Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

Share this Blog
32
+

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1246 - 1196

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all look what i found


AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,


RENUMBER!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
1245. Patrap
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all look what i found


AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,


Bingo Tazaroo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all look what i found


AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,
Debby!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if NHC will bring out their Orion with the installed tail-doppler. The core of this storm is outside of land-based coverage. I would love to see the real time doppler pics from the plane if it is out for this storm.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
hey all look what i found


AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1240. amd
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
41 knot surface wind in the SW quad of the circulation.


The peak flight level winds with that observation was only 24 kts though.

185430 2519N 08830W 9729 00278 //// +209 //// 297022 024 041 014 01
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1239. Patrap
GOES-13 GOM VIZ 18:45 UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
1238. guygee
To turn the tables on the old tropical climatologist saw...in the pre-satellite, pre-aerial reconnaissance era this would have been a named storm right now, but since there is only a broad center throwing off temporary meso-vortices it is not named.

The non-counting on these types of storms at least partly offsets the isolated ones we find now that might have been missed in the ship-only era...a point often missed in the recent scientific literature...even if this particular storm turns out to be Debby a little later it still illustrates the point. This dilutes the argument that the storm count now in the satellite era is vastly inflated compared to the earlier era...the existence of these potential "early overcounts" are neglected by Landsea (2007), etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Willing to bet that was contaminated, surrounding winds where ~18kts.


Looks to be.

.5in/hr rates in the area.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting flowrida:
You have to be kidding me, I just put 20 rolls of masking tape on all of my windows!!


Earlier you said you duct taped your windows.....me thinks you are trolling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
have you all see that since 2010 in the finals days of June there is always activity in the gulf in 2010 was Alex in 2011 was Arlene and 2012 likely to be Debby.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting KORBIN:
Isn't it like 50k an hour to run these HH missions?

I think they might be looking in the wrong area, i am seeing a llc just West of major convection.

Is this just another spin off like other have discussed?


They are headed back into the western circulation right now, and should be able to do a full pattern on it. Hopefully, they'll make a pass due south of the center so we can also see any true westerly winds that might be there.


Come on, some of these people are double p.h.d., or equivalent, they aren't clueless. I mean OCS and a meteorology degree, and you figure some internet armchair QBs know better?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?


8-track tape
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
41 knot surface wind in the SW quad of the circulation.


Willing to bet that was contaminated, surrounding winds where ~18kts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1231. Zappy
Quoting RTSplayer:


Tell me you're joking?

It's been proven dozens of times that tape is USELESS in a tropical cyclone.

If it's a hurricane and you live on the coast, you should board up with either metal shutters or 3/4 inch plywood, preferably not particle board, because though particle is better than nothing, it's less resistant to puncture damage. If you live inland a few dozen miles, you probably don't need to board up unless it's category 3 or higher.


Tape is a waste of time. Either do nothing, or board up.

It's obvious that he's a troll...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting luvtogolf:
I see Joe B. has completely changed his thinking from a Florida landfall to Texas.


Finally pulled him over to my thinking (:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it looks like convection is trying to wrap around the center but is still looking like its getting sheared
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have a potentially life threatening situation and all the news media can talk about is that perverted man....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
41 knot surface wind in the SW quad of the circulation.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1225. Gorty
At least I didn't miss the naming of Debby. With Chris, I had no idea it got named. I just did my daily checking of the next TWO of the day and not knowing I will be seeing TS Chris on there...

Totally caught me by surprised. It went under my radar lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?


Tell me you're joking?

It's been proven dozens of times that tape is USELESS in a tropical cyclone.

If it's a hurricane and you live on the coast, you should board up with either metal shutters or 3/4 inch plywood, preferably not particle board, because though particle is better than nothing, it's less resistant to puncture damage. If you live inland a few dozen miles, you probably don't need to board up unless it's category 3 or higher.


Tape is a waste of time. Either do nothing, or board up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1223. ncstorm
CMC Ensembles
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1222. Patrap
18:48:30Z 25.550N 88.267W 973.5 mb
(~ 28.75 inHg) 260 meters
(~ 853 feet) 1002.9 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg) - From 346° at 18 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 20.7 mph) 23.0°C*
(~ 73.4°F*) 23.0°C*
(~ 73.4°F*) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 11.0 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
61.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:39:00Z (first observation), the observation was 310 miles (499 km) to the SSE (155°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 18:48:30Z (last observation), the observation was 325 miles (523 km) to the SSE (160°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting flowrida:
You have to be kidding me, I just put 20 rolls of masking tape on all of my windows!!




still it is worth less with a cat 1 2 3 or stronger hurricane


but i will admin it if this was olny a low end or upper end TS then tap sould do find
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1220. KORBIN
Isn't it like 50k an hour to run these HH missions?

I think they might be looking in the wrong area, i am seeing a llc just West of major convection.

Is this just another spin off like other have discussed?
Member Since: November 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
Any new info from Recon My Google Earth went down
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i see 3 spins on visible loop. looking to be rotating around a real broad low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thx
Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, June 23rd, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Quite a shift by the GFDL, puts it back into FL. Also the Low is more to the NE from the last fix.


Prepare some potentially really, really impressive rainfall for west central Florida, bring out the canoes boys.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see Joe B. has completely changed his thinking from a Florida landfall to Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1214. Levi32
Good afternoon.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, June 23rd, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting justsouthofnola:
gustav was no joke around here..... for those of us who stayed it was like a ghost town
night time worker here just waking up for the day
where does debbie look like shes going to go from the experienced members here?


Agreed. I was terrified during Gustav. Like getting kicked in the head by a horse and climbing back on three years later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1212. Patrap
me tinks y'all are being er, 'fooled' again.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
if Debby go to Fl and it is lol the GFS did a good good good job!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flowrida:
Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood
Scotch tape is good enough if you use enough of it, but I'll stick with plywood...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You have to be kidding me, I just put 20 rolls of masking tape on all of my windows!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
how long have you lived in florida ???


Not for long apparently....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting justsouthofnola:
gustav was no joke around here..... for those of us who stayed it was like a ghost town
night time worker here just waking up for the day
where does debbie look like shes going to go from the experienced members here?


I have NO eartly clue where Debby is going.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Rain is in WPB now!!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1205. Patrap
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N88W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM S OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AT 30N87W TO THE LOW AT 26N88W CONTINUING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N90W 21N93W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GAIN
ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. IF THE PLANE FINDS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE FORMING AROUND THE
NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS MAINLY JUST E
OF THE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
RANGING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 84W-87W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
81W-87W. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF COAST. ALL AREAS
OF THE NRN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Dakster:
Will the people of NOLA take it serious this time around?



Not trying to pick a fight with you - I'm just bristling a little - I'm always defensive about my hometown. There will always be people any place there's tropical weather who do not take it seriously enough. There will also be people who do, who are ahead of the curve on preparations, plans, etc. It's hard to paint the denizens of any one locale with broad brush strokes like that. We can only hope for the best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1203. aquak9
Quoting flowrida:
Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood


Lowe's says use concrete.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..................................looking at this, GFS and GDFL put it into florida,wow GFS puts it in tampa bay
Quite a shift by the GFDL, puts it back into FL. Also the Low is more to the NE from the last fix.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L looks ugly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flowrida:
Man at Home Depot said duct tape just as good as plywood




they are so not right


the strong the winds the more less tap be comes ues less


now if this is olny like a 45 or 50 mph storm at land fall then no need any wood or tap but if winds are like 75 or higher then wood would be the best way too go
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
The Rain is in WPB now!!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
well Pat me and you are about to go under a tropical strom warning at 4pm ct


Wrong you will be under a watch at 5pm and upgraded to warning on Sunday if needed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The National Weather Service actually has a new campaign called "Go Tapeless" because the tape is pretty worthless. You should use plywood at least, but something sturdier like hurricane shutters is your best option.
Quoting flowrida:
Should I use duct tape or masking tape when tapeing up the windows?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Expect a possible renumber around 3:00-3:30.

I am waiting to put out my next blog post....got it written already...just waiting to see if this gets renumbered or not. I am waiting till 6 PM to post if it gets renumbered....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1246 - 1196

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron