Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Good Morning.

"60mph tropical storm"
Yeah right.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Why do most bloggers have numbers in their use rnames?.I'd forgotten why I put 115 in my user name.


I've always thought that 3 numbers after a user name usually refers to an area code?
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2187. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why do most bloggers have numbers in their use rnames?.I'd forgotten why I put 115 in my user name.


Some people put their age. :)
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Why do most bloggers have numbers in their use rnames?.I'd forgotten why I put 115 in my user name.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


1 The chances that this system hitting Florida is 60%
2 Chance it hits as a Tropical Storms is 60%
3 Chance it hits as a Hurricane 35%


Tampa bay area/ that part of the west coast of flordia seem to be a "dead" area historically as far as tropical systems go. I believe if it does hit flordia it will be 100 miles north of Tampa or 100 miles south of Sarasota.
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2184. MahFL
Quoting gatorchomp:
What's the chance this thing becomes a TS or hurricane and hits Tampa?


Pretty high.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It also looked as if the Cuba robbed some of the rain for s FL yesterday which appears to be the case today.



S Florida is getting robbed because the system is trying to consolidate around a developing LLC in the Yucatan channel.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
WOW!!!!

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...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR
NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S
ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE
. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E
GULF SUN AND MON.

Still another solution?
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2180. tramp96
Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand. Many areas across Florida received a lot of rain. My point was that the forecast showed the heaviest rainfall right off my coast, and we were expecting clouds, wind, and half a foot or precipitation. Instead, however, we got nothing--not even a trace--and clear skies. I'm just curious how and why that happened, that's all...

Just blame Bush. He did it I'm confident of that.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand. Many areas across Florida received a lot of rain. My point was that the forecast showed the heaviest rainfall right off my coast, and we were expecting clouds, wind, and half a foot or precipitation. Instead, however, we got nothing--not even a trace--and clear skies. I'm just curious how and why that happened, that's all...


It also looked as if the Cuba robbed some of the rain for s FL yesterday which appears to be the case today.

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Quoting gatorchomp:
What's the chance this thing becomes a TS or hurricane and hits Tampa?


1 The chances that this system hitting Florida is 60%
2 Chance it hits as a Tropical Storms is 60%
3 Chance it hits as a Hurricane 35%
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Even though Chris looks like a hurricane, it doesn't mean he is one.
Thats not how it works.
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Models show something off of "Africa" when supposed "Debby" is out of the picture.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand. Many areas across Florida received a lot of rain. My point was that the forecast showed the heaviest rainfall right off my coast, and we were expecting clouds, wind, and half a foot or precipitation. Instead, however, we got nothing--not even a trace--and clear skies. I'm just curious how and why that happened, that's all...


I think the biggest reason is that this area of disturbed weather is still very disorganized but don't worry as this continues to gather it self over the coming days then slugs of heavy rain will be coming into SW FL.
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i rally wish you guys stop geting on the NHC for not upgradeing this too a hurricane its geting vary old vary fast am with the nhc on Chris its entering cooler waters and if it was going too get upgrade it would be at post season
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The NHC explanation for not upgrading Chris is silly, why did they bother to allow for some of those cold water hurricanes in 2005?
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2170. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Melbourne got 2.17" yesterday which broke a record.
I understand. Many areas across Florida received a lot of rain. My point was that the forecast showed the heaviest rainfall right off my coast, and we were expecting clouds, wind, and half a foot or precipitation. Instead, however, we got nothing--not even a trace--and clear skies. I'm just curious how and why that happened, that's all...
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2167. KORBIN
THE 1010 MB LOW HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH AT
21/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 29N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
20N87W.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N81W TO 21N87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA...SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO S OF 29N W OF 90W...
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 77W...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF HISPANIOLA.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope that doesn't happen man :(.It would sadden the hell outta me to see people's lives destroyed.But if it does verify I'll have that sick feeling in my stomach like i had when seeing storms such as Ike and Katrina when they were barreling(no pun intended to Beryl) to the coast.


I had a sick feeling when I saw the EURO. Don't know if it will verify. Hope not.

THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND SAT
UNFORTUNATELY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NE GULF BY LATE SUN DRAWING THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT LIKELY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
DEEPENS A NEW LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON...AHEAD OF THE
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH...REACHING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
STRENGTH BY MON NIGHT. THE NOGAPS FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUN...DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE NE GULF. THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFFLICTING THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE CONTAGIOUS AS THE ECMWF PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN THE LOW IN PLACE
OVER THE NE GULF. THE UKMET MEANWHILE HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING THIS NE TURN IS NOW INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
THE NW GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OF NE FLORIDA IN THE ATLC...ANDTHE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NE GULF...AND
INSTEAD FOLLOWS THE GEFS...ALTHOUGH CONTINUES THE GFS/ECMWF TREND
OF MOVING THE SURFACE FURTHER EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Miami NWS Discussion

FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.

THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
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Inre comment2133 by NCHurricane2009,
Love your explanation about WHY TS.Chris is behaving as it is.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
And to imagine we weren't suppose to be talking about Chris today because it was suppose to become a extra tropical cyclone by now and be swept up into a frontal system.
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Quoting redwagon:

That little blob at the border looks like it wants trouble....


Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Shame.Post season should support a 75mph hurricane..This is like Igor all over again..
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like a Strong Ridge over a Weak Low, remember last years weak tropical system that hit Texas? Not even a cloud here, the weak storm hit my 110 degree temps and vanished, LOL.

That little blob at the border looks like it wants trouble....
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Ok.. This here is what we like to call a HURRICANE...


CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -50C TO -60C DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND DO NOT SUPPORT A
HIGHER INTENSITY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT. EVEN
IF CHRIS IS STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED...THE PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE
OVER SUB-22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD BE INHIBITING AN
EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
OCEAN SURFACE.

Wow... Just wow.....
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2158. icmoore
Good morning everybody it looks like some sanity has returned to the blog this morning. It is 78 degrees with 94% humidity, SE wind 15 MPH, Barometer 29.94" and mostly clear skies in Madeira Beach this morning. Yesterday's rain mostly went south and north of us only a sprinkle here. I will start reading back to try and find out if there is any more certainty to this low developing and it's general direction and as always thanks for all that you do!
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Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:


I hope the ridge stays in place with some light to moderate drought conditions for a few weeks- not wishing for anything remotely like last year, but maybe just enough to kill off all of these trillions of crickets The Great Texas cricket plague of 2012 that I can report has now spread to North TX with a vengeance. I am not exaggerating either- it is of biblical proportions with every square inch of pavement near the entrances to some big box stores filled with gigantic piles of dead decomposing crickets everywhere you look, at least the extermination companies will get an uptick in business much like the hail storms benefit the roofers or the drought last year was a windfall for many foundation repair companies, remember there is a silver lining to almost everything in this life!


That sounds awful! And I hope they go away. But we had drought resistant mosquitoes down here last year so...
;)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
2156. ncstorm
the trough is COMING!!..we will be below climo temps next week..NWS, Wilmington, NC

IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A PATTERN MORE COMMONLY OBSERVED IN FEBRUARY
THAN JUNE...AN ANOMALOUS...ALMOST ARCTIC-LIKE...POLAR VORTEX LOADS
UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY OF CANADA AND DROPS NEARLY DUE
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FORCES FULL LATITUDE
EAST-COAST TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND DRIVES A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND GFS MAY BE TOO STRONG...BUT DO FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT
EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING MID WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE PLAINS
RIDGE. FORCING LOOKS DECENT WITH THE FROPA...SO WILL CARRY CHC POP
FOR TUESDAY. TRUE CAA OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH THE CORE
OF THE VORTEX WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA (WHERE 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES DROP POTENTIALLY INTO THE 550DM RANGE!)...LOW 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW
CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH
THESE VERY COOL TEMPS ALOFT CREATE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...VERY LOW
MID LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION AFTER TUESDAY.

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I hope that doesn't happen man :(.It would sadden the hell outta me to see people's lives destroyed.But if it does verify I'll have that sick feeling in my stomach like i had when seeing storms such as Ike and Katrina when they were barreling(no pun intended to Beryl) to the coast.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I woke up and say hey, lets see what the models are showing..WTW!!!

960 mb???



It hits my county!!
:O
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2152. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think their holding off on invest 96L until a dominant center forms. And..oh my lord WTF!.Of course that's one run though.Interesting enough that the models have been trending with a stronger system over the past few days...


I had to go grab my coffee behind that run..LOL
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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The Ridge is a big bad bully, Debby is wearing a diaper. LOL


Lol. I'll go along with the first half of that statement. Too superstitious to any farther. :P
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
2149. MahFL
I want a Cat 2 Hurricane smashing into the Big Bend area, no wishy washy weak system please.
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WOW ECMWF That is 108MPH
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
New update on my blog...I have been doing these about every 24 hours...check it out...

I still haven't bought into the Gulf of Mexico disturbance tracking up the east coast...see my blog on why....


I think there will be a tug of war where the system drifts for a few days or just be stationary thus giving it time to strengthen and if it deepens enough it will feel the weakness. Maybe the Texas high will be strong but the Bermuda high will be really and there is already a weakness over Florida just to get the system north however with a deep trough it amplify the weakness even more thus it gets pulled NE.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
2119 LargoFl: ["Slow development possible" map]

I must have an odd sense of humor*. Choked on a sip of coffee. That area has been "slow development possible" darn near since 95L (nowTS.Chris) was first Invested.
Anything that pops up there is going to have developed s...l...o...w...l...y...

* And maybe Klystron shares it
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Should be a hurricane and we should have invest 96L as well. JMO
I think their holding off on invest 96L until a dominant center forms.
Quoting ncstorm:
I woke up and say hey, lets see what the models are showing..WTW!!!

960 mb???


And..oh my lord WTF!.Of course that's one run though.Interesting enough that the models have been trending with a stronger system over the past few days...
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IT going to FL
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Quoting emguy:


Understand where you are coming from, but your comment is somewhat incorrect. Lots of good data going into the models from buoys and other land/seas based observations on this. Please read my earlier comment of it. Typically, I would agree with you if we had a deep cluster of thunderstorms trying to develop into something that doesn't have a low pressure center. However, this is the opposite...we have a low looking for favorable winds and thunderstoms. The Low is already trackable and in the global model data in it's current evolution.


I was referring to the track over time..for example if the COC forms more to the west..the track would be different. It seems moot anyway now as the faint Circ
from yesterday is more well defined at about 25N/86W.
Now all we have to see verify is the weakening of the ridge and also see how far south the troughs dig...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Two days ago, NOAA's HPC was, of course, calling for heavy rain across South Florida, with my area set to receive anywhere from 3" up to 10". Well, I've watched the HPC for years, and learned long ago to take such forecasts with not just a grain of salt, but a whole bag of it. The thing is, in all the time I've known them, they have correctly predicted a major precipitation event once for any place I've lived (a Pineapple Express even in Southern California); either they've completely missed out and I was deluged, or--far more frequently, and as happened this week--they've wildly overestimated what they thought we might get.

I can live with that, of course; I know predicting such things is inexact science. But, still, I had my hopes up. After all, it's been a drier than normal June here in Naples, and a drier than normal year; it would have been great to get something.

With my past HPC experiences, I figured the high end of the forecast was greatly overstated; there's no way we'd see anything close to 10" of rain. And, again given my experience with them, I figured even the low end of the forecast was probably too high. Keeping that in mind, then, I figured we'd get maybe an inch or two. That wouldn't be enough to make up our monthly or year deficit, but it would be a huge help.

Fat chance.

Instead of rain on Tuesday evening, we got mostly cloudy. Instead of rain Tuesday night, we got overcast. Instead of "heavy rain" yesterday, we got mostly cloudy again. And instead of "heavy rain" last night, we got partly cloudy. And this morning the sun arose to shine unhindered and unfiltered on bone-dry roads, sidewalks, and lawns.

I know the rains will come; they always do. And I'm seldom one to criticize; I know how difficult a meteorologist's job can be. But, seriously, when an entity's short-term forecast is for 3"-10" of heavy rain with strong winds, and instead we receive only fluffy clouds, sunshine, and a light breeze, I gotta ask: how could they get it so wrong?

Idle thoughts for a Thursday morning... ;-)


Melbourne got 2.17" yesterday which broke a record.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
RIDGE!



I hope the ridge stays in place with some light to moderate drought conditions for a few weeks- not wishing for anything remotely like last year, but maybe just enough to kill off all of these trillions of crickets The Great Texas cricket plague of 2012 that I can report has now spread to North TX with a vengeance. I am not exaggerating either- it is of biblical proportions with every square inch of pavement near the entrances to some big box stores filled with gigantic piles of dead decomposing crickets everywhere you look, at least the extermination companies will get an uptick in business much like the hail storms benefit the roofers or the drought last year was a windfall for many foundation repair companies, remember there is a silver lining to almost everything in this life!
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WOW lol
Quoting ncstorm:
I woke up and say hey, lets see what the models are showing..WTW!!!

960 mb???


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.