Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
VIA NWSCHAT- NHC Room NHC has confirmed T.D 4 with a wind speed of 38 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 1003 MB. However, before issuing official advisories Hurricane hunters need to explore all quadrants

Right, just like yesterday you said they were going to show a Category 3 headed towards Texas?

You're not supposed to share information from NWSChat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
I think we got way too many gyre's for my brain to handle....quit with the gyre's

Indeed some risk personal salvation seems over it.

LoL

We have a Mean center, yadda,yada, yada, with embedded vortice['s,,

well, itsa monsoonal Gyre trying to beat the SW shear.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
For those interested in steering, probably the best tool would be to monitor the 500mb heights. The SPC Mesoanalysis is great for that. Click on Basic UA and then 500mb.

SPC Mesoanalysis Page
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


so what is the point of it being private if someone jumps on here and tells everyone what they are discussing?


Clearly right before you enter the chat room there is a disclaimer about giving out the info that you receive in the chat but I doubt the NHC is going to call the police on you or be able to track you down by a screen name
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Any idea if future-Debbie could cause a dry, windy area in TX covered with wildfires like last year?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
940. amd
Latest recon observations are interesting. Despite being NE of the original vortex (25.9N 87.9W), recon has found winds out of the NE or ENE and pressures lower than that in the vortex. This strongly suggests that those who thought the original vortex is NOT the main LLC will probably be correct.
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939. 900MB
Okay, I guess I am looking too closely now because I see 4 possible spins and I haven't even had a drink yet!
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


am I right by saying with it at 992mil it looks like Debby will be a rain maker, well much needed for Texas? the way it's having all this trouble trying to consolidate it shouldn't be much of a storm, Am I right or just wrong? Cause I don't think I've read on anyone's post it's gonna be much of anything,

sheri
depends the path it takes if she is going to Texas a cat 1 to cat 2 seems about right intensity hope it stays as just a rain maker.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting Tazmanian:




the nhc this said in the two that this will be skiping TD and going right too a TS

Right now, there going off of recon data, just because they put it in the wording dosent mean it will happen
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Pat, how are tide levels in NOLA, gonna have a good fetch coming in there while this baby churns a few days


They are very high like 2-3 feet up
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting mobileshadow:


I would trust what comes out of NHC chat before what was posted in the two since it's for NWS mets and Ema people and first responders. Sorry Taz but you are wrong :)


seriously? What is in the TWO is posted by the NHC
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting scottsvb:
recon now finding lower pressure where I suspected around 26.5N and 87.1W around 1000-1001mbs
is that under the cloud shiel?
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Quoting Patrap:
Avila is da Man.


Hey pat! Had I swim meet on the south shore and noticed it got really windy this AM
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Pat, how are tide levels in NOLA, gonna have a good fetch coming in there while this baby churns a few days
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by the way if this storms gos too a TS and skip TD this would be the 4th storm this year to do so



i think its time too drop the TD part has this skiping right too a TS is comeing more and more it seems
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting Tazmanian:




the nhc this said in the two that this will be skiping TD and going right too a TS


I would trust what comes out of NHC chat before what was posted in the two since it's for NWS mets and Ema people and first responders. Sorry Taz but you are wrong :)
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Quoting charlottefl:


It is ATM, but it may just be rotating within the larger gyre of the low, so there's really no way to tell expect to wait for the satellites to update. If it is a "true" LLC it will rotate back to the East on the succeeding satellite updates.


I think we got way too many gyre's for my brain to handle....quit with the gyre's
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the NHC said it is moving northwest so doesnt that end the TX/FL debate?
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Quoting mobileshadow:

There is no link since it private government chat


so what is the point of it being private if someone jumps on here and tells everyone what they are discussing?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
If 96L is classified TS Debby by this afternoon watches or warnings will probably be issued from Grand Isle, LA. to Indian Pass, FL.
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recon now finding lower pressure where I suspected around 26.5N and 87.1W around 1000-1001mbs

peeps beat me to it.. :) looking at alot of data here
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z UKMET


am I right by saying with it at 992mil it looks like Debby will be a rain maker, well much needed for Texas? the way it's having all this trouble trying to consolidate it shouldn't be much of a storm, Am I right or just wrong? Cause I don't think I've read on anyone's post it's gonna be much of anything,

sheri
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the NHC are actually thinking in issuing advisories of ts Debby not td 4.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I mapped out the low clouds from the recent NASA Hi-res pass, and from what I can tell we have a slightly elongated low with 2 eddies in it that are merging. This should be declared a T.S. after the Hurricane Hunters are done.



BTW do you all like me doing these drawings? I do them because I think it helps everyone understand things a little simpler and easier to understand.

Isn't that LLC quite removed from the convection,and won't strengthen?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Link? The wording in the TWO made it seem like they're leaning more towards TS Debby.

There is no link since it private government chat
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
VIA NWSCHAT- NHC Room NHC has confirmed T.D 4 with a wind speed of 38 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 1003 MB. However, before issuing official advisories Hurricane hunters need to explore all quadrants




the nhc this said in the two that this will be skiping TD and going right too a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
17:58:30Z 26.583N 87.217W 973.3 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 245 meters
(~ 804 feet) 1000.9 mb
(~ 29.56 inHg) - From 86° at 15 knots
(From the E at ~ 17.2 mph) 24.0°C*
(~ 75.2°F*) 24.0°C*
(~ 75.2°F*) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:49:00Z (first observation), the observation was 300 miles (483 km) to the S (180°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1000.9mb pressure found by Recon!

175830 2635N 08713W 9733 00245 0009 +240 +240 086015 017 /// /// 05


further north and east than the swirl

the lowest pressure will be where they put the coordinates
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Euro will be going west again...

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The wind shear is coming down in GOM

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914. beell
For now, I guess you could say 96L is decoupled.
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Quoting thelmores:


Thats a flock of seagulls! LOL


Hiya thel, break out the MAgic MArker..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
is that the main llc exposed?
it is rotating far faster taht any of hte others were
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
911. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
anyone have the google earth recon link?


Go here.

Click on google earth then click the mission 1 to on, over on the right.
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Quoting Cat5hit:


46.03 MPH
ty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon everybody!! Any news on the flight today yet?




read back a few pages and you find all the info you need too no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
1000.9mb pressure found by Recon!

175830 2635N 08713W 9733 00245 0009 +240 +240 086015 017 /// /// 05
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Patrap:
LOL..dats a swirl?

LOL


Thats a flock of seagulls! LOL
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Good afternoon everybody!! Any news on the flight today yet?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
anyone have the google earth recon link?


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic .kmz
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
VIA NWSCHAT- NHC Room NHC has confirmed T.D 4 with a wind speed of 38 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 1003 MB. However, before issuing official advisories Hurricane hunters need to explore all quadrants


Link? The wording in the TWO made it seem like they're leaning more towards TS Debby.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Avila is da Man.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting Levi32:
There's the 2nd swirl coming out of the convection to the east, verifying that the other swirl is not the main center but just one of multiple vortices.

Good catch.
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VIA NWSCHAT- NHC Room NHC has confirmed T.D 4 with a wind speed of 38 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 1003 MB. However, before issuing official advisories Hurricane hunters need to explore all quadrants
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Quoting Patrap:
It is ATM, but it may just be rotating within the larger gyre of the low, so there's really no way to tell expect to wait for the satellites to update. If it is a "true" LLC it will rotate back to the East on the succeeding satellite updates.

There is ONLY one Low.

Click Fronts, and MSLP here to see it tagged.

96L Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
That's pretty slick. Amazing if this is what the GFS has been predicting all along.
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48 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
anyone have the google earth recon link?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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