Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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WOW lol
Quoting ncstorm:
I woke up and say hey, lets see what the models are showing..WTW!!!

960 mb???


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2138. ncstorm
I woke up and say hey, lets see what the models are showing..WTW!!!

960 mb???


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
one thing is for a cold front may sweep down acros FL next week behind this gulf system.
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Two days ago, NOAA's HPC was, of course, calling for heavy rain across South Florida, with my area set to receive anywhere from 3" up to 10". Well, I've watched the HPC for years, and learned long ago to take such forecasts with not just a grain of salt, but a whole bag of it. The thing is, in all the time I've known them, they have correctly predicted a major precipitation event once for any place I've lived (a Pineapple Express even in Southern California); either they've completely missed out and I was deluged, or--far more frequently, and as happened this week--they've wildly overestimated what they thought we might get.

I can live with that, of course; I know predicting such things is inexact science. But, still, I had my hopes up. After all, it's been a drier than normal June here in Naples, and a drier than normal year; it would have been great to get something.

With my past HPC experiences, I figured the high end of the forecast was greatly overstated; there's no way we'd see anything close to 10" of rain. And, again given my experience with them, I figured even the low end of the forecast was probably too high. Keeping that in mind, then, I figured we'd get maybe an inch or two. That wouldn't be enough to make up our monthly or year deficit, but it would be a huge help.

Fat chance.

Instead of rain on Tuesday evening, we got mostly cloudy. Instead of rain Tuesday night, we got overcast. Instead of "heavy rain" yesterday, we got mostly cloudy again. And instead of "heavy rain" last night, we got partly cloudy. And this morning the sun arose to shine, unhindered and filtered only slightly by some high and wispy cirrus, on desert-dry roads, sidewalks, and lawns.

I know the rains will come; they always do. And I'm seldom one to criticize; I know how difficult a meteorologist's job can be. But, seriously, when an entity's short-term forecast is for 3"-10" of heavy rain with strong winds, and instead we receive only fluffy clouds, sunshine, and a light breeze, I gotta ask: how could they get it so wrong?

Idle thoughts for a Thursday morning... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13725
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Bully! :P
The Ridge is a big bad bully, Debby is wearing a diaper. LOL
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If Chris isn't a hurricane or at least a 70mph storm then I don't know what is.It'll be something to see the look on Joe's face and accuweather.


LOL! Should be a hurricane and we should have invest 96L as well. JMO
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If Chris isn't a hurricane or at least a 70mph storm then I don't know what is.It'll be something to see the look on Joe's face and accuweather.

I am predicting on my blog it will be 70 mph (or slight chance of a minimal hurricane) by 11 AM advisory....it'll be interesting to see what happens here....
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Tropical Storm DonLink
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New update on my blog...I have been doing these about every 24 hours...check it out...

I still haven't bought into the Gulf of Mexico disturbance tracking up the east coast...see my blog on why....
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GFS Ensembles agree with the operational model now.

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If Chris isn't a hurricane or at least a 70mph storm then I don't know what is.It'll be something to see the look on Joe's face and accuweather.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like a Strong Ridge over a Weak Low, remember last years weak tropical system that hit Texas? Not even a cloud here, the weak storm hit my 110 degree temps and vanished, LOL.


Bully! :P
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
lol
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like a Strong Ridge over a Weak Low, remember last years weak tropical system that hit Texas? Not even a cloud here, the weak storm hit my 110 degree temps and vanished, LOL.
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I like a Strong Ridge over a Weak Low, remember last years weak tropical system that hit Texas? Not even a cloud here, the weak storm hit my 110 degree temps and vanished, LOL.
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2125. emguy
Did anyboby notice the bust/fail weather feature on the CMC model? It shows what appears to be a precipitation front/ trhough from the Yucatan to across the SE Gulf and across Florida while there is a healthy hurricane approaching Texas. If a tropical storm was in the Gulf, there would not be anything that resembles an independent front or a trough to it's south and southeast. Especially considering the deep tropical inflow coming into such a storm from the Gulf and the Carribean. It can be clearly seen on the image in post 2095. The CMC is a bust fo sure.
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2124. LargoFl
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning, great record heat here next week, so i have 37 days with no rain and record heat. Bring on October. :)

MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THE NAM AND CANADIAN HAVE THE DISTURBANCE GETTING
BROUGHT TOWARDS TEXAS AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE DISTURBANCE
BEING STEERED TOWARDS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INGESTED INTO THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. STUCK CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION AS THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE SLOW ON DEVELOPING
THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND THUS BRING THE RIDGE TOO FAR EAST.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE WELL
DEVELOPED WITH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN
SPOTS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.



Lol. Your NWS gave more of an explanation of the gulf system than mine. Mine basically said... RIDGE! lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
2122. KORBIN
Looks like the low might be a little to the West of where we first thought it was. I am not sure if Texas is completely out of their chances.

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2121. LargoFl
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Good Morning, great record heat here next week, so i have 37 days with no rain and record heat. Bring on October. :)

MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THE NAM AND CANADIAN HAVE THE DISTURBANCE GETTING
BROUGHT TOWARDS TEXAS AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE DISTURBANCE
BEING STEERED TOWARDS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INGESTED INTO THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. STUCK CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION AS THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE SLOW ON DEVELOPING
THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND THUS BRING THE RIDGE TOO FAR EAST.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE WELL
DEVELOPED WITH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN
SPOTS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

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2119. LargoFl
..........what is to stop whatever forms,to slip thru south florida and up the east coast, why are they so sure this will be a gulf event?,its far enough south right now to not feel a trough up there
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2118. emguy
This is a climotological development...pretty cut and dry. Should mean rainy disturbed weather for Florida since it is the eastern side. If it develops into something, then there will be more to talk about for the west coast of Florida as far as impacts. The low will get into the Central Gulf, but is not going to be an issue for the NW or N-Central Gulf.

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RIDGE!

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
2116. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:
Still at 30 for pre invest 96L
..hmmm notice the orange circle now includes florida,all the way up to hmmm Tampa
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Key word north of Tampa if you read the post again. Looks like a Cedar Key landfall on the Euro.



There isn't model consensus on a FL landfall. The Canadian and UKMET models are saying Texas. I think is one of those situations of where we have to see where this thing develops first. Then we'll have a better idea of track.
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2114. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Key word north of Tampa if you read the post again. Looks like a Cedar Key landfall on the Euro.

.............Tampa Shields up please,looks like its developing into a big bend kinda storm, which fits with the normal June track,hopefully it will stay weak once it gets going
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Firsthand WeatherLink
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


We need rain for sure but not hurricane.



I hope y'all get your rain without flooding too bad or the winds.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Also folks the C Gulf has been untouched since 2008 so we maybe due this year for severeal strikes toward the gulf coast from TX to FL.
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From Firsthand Weather Get ready Gulf of Mexico states! #Debbie will be our next named storm soon, and the US won't dodge this one. In this article, find out who will be impacted! -Matt HollidayLink
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Hmmm. Another low into SFL.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The NHC/HPC says a weak low across Florida. Which I hope is a lot more right than a hurricane. :)


We need rain for sure but not hurricane.

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2107. emguy
Quoting sporteguy03:


I do not think that your last sentence is very accurate you can still get a major hurricane in the Gulf, could the water cool off briefly sure it can. It will heat right back up in a few weeks. It would take major upwelling to cause what you are saying, which isn't very likely.


Incorrect...you are reading too deep into the comment. A major hurricane will be possible in the hurricane season. As I mentioned...It will remain tropically warm, but not anomolously warm as it had been. There will be a cool down in the gulf with this hanging around. This disturbance is broad and will sit for quite a while. It will cut some heat and get the gulf closer to average...that said, a temperature that is still very supportive for tropical cyclones in itself...but again...much closer to average.
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THe set up long range is the same on both the euro & GFS for mulitiple troughs digging south early next week. This is what the GFS and Euro are seeing below. Notice the weakness over the eastern gulf and up SE US.

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2082 weatherh98: If that image doesn't scream hurricane then I know Didley squat about meteorology.

Awww, c'mon. Great catch on the visuals -- an automatic Plus -- then ya hafta say it's a hurricane?
The (NHC) ATCF is saying 50knots. The NHC Advisory for 3hours later is saying 95km/h(51knots) to 60mph(52knots). At minimum, a hurricane must have MaximumSustainedWinds of 64knots.
So now I can't Plus it lest folks mistakenly think I agree that TS.Chris is a hurricane. UNFAIR
It's as pretty as a really nice hurricane, but it is not a hurricane...
...yet. Who knows? It's s'posta have up to another 36hours before either turning ExtraTropical or RIPing.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
lol
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The NHC/HPC says a weak low across Florida. Which I hope is a lot more right than a hurricane. :)
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HPC Day 5
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
For all we know this may never develope. Just need to see how things evolve over the coming days.


The NHC/HPC says a weak low across Florida. Which I hope is a lot more right than a hurricane. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
For all we know this may never develope. Just need to see how things evolve over the coming days.
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Jun 21
Scattered T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
60%
Jun 22
Heavy T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
80%
Jun 23
Heavy T-Storms
Potential for heavy rainfall
CHANCE OF RAIN:
90%
Jun 24
T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
70%
Jun 25
T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
70%
Jun 26
Scattered T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
60%
Jun 27
Scattered T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
60%
Jun 28
Scattered T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
30%
Jun 29
Scattered T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
60%
Jun 30
Scattered T-Storms
CHANCE OF RAIN:
60%
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Quoting gator23:

That looks like The big bend not Tampa


Key word north of Tampa if you read the post again. Looks like a Cedar Key landfall on the Euro.

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TX folks sorry but this isn't coming at you guys atleast no this one as there are too many trough that are digging in over the next several days either this is coming to FL either this weekend or early next week. Classic June pattern.

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Quoting emguy:


Actually, If you watch his video from yesterday (LINK) ...Levi was also on the fence on an east or west path, but hinted at more of an Allison situation...which may tag the Texas area, but still heads east in the end. Either way, none of his models actually showed a Texas Landfall, just hinted at very weak and ill defined vorticity in the Gulf south of it...and I don't think he every painted a picture of something Texas bound. His info was good for the timeframe. Much more info now so I would expect he would be much more discript and in line with the Florida situation. Either way, the scenario of any possible flitations with Texas was never a decent possbility and is far less likely now. If something did head to Texas, than this will never been a storm named Debby and this whole conversation is moot.


I watched the video yesterday, he said a south Texas landfall
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2096. emguy
Quoting weatherh98:


Well floridians are like yelling Florida the texans are callin cat 2 Debby hitting them and its pretty flip flop for the rest of the gulf coast. Levi picked Texas solution because he doesn't think the trough can dig in deep enough


Actually, If you watch his video from yesterday (LINK) ...Levi was also on the fence on an east or west path, but hinted at more of an Allison situation...which may tag the Texas area, but still heads east in the end. Either way, none of his models actually showed a Texas Landfall, just hinted at very weak and ill defined vorticity in the Gulf south of it...and I don't think he every painted a picture of something Texas bound. His info was good for the timeframe. Much more info now so I would expect he would be much more discript and in line with the Florida situation. Either way, the scenario of any possible flitations with Texas was never a decent possbility and is far less likely now. If something did head to Texas, than this will never been a storm named Debby and this whole conversation is moot.
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WOW CMC!!!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


But they have their storm still over Florida on day 7. Guess that's why I was confused. :)



The reason why the NHC thinks this will come to FL is the fact that there are 2 troughs coming down one this weekend and a stronger one come Monday into Tuesday and it's the stronger one that the Euro feels and pulls what looks will be Debby across FL.
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6Z GFS
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Quoting emguy:


I will say this...though not impossible...it is the first time I've ever heard of a convective feedback issue on the Euro. In fact...I actually was playfully wondering about comments in the NWS Miami Discussion, because they mentioned contamination in the GFS was contagious into the Euro. The Euro is a model held close to the chest by those guys...to prevent this contamination. That model is not initialized by the GFS like others are. Part of where my confidence in the models spikes when the Euro and GFS actually agree on something.


Yes, first I've heard that about the EURO as well.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Good morning. No relieve in sight to the very warm temperatures in Puerto Rico.

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS RANKS AS THE SIXTH LONGEST STREAK
NOW TIED WITH 1987. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE
35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 25 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 5 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F AND THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 1983 WITH 7.
THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.
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Still hinting at activity off of Africa.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting emguy:


Hehe...I like you, so I hope this doesn't sound familiar to last night, but is the NAM trying to drive a low into a ridge again? Why the NAM is not reliable. The GFS and EURO seem to be nailing this down really well now...Florida...expect rain in the long term...and maybe a little something more if it develops. Secondary note...if this parks over the Gulf of Mexico for 5-6 days...goodbye abnormally warm seas surface temperature anomolies for this season. Sure, the gulf will be tropically warm as usual, but the temps WILL be cut down to size, SIGNIFICANTLY abating the risk of numerous monster storms in the Gulf this year. Development or not, this may have major impacts on the rest of the season for sure.


I do not think that your last sentence is very accurate you can still get a major hurricane in the Gulf, could the water cool off briefly sure it can. It will heat right back up in a few weeks. It would take major upwelling to cause what you are saying, which isn't very likely.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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