Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance's lack of organization.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L's potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody's guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.
Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 — Blog Index
He was banned along with STORMW lol.
Link
Good morning :) Yep you and Patti know what I mean LOL! I have sitting here for days how many more days will I be held captive by this!?!
did you break your spacebar?
lol
looks like houston will not get hit by this, but i still see it as possible given that the low is further north than anticipated.
We will have to see, but mexico could end up being where this goes
they are all thinking the stall is going to happen..its after the stall where the confusion comes in..will it be the trough or the ridge that determines the path of this system??
One run of the models showed showed a stall right off the ms/al coast with extreme rainfall.
Where are those hurricane tunnels from cyclonebuster when you need them? (jk)
Shear stop, I command thee
Yep, timing is everything with this one. I think some of the models had expected it to be stronger by this time. I guess that could also change things. The weaker it remains, the more stalled it could become.
I am sure they will send out both birds out, the High Altitude Recon and the Regular recon flight to get a good idea of the conditions in the atmosphere.
I would have a tendancy to think by this evening we will have much more consistent model runs.
Hoping to enjoy some sunshine today before the rains get here. Right now it's a question of where will she go? While we are all glued to the WX maps & models!
Dak!!!!
ANYWHERE hehe
1005.4mb
Thought I would pop in and say hello...
There is a good chance we could see a hurricane from this.
NCEP Ensembles Forecast
but it does not upgrades it.. keeping it as a low for the 8 am update. so no 11 am TD ot TS
Hmmm, OK.....
I think at some point this will undergo a rapid intensifation spurt, but sometime after the euro wants it to.
right now it has the loop current
I believe it will go straight to tropical storm strength.
I'm sorry but I have to comment in this. The "storm" is NOT effecting GAS prices per the article. If you were to read the entire article it discusses the price of a barrel of OIL not gas and the increase of a whopping $1.90 was primarily caused by the stenghening of the euro against the dollar.
There are a couple of sentences, very poorly worded, about some "port and Murphy oil". Yes, full evacuation, not just nonessential personnel, may cause a small spike in a barrel but unless it's a cat 4 and wipes out production this "storm" will have minor impact on gasoline prices.
Ok, I feel better. Back to sleep until this thing decides which way to go.
Looks to me the low is NE of the shown Low
She just got a big thunderstorm on the south side where an eye would form
That little circulation sure has some big pull,look at them clouds screaming towards the center from far away!
I think ya nailed it pretty close :)
Getting some ok outflow?
Posted on June 23, 2012
June 23, 2012 – GULF OF MEXICO - It’s quite likely that the fourth tropical cyclone of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season is brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico, more specifically, in the Yucatan Channel. The Yucatan Channel lies between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Tropical depressions seem to have a habit of forming on weekends, and this low appears to be following that habit. On Friday, June 22 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), System 96L was located near 22.5 North and 89.5 West, near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GOES-13 satellite continually monitors the eastern U.S. and provides updated visible and infrared imagery. An image from June 22 at 1601 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT) shows a large low pressure area near the Yucatan’s northern coast with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the image, some of the thunderstorms near the center of the low appear to be higher than the surrounding clouds, which indicates they are higher and stronger. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that atmospheric pressure on the surface continues to fall, indicating that the low pressure area is intensifying. Forecasters at NHC give System 96L a 70 percent chance of becoming the fourth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane season, sometime over the weekend. Meanwhile, System 96L is expected to move slowly northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend (June 23-24). The NHC notes “Interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend. Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and southern Florida through Saturday.” -Physics
Cat 1-2 with slight chance gets stacked and ramps to cat 4
Posted on June 23, 2012
June 23, 2012 – SALT LAKE CITY — Thousands of homes were evacuated from two small Utah communities on Friday as high winds whipped up a brush fire triggered by target shooters and pushed the flames toward houses and a nearby explosives factory. The so-called Dump fire erupted Thursday in the Kiowa Valley near a landfill for Saratoga Springs, a town of 18,000 on the west shore of Utah Lake, about 35 miles south of Salt Lake City. Nearly 9,000 people had been evacuated, Utah County Sheriff’s Sgt. Spencer Cannon told The Deseret News....
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47926409/ns/weather/
Viewing: 3151 - 3199
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 — Blog Index