Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 22, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance's lack of organization.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L's potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody's guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.


Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.

Jeff Masters

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3199. sunlinepr
3:07 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Nearly 9,000 evacuated as Utah fire explodes
Posted on June 23, 2012

June 23, 2012 – SALT LAKE CITY — Thousands of homes were evacuated from two small Utah communities on Friday as high winds whipped up a brush fire triggered by target shooters and pushed the flames toward houses and a nearby explosives factory. The so-called Dump fire erupted Thursday in the Kiowa Valley near a landfill for Saratoga Springs, a town of 18,000 on the west shore of Utah Lake, about 35 miles south of Salt Lake City. Nearly 9,000 people had been evacuated, Utah County Sheriff’s Sgt. Spencer Cannon told The Deseret News....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47926409/ns/weather/
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
3198. Hhunter
3:07 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Bastardi was on the fence if not favoring florida until a.m visible sat pic. He know is pretty much on the Texas horse with Debbie to be most likely Port Lavaca south to mexican border as area of concern.

Cat 1-2 with slight chance gets stacked and ramps to cat 4
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3197. sunlinepr
3:02 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
3196. sunlinepr
3:00 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
NASA sees tropical trouble brewing in southern Gulf of Mexico
Posted on June 23, 2012

June 23, 2012 – GULF OF MEXICO - It’s quite likely that the fourth tropical cyclone of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season is brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico, more specifically, in the Yucatan Channel. The Yucatan Channel lies between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Tropical depressions seem to have a habit of forming on weekends, and this low appears to be following that habit. On Friday, June 22 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), System 96L was located near 22.5 North and 89.5 West, near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GOES-13 satellite continually monitors the eastern U.S. and provides updated visible and infrared imagery. An image from June 22 at 1601 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT) shows a large low pressure area near the Yucatan’s northern coast with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the image, some of the thunderstorms near the center of the low appear to be higher than the surrounding clouds, which indicates they are higher and stronger. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that atmospheric pressure on the surface continues to fall, indicating that the low pressure area is intensifying. Forecasters at NHC give System 96L a 70 percent chance of becoming the fourth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane season, sometime over the weekend. Meanwhile, System 96L is expected to move slowly northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend (June 23-24). The NHC notes “Interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend. Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and southern Florida through Saturday.” -Physics
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3195. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:27 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Getting some ok outflow?
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3194. Stormchaser121
2:08 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
I say anywhere from Matagorda bay TX to Morgan city LA should be on alert
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
3193. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:06 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting WxLogic:
LLC is a bit elongated, but coming together at a decent pace. Based on Sat observations... I estimate the LLC to be at 26N 87W:



I think ya nailed it pretty close :)
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3192. lobdelse81
2:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Is it just me or does it seem like a lot of E-Pac storms get their act together much more rapidly than the ones in the Atlantic. I mean, I can't even recall the last time I saw an E-pac storm have a lopsided and stretched out look to it. I wonder why that is.
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
3191. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:01 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We should see a renumber this afternoon. Just needs a little more convection first.



That little circulation sure has some big pull,look at them clouds screaming towards the center from far away!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3190. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We should see a renumber this afternoon. Just needs a little more convection first.


She just got a big thunderstorm on the south side where an eye would form
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3189. lobdelse81
1:55 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Good Morning everyone. I see our Gulf of Mexico critter is firing up convection today, but still looks a bit lopsided. I wonder how strong the shear is over the system and is it forecast to relax?
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
3188. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:55 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting canehater1:
Link

Visible Sat. GOM
Good way to see COC....Check the "fronts" box

and click "zoom" then click on the L in the sattelite

presentation until it zooms in tight....


Looks to me the low is NE of the shown Low
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3187. jpsb
1:53 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting USCGLT:
Regardless of which way this goes, water is already piling up along the central Gulf Coast. Depending on how long it takes and if she goes west it could get a little ugly from Mobile Bay west through New Orleans..."
Water is piling up in Galveston Bay too.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1273
3186. Pirate999
1:44 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Bitmap7:
Apparently this is already impacting gas prices.

Link


I'm sorry but I have to comment in this. The "storm" is NOT effecting GAS prices per the article. If you were to read the entire article it discusses the price of a barrel of OIL not gas and the increase of a whopping $1.90 was primarily caused by the stenghening of the euro against the dollar.

There are a couple of sentences, very poorly worded, about some "port and Murphy oil". Yes, full evacuation, not just nonessential personnel, may cause a small spike in a barrel but unless it's a cat 4 and wipes out production this "storm" will have minor impact on gasoline prices.

Ok, I feel better. Back to sleep until this thing decides which way to go.

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3185. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:43 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Link
Quoting emguy:


I would appreciate it if you could share the link with us that shows the data at this buoy station. Further insight and information is always appreciated.
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3184. lobdelse81
1:42 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
I believe we have at least a Tropical Depression in the GOM, but the NHC will wisely wait till recon investigates later today.

I believe it will go straight to tropical storm strength.
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
3183. Hurricanes305
1:37 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Looking at the latest sat. images you can see the LLC near 25.9N/86.5W also it seems that some pop up tstorms have flare up east and North of the COC. We should have Debby this evening.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
3182. GeorgiaStormz
1:28 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
ECMWF really wants to rapid intesify this.
I think at some point this will undergo a rapid intensifation spurt, but sometime after the euro wants it to.

right now it has the loop current
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
3181. panamasteve
1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:


He was banned along with STORMW lol.


Hmmm, OK.....
Member Since: June 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
3180. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure down another two clicks; winds are holding at 30 knots. Looks like today's the day...

AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 280, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


but it does not upgrades it.. keeping it as a low for the 8 am update. so no 11 am TD ot TS
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
3179. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3178. wunderkidcayman
1:25 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
hey guys I think we will get a TS by ATCF at 18Z NHC Advisorys will start at either 2pm or 5pm and TS W/W along the E and N gulf states
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
3177. ncstorm
1:25 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
CMC Ensembles


NCEP Ensembles Forecast
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
3176. CybrTeddy
1:25 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
3172. I disagree, look at the last few GFS runs. See how it develops a seperate low by Florida? None of the models are showing that, and that is why it gets pulled NE - the low by the east coast of Florida that would become ''Ernesto'' in that situation influences it and pulls it into the trough. This is a classic example of the GFS's greatest flaw - convective feedback. All this energy in the Gulf and the GFS doesn't really know what to do with it, so it develops separate lows. This should be discarded IMO from the forecast unless other models start showing a separate low in the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
3175. GeorgiaStormz
1:24 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
even if the gfs is wrong with the trough pulling 96L out, it deepens this significantly before the storm moves either direction.
There is a good chance we could see a hurricane from this.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
3174. earthlydragonfly
1:24 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Looks like the GOM wants to play spin the bottle with this one!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
3173. islander101010
1:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting KORBIN:
Models mean nothing right now, I think by later on this afternoon we will have a much better idea on track, strength.

I am sure they will send out both birds out, the High Altitude Recon and the Regular recon flight to get a good idea of the conditions in the atmosphere.

I would have a tendancy to think by this evening we will have much more consistent model runs.
key.west.radar.shows.it.moving..n.e
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4999
3172. emguy
1:21 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
It's unfornate that a lot of folks were not able to see this as it unfolded last night. A wind surge moved up into the NE quadrant of the gulf...Several "gyres" popped out along the way, but it was clear with that wind surge that things would get going further north. The system has worked off all of those gyres and the low is just underneath the western edge of the convection. At this point...the system is north of where the models called...a smidge east as well. Ahead of schedule for sure, but will likely slowdown a bit now. I've figured this was an eastern gulf event as eastern gulf systems stay in the eastern gulf in June. Mean time, while merit could be played to the westward models such as the EURO, CMC, and UKMET, their depiction of the strength of the Bermuda High was always dismissed. As before, I still believe the GFS had a bite on it and now that things are where they are, the door on the westward models has likely been slammed shut. This is a North Florida in June type tropical storm that will likely cross the shore beween Tampa and Apalachicola.
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3171. Dakster
1:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Hey Gro! Long time...

Thought I would pop in and say hello...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10754
3170. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Sat, 23 Jun 2012 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (159°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F



1005.4mb
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3169. Hurricane4Lex
1:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Hello again [in a long while] guys and good morning I'm not sure if we have the new models up by now but last time I checked.....




ANYWHERE hehe
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
3168. mobileshadow
1:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183
3167. Grothar
1:16 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Dakster:



Where are those hurricane tunnels from cyclonebuster when you need them? (jk)



Dak!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
3166. Beachfoxx
1:16 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
I know exactly! I'm looking out over the bay, interesting that the water is a bit higher than norm....
Hoping to enjoy some sunshine today before the rains get here. Right now it's a question of where will she go? While we are all glued to the WX maps & models!
Quoting icmoore:



Good morning :) Yep you and Patti know what I mean LOL! I have sitting here for days how many more days will I be held captive by this!?!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29385
3165. KORBIN
1:16 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Models mean nothing right now, I think by later on this afternoon we will have a much better idea on track, strength.

I am sure they will send out both birds out, the High Altitude Recon and the Regular recon flight to get a good idea of the conditions in the atmosphere.

I would have a tendancy to think by this evening we will have much more consistent model runs.
Member Since: November 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
3164. Grothar
1:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


they are all thinking the stall is going to happen..its after the stall where the confusion comes in..will it be the trough or the ridge that determines the path of this system??


Yep, timing is everything with this one. I think some of the models had expected it to be stronger by this time. I guess that could also change things. The weaker it remains, the more stalled it could become.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
3163. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting GetReal:


The center is becoming better defined at 24.1N and 87.8W still slowly tracking north. There is still plenty of shear preventing 96L from wrapping convection around the west side of the system.



Shear stop, I command thee
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3162. Dakster
1:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting seriousman1:


i spoke to stormtop and he advised me to get ready for a CAT 2 HURRICANE FOR PEOPLE IN LA AND MS..he will have a statement from his weather office later today..



Where are those hurricane tunnels from cyclonebuster when you need them? (jk)

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10754
3161. gulfscout
1:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



What that means is we have about a 50/50 shot of seeing either movement, it may just mean that either direction could pull the system, its also possible that when it reaches that point to go either left and right that it will just stall. If it did, rainfall From the Mississippi coast eastward down to the southwest Florida coast would likely be extreme.


One run of the models showed showed a stall right off the ms/al coast with extreme rainfall.
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3160. JNCali
1:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
WOuld love to see Debby bring significant rain to GA..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
3159. interstatelover7165
1:13 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Articuno:

Yay, I told my dad that sonic the hedgehog is turning 31 today and he said it made him feel old...lol
Make that 21 lol! His first game was released June 23, 1991. You're probably thinking of Mario lol
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
3158. ncstorm
1:12 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


It looks like almost all the models have the system doing a 360 in the middle of the Gulf. It will be interesting to see that. I know it will be fun to watch the blog.


they are all thinking the stall is going to happen..its after the stall where the confusion comes in..will it be the trough or the ridge that determines the path of this system??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
3157. GeorgiaStormz
1:12 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
tampa's.radar.very.heavy.rain.out.there


did you break your spacebar?
lol

looks like houston will not get hit by this, but i still see it as possible given that the low is further north than anticipated.
We will have to see, but mexico could end up being where this goes
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
3155. icmoore
1:11 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting Beachfoxx:
LoL
Yep, you know what they say about those Floridians!
Morning - looks like we have more wait & see...




Good morning :) Yep you and Patti know what I mean LOL! I have sitting here for days how many more days will I be held captive by this!?!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
3152. Bitmap7
1:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Apparently this is already impacting gas prices.

Link
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
3151. mcluvincane
1:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting panamasteve:
Anybody seen Ike from Defuniak Springs, FL lately?


He was banned along with STORMW lol.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
3150. Jedkins01
1:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:
about as bad of Model Splits i have seen for some time...




What that means is we have about a 50/50 shot of seeing either movement, it may just mean that either direction could pull the system, its also possible that when it reaches that point to go either left and right that it will just stall. If it did, rainfall From the Mississippi coast eastward down to the southwest Florida coast would likely be extreme.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014

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