Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on June 21, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.

Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.

Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.

Jeff Masters

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What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK IT`S WAY TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OUT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS AREA IS BETTER DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INTEREST
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.

CLOSER TO HOME...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... MID 70S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT NOSES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTN TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE IN RESPONSE...WITH LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND. FOR THOSE OUTSIDE BE SURE TO DRINK
OF FLUIDS...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND APPLY PLENTY OF SUNSCREEN.

FOR NEXT WEEK THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD. AS OF NOW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE... DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW. THE FINALLY TRACK
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WORK IT`S SELF OUT.

&&

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting LargoFl:

This thing looks kind of huge, I wonder if it can consolidate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2547. LargoFl
.............................not even IN the 7 day forecast in Texas
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50676
2546. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50676
2544. LargoFl
Quoting TampaCat5:

We already had an inch of rain yesterday from this disturbance.
yes we had some good rain here last night finally..going to be an on and off rain event here this weekend,then we see where this whatever it becomes..goes,my guess is from tampa north to the big bend..we shall see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50676
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

The boys from Biloxi !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
florida might get 1/10 inch of rain and maybe 7 to 10 mph winds that should be all

We already had an inch of rain yesterday from this disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2540. WxLogic
There's still a degree of disorganization. The 850MB VORT still well displaced from the 500MB VORT where the deeper convection exist to the E/SE.

850MB:



500MB:



At low levels, I'm not quite seeing yet a well defined center, but interesting enough on the NE Yucatan Peninsula one of the WX reporting stations is showing NW winds, which if it holds it could put the center closer to the deep convection and stronger 500MB VORT.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5071
Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
florida might get 1/10 inch of rain and maybe 7 to 10 mph winds that should be all


yup i dont think it will hit florida
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
96L looks about the same now as last night... NHC will likely stay with 70% at 8AM



prolly

anti yclone is off center

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
what are the chances that they will say 96 will hit florida and it really wont?


40/100 they say it hits florida

40/100 it hits florida

20/100 they say it hits florida and it doesnt

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
ECMWF 0z 96 hour


Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
2532. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
517 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-230000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
517 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
BEING WATCHED CLOSELY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OR
STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL POTENTIALLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THOSE WITH BEACH PLANS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST RIP
CURRENT FORECASTS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM
THIS LOW. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO THIS
POTENTIAL STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50676
96L looks about the same now as last night... NHC will likely stay with 70% at 8AM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


I sawyou liked levis stuff..im NOT a stalker


NP. Was hoping I didn't forget some conversation we had. phew! Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
ughh today is going to be a long day


they always are
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting weatherh98:


yes but there is a ridge squeezing on both sides i dont think it can get in that deep
ughh today is going to be a long day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2525. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5071
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Way to deep for what? Only about two weeks ago, an extremely strong trof brought a cool front through Florida and lowered temps to near record lows.


yes but there is a ridge squeezing on both sides i dont think it can get in that deep
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
2523. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50676
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You got me there. :P


I sawyou liked levis stuff..im NOT a stalker
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting weatherh98:


that trugh is way too deep
Way to deep for what? Only about two weeks ago, an extremely strong trof brought a cool front through Florida and lowered temps to near record lows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


The vorticity in the channel is at the 500mb level.
I guess the mid and lower level circulations will have to duke it out! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


yours is stefanie thogh!


You got me there. :P
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS IN OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP TODAY OR THIS WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
DEEPENING OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW OVER THE GULF AND TRACK THE LOW
NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EAST FLOW WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
TIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS BY
SATURDAY. DEPENDING OF THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO 90W...EAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST AND ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH MAY CREATE A
DOWN GLIDE OF AIR ACROSS LAND AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...RESULTING IN WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS. AT THE SAME...DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NEAR THE
POSSIBLE LOW...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS OVER AND SOUTH OF TIDAL LAKES...COASTAL AREAS
AND COASTAL WATERS. ERGO...OFFICE IS LEANING TO GFS THINKING WITH
A STALL SYSTEM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS STALLING THE POSSIBLE LOW OVER THE GULF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING...STRENGTHENING AND
POSSIBLE TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAK STEERING WINDS NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS GOING FOR MOST OF THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS
4-6 FEET EXPECTED. AFTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THINGS COULD GET MORE
INTERESTING. RIGHT NOW MODELS DIFFER IN TRACK AND STRENGTH...HOWEVER
ALL MODELS DO SHOW A LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS THE CASE HIGHER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE EXPECTED AND AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THAT ALSO DEPENDS IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A NAMED
SYSTEM BY THEN. RIGHT NOW HAVE LEANED MORE WITH A GFS SOLUTION FOR
THIS PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW WINDS PEAKING DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. SWELLS OF 7-11 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
20-60 NM WATERS THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF AS ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD GREATLY
ALTER THE WINDS/SEAS FORECAST. 13/MH

&&

From N.O. fcst discussion this morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2517. LargoFl
...........................................good morning everyone..coffee is on!...everyone watching the gulf these next 3 days..I hope..warnings will go up sometime this weekend i bet...have a great one
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50676
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
JFV will be happy about this... Florida landfall on the 6z GFS



that trugh is way too deep
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting Mamasteph:
I will be on and off today monitoring it..just recupperating from surgery on Weds..so Hagd AtHomeinTexas we'll see ya later...


Ok. Hope you heal soon. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Morning Steph. Excellent name by the way. ;) I sure don't see the coc where they say it is. But I'll take their word for it for now. The recon should clear that up. I hope they go in today. Maybe it will be easier to find when the sun goes up.


yours is stefanie thogh!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Across Fl. and it looked to me like they initialized the low from the right place. If the NHC has it right. :)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
JFV will be happy about this... Florida landfall on the 6z GFS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I will be on and off today monitoring it..just recupperating from surgery on Weds..so Hagd AtHomeinTexas we'll see ya later...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaCat5:
Good morning all. I'm not seeing a CoC anywhere near the north of Yucatan, looking at the spiral bands, it seems like a center would be most likely to form in the Yucatan Channel.


The vorticity in the channel is at the 500mb level.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mamasteph:
Tyvm!.Either way it goes you or I will get something from this..well we are already..as I am in Fla...lol..it will be abolutely crazy if they do find 2 Coc's..one on your side and 1 on mine and decide this isn't 1 broad system but the combination of 2..lol...this season I am ready for anything that isn't "in the books"..lol..afterall it is 2012...lol..morning humor..


I been wondering about if there are 2 cocs too. Their discussion from earlier says its at where we cant see it. Lol. But you're right I think this will be a mess for everyone around the gulf.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 22.5N89.5W AT 22/00Z.
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW CENTER. THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE TAMPA
BAY AREA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM SHOWING THE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING
SLOWLY N TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WITH SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...EXPECT WINDS
REACHING 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 9-10 FT. INTERESTS ALONG THE
ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Morning Steph. Excellent name by the way. ;) I sure don't see the coc where they say it is. But I'll take their word for it for now. The recon should clear that up. I hope they go in today. Maybe it will be easier to find when the sun goes up.
Tyvm!.Either way it goes you or I will get something from this..well we are already..as I am in Fla...lol..it will be abolutely crazy if they do find 2 Coc's..one on your side and 1 on mine and decide this isn't 1 broad system but the combination of 2..lol...this season I am ready for anything that isn't "in the books"..lol..afterall it is 2012...lol..morning humor..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all. I'm not seeing a CoC anywhere near the north of Yucatan, looking at the spiral bands, it seems like a center would be most likely to form in the Yucatan Channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mamasteph:
Good Morning All..went to Nhc before the blog this a.m...they may send recon out in the gulf this afternoon..maybe then there will finally be a COC to track!


Morning Steph. Excellent name by the way. ;) I sure don't see the coc where they say it is. But I'll take their word for it for now. The recon should clear that up. I hope they go in today. Maybe it will be easier to find when the sun goes up.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Good Morning All..went to Nhc before the blog this a.m...they may send recon out in the gulf this afternoon..maybe then there will finally be a COC to track!
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Station 42001
NDBC
Location: 25.888N 89.658W
Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2012 08:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (70°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ftDominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.74 in and fallingAir Temperature: 81.0 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Station 42363
Shell Oil
Location: 28.160N 89.22WDate: Fri, 22 Jun 2012 08:00:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and fallingAir Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 71.1 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emguy:
AtHomeInTx...Head's up. I sent you a weather related e-mail "WU-Mail". Good luck in tracking this storm.


:)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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