in left field lol
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42 hours... As I predicted, going nowhere

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 23/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.
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Quoting GPTGUY:
96L kind of looks like a sloppy version of Hurricane Earl from 1998.



looks like a strong cold front ....lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
Quoting Jedkins01:


It looks like its beginning to stall or perform a loop to me, either way, if it is the west side of Central and South Florida will soon be swamped with repeated rounds of intense rainfall as energy rotates out to the northeast around the system.

oh by the way, tornado potential is building on the east side of our low:










Also these maps are rather interesting, fluid trapping is a great way to find a surface vort center by the way for those who don't know:








Yeah, there were some TVSs showing up on the Key West radar heading north.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
Quoting sunlinepr:
GFS keeps spliting 96L.... Is the shear going to blow some of that convection to the Atl?

Is the GFS predicting a split, cut-off low or did it pick up on that ULL off the East Coast?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Second this.


3rd! :-)
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Models

Some of the models are down right interesting... all three camps (NOLA,FL,and Texas) can start wishcasting.

Right now its still following the NFI model
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Up to now and Being real....even WU presents a 53 mph Storm with a lot of uncertainty about where it will go...

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

But..the outflow on the west side is non-existent thanks to upper level cyclonic circulation in the west Gulf. That eastern outflow will let this develop...but with the other half choked...its not goig to be rapid...
Good. I hope it chokes the life right out of it.
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The center of pre-Debbie is sitting right over a nice warm pool from the Gulf eddy/loop current at the moment feeding off the warmer temps. We should start to see increased convection and banding features develop on the West side by this evening.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9515
Can someone post the 850mb Vorticity map?
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Quoting Noodoggy:
here are my thoughts on the whole split model thing. that llc is gonna head west today...and another llc will develop under the convection and eventually head east like gfs says. obviously this storm is not gonna be too strong. but given the number of L's the models have been spitting out over the past few days, I think that the stacking in the atmosphere has never really gotten a chance to happen and what you get is the wide divergence on model tracks. i think the convection is too strong to have a typical die off when a llc veers off thus this really interesting possible Debby. just my 2 cents. thanks for the fun blog!


Second this.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
24 hours out.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33142
Quoting sunlinepr:
Wind shear tendency...



Remember this are just a guide too, but I'd say shear is higher here than what is being depicted there. Thanks for posting this CybrTeddy. You have a link to these goodies?
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24 hours... It will probably stall it now.

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I lost power yesterday after a server thunderstorm came through with 70mph gust.Large tree branches snapped off and the hail was coming down hard.I see I didn't miss much with 96L.As I predicting it'll probably getting named tomorrow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18303
I looked at the models like 3-4 weeks ago,joked with my buddy in swf that there would be something tropical in the eastern gulf like june 19020,GFS has had this for a very long time and even the landfall in northern florida. its just bizzaro!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Was there not a swirl/llc that just got covered by convection or we switched? Still trying to catch up on everything.


still jumping around, IMO.

naked swirls keep getting ejected. This is why I like the split idea the GFS has shown a couple of times now. don't think it'll be two separate cyclones, but energy going East across FL, and low heading west towards Texas, neither of which become to terribly strong.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah. I'd say the low level circulation is dropping SW right now. It's going to be hard for convection to build over the center if it keeps this up.


It looks like its beginning to stall or perform a loop to me, either way, if it is the west side of Central and South Florida will soon be swamped with repeated rounds of intense rainfall as energy rotates out to the northeast around the system.

oh by the way, tornado potential is building on the east side of our low:










Also these maps are rather interesting, fluid trapping is a great way to find a surface vort center by the way for those who don't know:








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12z GFS... Initialization looks good...

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I am very curious o see where the GFS is on the next run even without HH data. After the HH data gets inputed, how long does it take for the models to catch up with it usually?
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Dr. Masters keeps mentioning dry air. He might want to use this.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33142
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I thought the trof that finally moves her over florida comes on monday?


The trof may end up leaving it behind
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353. xcool
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Quoting seriousman1:


levi has been on the texas coast since day 1 with debby...he even said it would stall south of the louisiana coast then move west into texas...LEVI is a sharp dude who defeinitely knows what hes talking about...i for one am glad he is on here...


Hmmm...I was thinking further south along the TX/MX border a couple of days ago on my blog...so naturally I would hope the GFS is wrong :)

With 96L being more north...then Levi is going to be correct...somewhere along the TX coast instead of the TX/MX border area.

I am waiting for the first NHC advisory before I put out another "guess" on my blog...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting sunlinepr:


What's the shear forecast?


Look at the water vapor, small upper low off the Texas coast. Once that moves SW it should help to lessen the westerly shear.
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Here's the visible satellite... Definitely drifting WSW, slowly.
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349. emguy
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


What coordinates are you placing the LLC that it's under convection?


In general...there is a broad and elongated low oriented wsw-ese...but everything it taking shape around 26N, 86W. It will take a little more time to dump some of the loose baggage on the western flank, but models such as the GFS showed this elongated system in the early goings with the strongest vorticity on the east side...so far...so good.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


In that frame, the center is naked at about 25.8N and 87.8W.


We should see convection start firing early afternoon.
Was there not a swirl/llc that just got covered by convection or we switched? Still trying to catch up on everything.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3854
I thought the trof that finally moves her over florida comes on monday?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5253
Shear tendency reveals shear is decreasing to the west of 96L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24603

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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