Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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Can't wait to see NHC track on this thing, I expect we will see a large cone of error.
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Quoting Grothar:


PP!!!


What are you insinuating Gro? That is where I think it will go eventually. :-b
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Quoting allancalderini:
Debby!!! we shatter a record of 2005 so how it feels 2005 to lost a record to 2012? XD am crazy.


And may it be the only record from 2005 that is beat.
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1343. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668


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We should be well ahead of the 2005 season right? I believe we are?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We get Chris and Debby all in the same week..Kinda cool for June.Seems she'll be sticking with us for 5 days...then Ernesto comes in the picture after that.
And Chris managed to become a Hurricane...LOL
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
From Ft.Myers to Tampa bands are starting to rotate into the area.
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1338. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting LBAR:
I'm not sure how this storm goes west.


Im sure someone will tell you
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
guys like I said this morning
ATCF 18Z will have renumber and name
and NHC will have advisorys at 2pm or 5pm
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1335. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Debby.....Dallas......Hummmm?


PP!!!
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1334. nigel20
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Bazinga! This is historic, this breaks the record Hurricane Dennis set in 2005 as the earliest 'D' named storm.

Tropical Storm Debby


4-1-0.

Hey Teddy...what's your overall(intensity and track)forecast for TS Debby?
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Quoting RTSplayer:


This is very much in agreement with what we expected based on SST and the ENSO pattern.

As long as ENSO is between 0C and 0.5C, we're technically neutral, which is actually the climatology's most favorable conditions for storms to develop.

Probably looking at another month to month and a half of hyper-activity before any El Nino pattern manages to take over.
acouple.should.break.through.the.shear.
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1332. rxse7en
Quoting Patrap:
18:45 UTC Viz

surprised that swirl is still hanging in there.
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1330. Grothar
First image of Debby

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBL IC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc12/ATL/04L.DEBBY/ir/ge o/1km/20120623.1902.goes13.x.ir1km.04LDEBBY.40kts- 1001mb-260N-876W.100pc.jpg
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we are now a head of the E PAC by one name storm
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Quoting aquak9:


Pull it off real careful, re-roll it. Go get your money back.


and print off the nhc warnings from earlier this year about taping windows and take that back too, or just take this:

Install permanent hurricane shutters. Hurricane shutters provide the best protection for your windows and doors. Taping windows could take critical time from more effective preparedness measures. All tape does is help prevent glass from broken windows from scattering all over inside. Tape does not prevent windows from breaking. Cover the outside of windows with shutters or plywood.
If you do not have permanent hurricane shutters, install anchors for plywood (marine plywood is best) and predrill holes in precut half-inch outdoor plywood boards so that you can cover the windows of your home quickly. Mark which board fits which window. Note: Tape does not prevent windows from breaking, so taping windows is not recommended. Most homes destroyed during recent hurricanes had no window protection. When wind enters a home through broken windows, the pressure builds against the walls and can lift roofs, followed by collapsing walls.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the NHC will favor the westward solution but have a large cone of uncertainty.
Agree
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1326. GHOSTY1
Looks like Debby is getting alittle bit of convection to start popping up on her northwest side, hopefully it will really start to blow up.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
I think the NHC will favor the westward solution but have a large cone of uncertainty.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



debby is a mean sounding name.
never liked debbys, no offense to anyone.

so is debby moving S?
or is that just me

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Debby.....Dallas......Hummmm?
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
We get Chris and Debby all in the same week..Kinda cool for June.Seems she'll be sticking with us for 5 days...then Ernesto comes in the picture after that.
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Hey Debby come to FL!!
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Link
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1318. Grothar
Quoting DanielPC:
Navy page just added Debby to its tropical weather site.


Yep, its Debby
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Also, I think this is a good time to clarify.

It's Debby, not Debbie.
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1316. yqt1001
Kinda surprising how the models were all consistent on this at like 300 hours out..but now that we have Debby herself, they have no clue.
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We now have Tropical Storm Debby.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Bazinga! This is historic, this breaks the record Hurricane Dennis set in 2005 as the earliest 'D' named storm.

Tropical Storm Debby


4-1-0.



sure dos
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Quoting FloatingCity:
Where does it say anywhere that we have Debbie? NHC? Where?

href="http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/" target="_blank">>
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1312. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to the Mayan 2012 GOM Tropical-palooza
lol and we ALL in here are witnesses to an historic event in time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39262
Quoting icmoore:


Do you expect about the same for the coast. I am on Madeira Beach just N of Treasure Island. The NWS hasn't been posting any big amounts expected .10 to one inch "except in thunderstorms". Sun and Sun night 1-2 inches possible. Anyway I have a rain gauge if we don't wash away :)



Rainfall could be much heavier than that, but due to uncertainty with this system they know it would be unwise to be painting crazy rainfall totals.
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Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to the Mayan 2012 GOM Tropical-palooza


LOL.........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
1309. LargoFl
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Hello Debby.

And oh mannnn there is a TON of moisture streaming into west florida now
raining good here now finally,heavier rain is still to my south but headed this way later on.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39262
Navy page just added Debby to its tropical weather site.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all look what i found


AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,


Bazinga! This is historic, this breaks the record Hurricane Dennis set in 2005 as the earliest 'D' named storm.

Tropical Storm Debby


4-1-0.
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1306. Patrap
Welcome to the Mayan 2012 GOM Tropical-palooza
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



alchohol is not good.


we are beating 2005 4-1
on june 28 that becomes 4-2, unless the crazy gfs has its way then it will be 5-2


Better than bears!!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Although she has had a tough time wrapping convection to the West, and still struggling with current sheer levels, she is ahead of schedule in terms of TS status. She is a contender.
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Cool, we have Debby! Now to see what the NHC says.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
awwww, levi, you wrote your blog too early....

2012 will be known as fast start year from now on


This is very much in agreement with what we expected based on SST and the ENSO pattern.

As long as ENSO is between 0C and 0.5C, we're technically neutral, which is actually the climatology's most favorable conditions for storms to develop.

Probably looking at another month to month and a half of hyper-activity before any El Nino pattern manages to take over.
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AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,
Quoting FloatingCity:
Where does it say anywhere that we have Debbie? NHC? Where?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



alchohol is not good.


we are beating 2005 4-1
on june 28 that becomes 4-2, unless the crazy gfs has its way then it will be 5-2

Well actually, those who drink alcohol in moderation are known to live longer than those who don't drink at all.

Anyways, back to Debby.
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Debby!!! we shatter a record of 2005 so how it feels 2005 to lost a record to 2012? XD am crazy.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You guys can have the bears, I'll take the beer.



alchohol is not good.


we are beating 2005 4-1
on june 28 that becomes 4-2, unless the crazy gfs has its way then it will be 5-2
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The center goes West and all the weather goes East.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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