Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Maybe it's real time sensitive because it's a real back and forth between the experts. But once a consensus has been reached it's okay to pass on to the public. Hopefully that's the case, I like that it can be shared. The NHC chat.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i see westerly winds, mawb doesnt.
im confused

No west winds

Link
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did I miss a Vortex report??


The Hurricane Hunter is still in the blob and several here are posting the chat info. There is nothing official at this time.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 443
Quoting MississippiWx:


They never went on a path that would give them pure west winds.
Oops, my bad then. I don't use Google Earth so all I have for Recon data is what's on the NHC site.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
people all over the world...join in... the swirl train..swirl train
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may be the nhc nos more then what we dont and the nhc has more tools too ues then we do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114924
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15104
Quoting Cat5hit:
UGHHH.... Just get it over with and make it a TD/TS already.



LOL I agree
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
986. jpsb
Quoting RitaEvac:
Pat, how are tide levels in NOLA, gonna have a good fetch coming in there while this baby churns a few days
Tides are up in Galveston Bay. This could be another Francis for us, days of a fetch piling up water then the storm rolls in. TD Francis did a good bit of damage here in San Leon.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Via Twitter:

Weather Underground @wunderground
Hurricane Hunter finding solid westerly winds in #96L, plane continues to make its path through the system. #Debby




i see westerly winds, mawb doesnt.
im confused
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Via Twitter:

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground
Hurricane Hunter finding solid westerly winds in #96L, plane continues to make its path through the system. #Debby
Where? I haven't seen any here.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Quoting Hurricanes101:


i see a pretty big weakness there


The thing to watch will be the ridge after the initial shortwave moves through. How much is it able to build eastward if at all before the next shortwave.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1000.9mb was the lowest pressure, and no west winds were present.


They never went on a path that would give them pure west winds.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10200
Bastardi believes Debby will curl up towards LA then bank south west toward Tejas south of port oconner down to Brownsville. Central texas coast down to Mexico is target zone....
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Breaking: NHC Chat confirms NHC are planning on upgrading to Tropical Storm Debby track is still unknown at this time
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Quoting Levi32:
There's the 2nd swirl coming out of the convection to the east, verifying that the other swirl is not the main center but just one of multiple vortices.



TOO MANY DAMN SWIRLS ALREADY.........ENOUGH...TELL IT TO MAKE UP HER DAMN MIND....IS THIS ALL ATTRIBUTALE TO SHEAR?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
18:08:30Z 26.517N 86.700W 973.4 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 263 meters
(~ 863 feet) 1003.1 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg) - From 158° at 13 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 14.9 mph) 23.0°C*
(~ 73.4°F*) 23.0°C*
(~ 73.4°F*) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 6 knots*
(~ 6.9 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 5.2 knots* (~ 6.0 mph*)
40.0%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:59:00Z (first observation), the observation was 267 miles (429 km) to the S (180°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Certified storm chaser/emergency management only.


and broadcast media also has access to it
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Will the real COC please stand up?


I *LOL'D* for real...coke zero all over my keyboard.
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Via Twitter:

Weather Underground @wunderground
Hurricane Hunter finding solid westerly winds in #96L, plane continues to make its path through the system. #Debby


Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1000.9mb was the lowest pressure, and no west winds were present.


vortexes still competing?
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Orleans PArish

Coastal Flood Advisory

Statement as of 5:42 AM CDT on June 23, 2012

... Coastal Flood Advisory now in effect until 7 am CDT Monday...

* coastal flooding... minor coastal flooding of less than one
foot expected.

* Timing... flooding will occur during each high tide cycle.
Highest tides will occur in the afternoon hours.

* Impacts... minor overwash of low lying roadways in the
immediate vicinity of the coast. Tide levels will peak at 1 to
2 feet above astronomical tide today... possibly 2 to 3 feet
above astronomical tide Sunday. Actual flooding will be a foot
or less.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

If the system in the southern Gulf develops into a tropical
cyclone... then impacts will likely be greater than currently
being forecast for and a coastal Flood Warning will likely be
needed.
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Recon is finding consistent pressures of 1001-1003mb, but no west winds, so 96L will not be classified unless that changes.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Will the real COC please stand up?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting Patrap:
Of note..

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




and your point is pat?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114924
Quoting Skyepony:


No.


I didn't think so, I might have been trying to make a point about Hyping :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
850mb center by recon says it's near the surface or will be in the next few hours (3-12).. We will have a TS @ 5pm.. recon is currently pinning a LLC and will soon go into the T-STORM cluster to find the winds to mark the strength of the storm.. My best guess this will be a 45 or 50mph Tropical Storm at 5pm

LLC is near 26.2N and 87.2W
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Very common in this state of genesis to have multiple, and competing vortices.
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Of note..

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
extrapolated surface pressure about to break 1000mb based on the hh flight

winds of 30 kts not under the clouds

they are going for the cloud deck now, maybe theyll come back to the center later
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961. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did I miss a Vortex report??


No.
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1000.9mb was the lowest pressure, and no west winds were present.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
959. amd
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did I miss a Vortex report??


I should have stated where the wind shift (from ENE to WSW) was initially found by recon. My mistake.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Totals at least have come down from figures up over the 20" range. Still a lot of wetness for Florida.



they always do that.
when pensacola got the floods they stepped back from 11 down to 6 inches and 15 fell.
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Quoting gator23:

How do you have access to this info?

Certified storm chaser/emergency management only.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
955. Skyepony (Mod)
Odd thing about the low pressure there is wind direction don't support a closed vorticity (unless it's about to switch direction in which it's going in the wrong direction for this hemisphere. Winds aren't real high either like a hot tower or something. Enough of a remnant though they maybe holding off on the vortex message.
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Quoting Drakoen:
For those interested in steering, probably the best tool would be to monitor the 500mb heights. The SPC Mesoanalysis is great for that. Click on Basic UA and then 500mb.

SPC Mesoanalysis Page


i see a pretty big weakness there
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505
All one has to do is just follow the claims adjuster till Landfall.

pppfth
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting Hurricanes101:


seriously? What is in the TWO is posted by the NHC




thats ok hurrican101 i got mobileshadow on my ignore list any way so we can this move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114924
Quoting 900MB:
Okay, I guess I am looking too closely now because 1 see 4 possible spins and I haven't even had a drink yet!
LOL..by the time today is over we all will
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
Quoting mobileshadow:


I would trust what comes out of NHC chat before what was posted in the two since it's for NWS mets and Ema people and first responders. Sorry Taz but you are wrong :)

How do you have access to this info?
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Quoting amd:
Latest recon observations are interesting. Despite being NE of the original vortex (25.9N 87.9W), recon has found winds out of the NE or ENE and pressures lower than that in the vortex. This strongly suggests that those who thought the original vortex is NOT the main LLC will probably be correct.


Did I miss a Vortex report??
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Reading back though post, sorry if I was confusing anyone. Was saying LLC, but meant to put vort. There are two vorticies, one LLC according to recon. The one moving SW, is just a vort withing the larger gyre of rotation..
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For those wanting to know when we'll see Ernesto the GFS has been showing a storm developing off of Africa..and the Euro to some extent.Okay back to 96L.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16761
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
VIA NWSCHAT- NHC Room NHC has confirmed T.D 4 with a wind speed of 38 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 1003 MB. However, before issuing official advisories Hurricane hunters need to explore all quadrants

Right, just like yesterday you said they were going to show a Category 3 headed towards Texas?

You're not supposed to share information from NWSChat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.