Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.
Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I said in landfall location and intensity..... not in general.
2012 seems to get all the interesting stuff.
The mayans are off somewhere chuckling to themselves
000
FONT14 KNHC 232052
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 8 20 35
TROP DEPRESSION 7 10 14 13 21 20 21
TROPICAL STORM 89 77 70 62 53 43 33
HURRICANE 4 12 14 23 18 17 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 11 11 18 15 14 10
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 3 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11)
APALACHICOLA 34 5 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) 1(21)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 9(17) 4(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27) 1(28)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 8(12) 4(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) 1(23)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
PENSACOLA FL 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 5(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 18 21(39) 8(47) 5(52) 3(55) 1(56) 1(57)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 6(29) 3(32) X(32)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
STENNIS SC 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 9(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 2 11(13) 14(27) 11(38) 8(46) 3(49) 1(50)
BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 12 26(38) 15(53) 9(62) 5(67) 2(69) 1(70)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 7( 8) 6(14) 6(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 10(24) 8(32) 4(36) 1(37)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 7( 8) 12(20) 15(35) 15(50) 4(54) 1(55)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 1(18)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 8(22) 3(25) 2(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 3(28) 2(30)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 15(29) 7(36) 4(40)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 3(23)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 3(22)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 4(28)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 4(22)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
I can still see it...
If I were the head of the NHC I would have kept it unclassified so I did not have to forecast a track. lol, yeah I know.
With all due respect we are still a couple days away from anyone being right or wrong. I think it will head westward myself however, still a lot of uncertainty in that ridge next week.
We're going to see the cone shift quite a bit, IMHO.
We are prepared here in texas though!
Also, to note, 3/4 of our "Abnormally Early Storms" were storms that would have been detected before the satellite era due to them impacting land. Now people can't complain and say that our numbers are being inflated.
Shear is our friend. :)
Looks like some flight-level obs got in, but only 1 dropsonde:
With the wind thats been blowing @ 15 to 20 all week
from the SE and high tides it wont take much for the water to build along he coast and low lying areas
plus add any rain we get from this even if this dont make hurrecaine status to our South could still get ugly around here and southward all along the La coast
hopfully it stays far South as it passes by if it does decide to go west
Hmmm....maybe :) Gotta watch and see
yes i can to,just looks like one won't be able to in a little while
Storm damage reported in East Naples; tornado warning given
By Naples Daily News staff report
Updated Saturday, June 23, 2012
EAST NAPLES — Authorities are responding to a report of a tornado touching down in East Naples in the vicinity of Rattlesnake Hammock Road and U.S. 41 East.
East Naples firefighters and Collier County sheriff’s officials are responding and settling up a command post at U.S. 41 and Rattlesnake Hammock Road.
Authorities said a tornado warning has just been issued for the area until about 4:30 p.m. and hten extended until after 5 p.m.
Daily News staff on scene is reporting roof damage to at least one home on Barcelona Circle.
Authorities also are receiving calls about storm damage to trees, fences, some roofs and pool cages in the Boca Ciega and Lakewood neighborhoods.
Several emergency personnel responding reported seeing what appeared to be a funnel cloud. It moved in the direction from south to northwest, with reports of airborne sightings in North Naples a short time later.
Link
Then that will be the last storm
I am trying to upload the video I shot onto YouTube. I will have it shortly. I am sure it is plastered all over the local news.
Better yet, watch it experience fission, and let one low go east and one go west. Remember that all bets are off with our 21st century weather, and anything can happen. Still waiting expectantly to see what outrageous thing could come next, and Debby isn't exempt!
I said intensity because of the Cat 1 at landfall... that's what I was referring to.
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
yea those who want to throw crap in the faces of those who think this could still go to Florida fail to realize that the western half of the state is getting rocked right now with bad weather directly from Debby...in fact we will likely have more impacts here today and tomorrow than most of the other parts of the Gulf Coast will depending on her eventual track
but whatever, its always been like this here, so just have to get used to it
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
click image for Loop
ZOOM and Menu active, last frame, omit
Coastal Flood Warning
Statement as of 4:40 PM CDT on June 23, 2012
... Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 7 am CDT Monday...
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Warning... which is in effect until 7 am CDT Monday. The
coastal Flood Advisory is no longer in effect.
* Coastal flooding... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday
* timing... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday morning.
Highest water levels will occur near the time of high Tide.
Water levels will remain elevated into Monday.
* Impacts... in Hancock County water levels will peak at 2 to 3
feet above normal astronomical tide Sunday with locally higher
levels up to 4 feet possible in some locations. Flooding will
impact low lying areas around Bay St Louis and Waveland... including
but not limited to Shoreline Park and Bayside estates. Around
Lake Pontchartrain water levels will increase to near 2 feet
above normal astronomical tide beginning late
Sunday... increasing to 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical
tide by Monday. Flooding will affect low lying areas around Lake
Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. Some roadways near the lake
could become flooded. Minor flooding is possible in some
neighorhoods along the
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for
rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.
None down here in (my area anyway) of South Fort Myers either, though there was a tornado warning south of us in Collier, so there is some hell breaking loose way south of you in the SW Fl area. We've been getting a nice, steady, soak-the-ground rain here. Fine with me - bit more of that and we'll be out of the yellow on the drought maps.
Soggy is good - much of FL is still in the US 'drought' map. Flooding, on the other hand, we can do without!
I hate it when Avila is behind the desk...
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