Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:
until tomorrow when they do again, then monday they wont
Yes I'm very SURPRISE! the NHC completely discounted both the very realiable GFS and GFDL,but they are the expert!,will see what happens,I still don't buy this track,and I just want to make sure that everybody knows I'm not a Florida wishcaster,just what I see for several days is a vias toward the East,we still have couple of day to see if the GFS and GFDL change to the West.
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Quoting RickWPB:
Ha, you're right. My ignore list is 137 long now.


Mine has 75... and a lot of them are jasons, JFVs and Stormtops handles.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/ 205251.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
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1943. dearmas
When are the next set of runs and will they have recon data in them???

Thanks ;)
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Quoting canesugah:
local wild animal population a bit nervy. Not so much bird activity as usual, lizards are hiding, also weather doggies are alert.


Just saw the forcast track. Guess I can go tell the birdies to start singing again. The lizards may just have gone to the mountains for the weekend.
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A brief interruption from Debby-related news to bring you something we haven't seen in quite some time: an image of a nearly featureless solar disc. Just (relatively) tiny active area 1511 blemishes the otherwise perfect circle:

Click for larger image:

sun
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13806
Quoting washingtonian115:
. This will be the last storm of the season.



What is the date of the Mayan Super Doom forecast?
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Claudette in 2003 is a decent analog in landfall location and intensity.




Find a hurricane that is 2 times larger than the one your showing me and I will agree. Look how much space 1 band of Debbie takes.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
Just had a tornado touch down thirty minutes or so in north naples, and ran through NCH hospital off of Immokalee Rd. (for those of you who know the area). I even caught it on video.
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TWC ratings about to skyrocket
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760

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1935. Drakoen
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I personally see debby becoming a hurricane

OFF TOPIC ALERT

Tornado in S Dakota Yesterday:
Video SD Tornado TWC



That's an absolutely gorgeous, yet terrifying tornado.

Incredible photo.
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm still against Debby touching Mexico.. It just doesn't seem right... If she does head west as forecast, Northern Texas.
do you have a reason for that thinking ?
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Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


Max cat 1.

West side is still so weak, and with it moving this slow it'll probably hit land, and will have about a day of being half over land anyway before the CoC hits land, so about time the upper levels become favorable, so it doesn't seem likely to be a cat 2 at landfall.
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Quoting Patrap:
I never Poll on the weekends.


You never poll anyway lol
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Better hope we don't get a stall right near the coast, and dump feet of rain on someone down the road...
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Be Prepared for Nasty Hurricane Just In Case!

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Quoting Gaboo:
Anyone posted this yet??!?

000


oh boy :|
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
So floridians... What's your wish cast now
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Claudette in 2003 is a decent analog in landfall location and intensity.




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1925. KORBIN
Seems like the path of the storm is very uncertain at this point. Looking like a West Movement but not for a couple days, It's gonna get Soggy in FLA!
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1924. Patrap
I never Poll on the weekends.
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Quoting Gaboo:
Anyone posted this yet??!?

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA





you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1922. jpsb
Quoting hurricanejunky:
WOW! NHC discounting GFS...interesting...
Very interesting and perhaps a bit risky? But they had to make a call, so good for them at making a gusty call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1921. Gaboo
Anyone posted this yet??!?

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I personally see debby becoming a hurricane

OFF TOPIC ALERT

Tornado in S Dakota Yesterday:
Video SD Tornado TWC

Not really off topic if it's weather related.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


B/C. I just don't see any more than a 80MPH cane out of this.
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1918. RickWPB
Quoting THL3:
Just a lurker but I can tell its time to warm up the IGNORE button......
Ha, you're right. My ignore list is 137 long now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1917. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
. This will be the last storm of the season.

That's what the calabash tree said.
I fear that, for the first time, and due to AGW, it may be wrong.
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NWS in Austin is saying the High Pressure should back away from Texas by the End of Next Week this could allow Debby to move more North into Texas?
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1915. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

Has not stopped raining since yesterday afternoon.
It's great !

sigh....

Today is very nice, but we've been having intermittent showers over the past few days or so...
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Quoting THL3:
Just a lurker but I can tell its time to warm up the IGNORE button......


Agree, long overdue given some of the nonsense being written
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OMFG...I shot a crow for nothing...lol...seriously, this may ramp up. Hope everybody is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best!
You know i was only joking Patrap...you know your stuff.
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1912. DocBen
We tend to focus here on the warm waters of the Gulf and how it is warmer than the historical average. That makes sense - it is easy for us to see and understand. Less focus is placed on the colder upper atmosphere. That increases the temperature differential which can also strengthen storms - as was shown with Hurricane Chris - forcast to only reach storm status. Gonna be an interesting season I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And in the case of things getting nasty us along the Louisiana coast must be prepared...I can't stress this enough even though the current track is south of us all it takes is a slight movement northward in the track for us to get worse conditions and this strength forecast is not written in stone. Could easily have a hurricane hovering right at our coast...i'll be watching this one closely just to make sure I get no surprises
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I personally see debby becoming a hurricane

OFF TOPIC ALERT

Tornado in S Dakota Yesterday:
Video SD Tornado TWC
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting tropicfreak:


It's not over yet.... I can see the GFS scenario occuring too... Drak's not out of the woods yet.
hmm??? You know what I think the GFS is showing the convection that has blown away from the center affecting FL. while the center moves away and slowly but surely builds convection around it.
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Quoting pottery:

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.

Active hurricane season!
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Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

D for doomcast.
lol
jk
But really
D
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
1906. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pottery...what's is the weather like in Trinidad today?

Has not stopped raining since yesterday afternoon.
It's great !

sigh....
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Quoting pottery:

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.
. This will be the last storm of the season.
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Quoting Jebekarue:
I saw a flash on the screen for TWC that said Debby has formed about 20 minutes ago



Yes,Norcross announced it right before 5pm Eastern time
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Quoting Patrap:
I'm sure some phones are ringing.


From Trinty in Florida?
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Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

D.
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North Central FL, north of Ocala area, west of St. Auggie we are cloudy but dry so far. However just north of us spotty thunderstorms looks like a line across FL pushing N. Extreme outer band or front?

So far so good, but local wild animal population a bit nervy. Not so much bird activity as usual, lizards are hiding, also weather doggies are alert.
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1900. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.


Somewhere a Mayan Stone Carver is laughing?
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1899. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Check the FRONTS, Lat/Lon/, MSLP Boxes
ZOOM and skew active
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1898. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

F _ Certain DOOM

Hey pottery...what's is the weather like in Trinidad today?
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1897. THL3
Just a lurker but I can tell its time to warm up the IGNORE button......
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1896. DocBen
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


Cat 1
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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