Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ameister12:
Expect a possible renumber around 3:00-3:30.

I am waiting to put out my next blog post....got it written already...just waiting to see if this gets renumbered or not. I am waiting till 6 PM to post if it gets renumbered....
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Quoting weatherh98:


No

Bourbon is prolly rockin right now


prolly?
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gustav was no joke around here..... for those of us who stayed it was like a ghost town
night time worker here just waking up for the day
where does debbie look like shes going to go from the experienced members here?
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if Debby go to Fl and it is lol the GFS did a good good good job!!!
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Quoting flowrida:
Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood
holiday.inn?
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Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi is something else--he went there..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of


I lost my Grandfather in Audrey this is no Audrey...Audrey came in like a thief in the night...Been studying Audrey all my life...the night I get my degree and become a degreed Meteorologist officially in my speech I will deliver a Forecast for June 26-27, 1957 to my grandfather as a symbolic reverence...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey I'm not discounting anything yet.Shear is suppose to be favorable with heat content...


Well... for the time being that ULL is keeping 96L in check... should move away soon. I wonder if the models are underplaying the strength of 96L.
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1189. Grothar
Looks like it's really spinning fast :)



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1188. Patrap
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
hey everybody...will be out for most of the afternoon....im guessing we will have TS Debby when i get home tonight
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Quoting flowrida:
Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood


and how much do they pay this man.
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Quoting reedzone:


Tropical Storm Lee was fully Tropical.. I don't understand why many on here are denying that.. Look it up. Formed form a TROPICAL wave, became TROPICAL Depression, then a TROPICAL Storm. It may have had the look of a Subtropical Storm, but Lee was fully Tropical.


Yes, it was both fully tropical and very, very wet.

Broke the 1 day and 2 day rainfall total records in parts of Livingston and Tangipahoa parish, which was probably from 1983.

If not for having been in a drought before hand, there could have been widespread record or near record flooding in the Ticfaw and Natalbany basins.

It hasn't rained like that in about 15 years around here, and though it used to flood like that about once every year or two in March-April-May period during the 1980's...

Not even Katrina or Rita brought anywhere near that much rain. Lee doubled up on Katrina's total, based on both official data and my rain gauge in the back yard.
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Quoting flowrida:
Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood
how long have you lived in florida ???
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Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?


You joined the blog in 2010 and this issue has been raised here for the last two years.......Tape or masking tape is useless.....You need a "cover" on the widows like plywood to prevent projectiles from smashing in the window and allowing strong winds to invade the house and lift up the roof.......And check where you are relative to the "cone" when it comes out.
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Quoting mynameispaul:


Shut up Joe. Don't want to hear that kind of talk. lol
he.nailed.gilbert.oh.i.mean!
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1181. shfr173
Quoting LargoFl:
still looks like a split camp continuation to me lol
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Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood
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Quoting weatherh98:

No they found 1000.9


oh ok.
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1178. Patrap
Quoting mojofearless:


This is condescending. Is this rhetorical, or do you actually believe that New Orleanians are all of one mindset, rather than a population of individuals?


Fantastic re-tort.

plus 1.4million
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?
NOOOO relax nothing to be alarmed by just some heavy rain , if you are new to florida its like a normal afternoon thunderstorms, be concerned if its a high end tropical storm or hurricane until then RELAXXXXX
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1176. dewfree
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N88W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM S OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AT 30N87W TO THE LOW AT 26N88W CONTINUING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N90W 21N93W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GAIN
ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. IF THE PLANE FINDS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE FORMING AROUND THE
NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS MAINLY JUST E
OF THE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
RANGING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 84W-87W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
81W-87W. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF COAST. ALL AREAS
OF THE NRN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
GFDL back to Florida? lol
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now if Debby forms today the record for Dennis of 2005 will likely be shattered for the earliest D storm
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Link
Key West
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Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?


Use plywood
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Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi is something else--he went there..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of
Hey I'm not discounting anything yet.Shear is suppose to be favorable with heat content...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
Quoting Dakster:
Will the people of NOLA take it serious this time around?



This is condescending. Is this rhetorical, or do you actually believe that New Orleanians are all of one mindset, rather than a population of individuals?
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Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?



tap is ues less for windows when it comes too hurrican be too ues wood
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1167. LargoFl
..................................looking at this, GFS and GDFL put it into florida,wow GFS puts it in tampa bay
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36850
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi is something else--he went there..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of


Shut up Joe. Don't want to hear that kind of talk. lol
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Expect a possible renumber around 3:00-3:30.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi is something else--he went there..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of


What JB is always well known for...

Hype king.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 18:44:00Z
Coordinates: 25.7167N 88.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 974.0 mb (~ 28.76 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 245 meters (~ 804 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.5 mb (~ 29.57 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 303° at 7 knots (From the WNW at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: 23.9°C (~ 75.0°F)
Dew Pt: 23.9°C (~ 75.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think this is the lowest pressure Recon has found so far.

No they found 1000.9
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Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?
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1161. Patrap
Be sure to click the lat/Lon, MSLP, and FRONTS here

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1160. Gorty
Wow, its only the early part of the hurricane season and we will already be on our 4th named storm.
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Time: 18:44:00Z
Coordinates: 25.7167N 88.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 974.0 mb (~ 28.76 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 245 meters (~ 804 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.5 mb (~ 29.57 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 303° at 7 knots (From the WNW at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: 23.9°C (~ 75.0°F)
Dew Pt: 23.9°C (~ 75.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think this is the lowest pressure Recon has found so far.
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1158. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi is something else--he went there..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
so is it going to be a tropical strom at 5:00pm??


No renumber yet.
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Lowest pressure on second pass=1001.5 mbs
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Quoting bigwes6844:
okay i see now. so heres my next question, since this storm is edgeing the coast of Florida with the rain how far do u expect the warnings to go if named at 5?


It's going to depend on exactly where the HH and NHC determines the real LLC, plus their interpretation of the "actual" circulation size. Key West some of the mainland Florida coast is technically already experiencing TD and near TS conditions in squalls.

But they really issue watches and warnings based on the size and intensity of solid bands; the overall sustained wind field of the circulation, rather than outlying isolated storms.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
so is it going to be a tropical strom at 5:00pm??


No...but it may be a Tropical Storm.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
1153. Patrap




Sw shear aloft

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1152. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:
18:15 Viz

Nice pic, starting to see a little convention on the west (emphasis on a little). 96L might just get organized. Maybe I should go have a beer or two and wait for the 8PM. Sure hope I don't have to go into get ready mode.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
1151. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
With Convergence


looking at this pic, no wonder the warning cone may reach down to Tampa when they come out later today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36850
Quoting teammc:
We have TS Debby





no we dont
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so is it going to be a tropical strom at 5:00pm??
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LinkWV Loop
I'd like to hear more about steering if anyone has any insight, please share. Thx.
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Quoting Patrap:


No, the mean coc is well embedded in the Grids, its the Upper air steering that's giving the Models trouble on a consensus solution.


so, no matter where the models initialize the CoC the upper atmosphere is going to do the same thing with steering?

I don't understand that.

Wouldn't the position of the CoC ultimately be affected differently by the upper atmosphere depending on its coordinates?

Learning, Pat...be easy on me.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 371

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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