Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, June 20th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting 1900hurricane:
An ice storm might be even worse than that! I've been to Duluth once when I was much younger about ten to twelve years ago or so, and I distinctly remember wondering how people could drive up the hill in the winter with the snow and ice. Of course, in my young eyes, Duluth also looked about as steep as Mesa Verde to me. :P
some blocks are Really Steep!! especially half way up the hill from Downtown... the ice is usually in play during winter, and i've been white knuckled far too many times visiting friends, myself coming up from the Cities.. of course, locals handle it better.
i shouldn't downplay this rainfall either; pretty intense reports, including this very unfortunate story about zoo animals.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
There is almost nowhere in the Arctic Sea ice where you can't see cracks exposing the open ocean. MODIS today.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
Quoting weatherh98:
He is at weather bell noe


i know but he is stil associated with them and people seem to talk about him and them interchangeably.

Which is why i aksed
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
good morning all!! I think the system has a 50% chance of developing in the east coast and 50% in the gulf and affecting Texas and Louisiana.when are all the models developing the wave near Africa in June or July?
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Accuweather says:
Furthermore, Chris does not look like a well-organized tropical system on satellite.


i think this is typical accuweather.
write something up the night before, post it the next morning, regardless of what changes that night.

chris looked miserable last night and looks much better today.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Winds: 50mph (45knots)
Pressure: 1000 mbars.

No the 11am advisory hasen't been issued, but this is likely what Chris's intensity will be when they issue the advisory.
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Quoting lilElla:
I was in Duluth in 1972 and can remember being parked in what is now Canal Park, waiting for 3 hours before the rain/water subsided enough so we could get up the hill! Good news site if anyone is interested.
http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/

On July 21, 1972, the largest 24-hour rainfall recorded in Minnesota resulted in major flash flooding in central Minnesota. Thirteen counties were declared disaster areas.

On August 27, locally intense thunderstorms produced excessive rainfall over central Utah. The discharge of Vernon Creek at Vernon, Utah (station 10172700, table 46), was greater than the 100-year recurrence interval for the area .

Three flash floods in 1972 occurred in Duluth, Minnesota. The largest flash flood hit the area on September 20 and caused two deaths and $1 million in damages. The largest recorded storm in Minnesota history occurred on July 21, 1972, in central Minnesota. A detailed map of this storm was prepared by NWS with data from 245 reporting stations including 215 reports from Operation Rain Gauge. These reports make this the most thoroughly documented heavy rainstorm in Minnesota's history. The storm caused the greatest monetary losses ever experienced in the state for a flash flood. Total damages are estimated at 20 million dollers. Of this total, 5.9 million dollars were damages to the road system, and 3.1 million dollars of this involved damages to the federal-aid system. The events that occurred at Clarissa, Minnesota, a typical small-town community with a population of 599, during this storm are discussed. Also included in this report is a discussion of the occurrences during three large thunderstorms which struck the City of Duluth, a metropolitan area of 100,000 people, during August and September of 1972. The purpose of this report was to illustrate the dilemma faced by the highway engineer, whose task is to properly assess the public benefit versus the high economic cost factors involved in designing drainage structures for passage of runoff from large storms without adequate research information on the probable frequency, magnitude, duration, and location of these storms.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


accuweather or bastardi
Both.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


accuweather or bastardi
He is at weather bell noe
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


But won't NOLA have a ridge on it? I think if it turns east it'll have to be farther south. Or not. lol. I'm still learning. :)


It's gonna hit NOLA duuhhh
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather isn't to happy about the NHC naming Chris.


accuweather or bastardi
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
A drone would be useful for a storm like chris.
dont you guys think so?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Accuweather isn't to happy about the NHC naming Chris.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


this agrees with the CMC, a stall near NOLA and then just south of the coast east to FL and then out to sea.


I am so confused....lol
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Good morning all!

Chris definitely seems to be wrapping up. Looks stronger than 45mph, but we shall see what the NHC says in about 10-15 minutes.


They're going to up his intensity to 45 knots.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


distance to shore is very hard to tell at this point, the system hasnt even consolidated yet, it could make landfall or be 100 miles off shore, idk what will happen


Oh ok. Yeah this one's gonna be tricky. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm still not sold on it headed to Florida. Texas or Louisiana seems to be a good bet. That's not to say it can't go to Florida, I just don't see it happening.


Whatever form this next system takes, its not headed to the western GOM. Its headed east or NE - there will be a monster area of low pressure and its associated trough setting up east of the Mississippi this weekend, not to mention the ridge over Texas continues to grow.
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Good morning all!

Chris definitely seems to be wrapping up. Looks stronger than 45mph, but we shall see what the NHC says in about 10-15 minutes.

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I was in Duluth in 1972 and can remember being parked in what is now Canal Park, waiting for 3 hours before the rain/water subsided enough so we could get up the hill! Good news site if anyone is interested.
http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/
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65. 7544
looks like a nice spin now going on just sw of the keys invest 96l could be at anytime now imo models should be interesting this run on the speghitti side
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


But won't NOLA have a ridge on it? I think if it turns east it'll have to be farther south. Or not. lol. I'm still learning. :)


distance to shore is very hard to tell at this point, the system hasnt even consolidated yet, it could make landfall or be 100 miles off shore, idk what will happen
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES REMAIN LOCKED IN POSITION. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE HAVE
EXTENDED THE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SOME WEAK SWELL FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 OVER THE OPEN WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE FROM THAT
DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS
WILL MOST LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS...AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF BECOMES THE MAJOR PLAYER. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT MIGHT OCCUR.
13/MH

From N.O. Fcst discussion this morning
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Quoting Joe21:
Just saw on the weather channel karl parker said that some of the models form something off the east coast of florida and form two lows in gomex one if them broad and the orther which is small and compacted making landfall on florida west coast and doing a fay track.all I have to say is anything is possible .


I stated earlier last week that the model runs were showing two storms simultaneously..one in the GOM and one on the east coast and asked if that ever happened before..looks like it may just come to fruition
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Well, well, well,...

Look who's in the pudding.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


this agrees with the CMC, a stall near NOLA and then just south of the coast east to FL and then out to sea.


But won't NOLA have a ridge on it? I think if it turns east it'll have to be farther south. Or not. lol. I'm still learning. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Joe21:
Just saw on the weather channel karl parker said that some of the models form something off the east coast of florida and form two lows in gomex one if them broad and the orther which is small and compacted making landfall on florida west coast and doing a fay track.all I have to say is anything is possible .



what you just said isnt ;)

What isnt possible is TWC giving the truth and not these bogus hyped up solutions.
especially since Dr. Knabb is gone
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Just saw on the weather channel karl parker said that some of the models form something off the east coast of florida and form two lows in gomex one if them broad and the orther which is small and compacted making landfall on florida west coast and doing a fay track.all I have to say is anything is possible .
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
UPDATED PRELIM...
THE UPDATED PRELIM GRAPHICS WERE UPDATED USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4...FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS FOR DAYS 5-7. THIS RESULTED IN
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST.
THE GFS STILL LOOKS SKEPTICAL COMPARED TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ITS 06Z RUN COMING IN JUST AS AMPLIFIED AS
THE 00Z RUN. THE 00Z UKMET DOES OFFER SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
STILL SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 5-7. THE 00Z GFS/00Z
CMC/06Z GFS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.



i had to read all that to get
"there will be something in the gulf, we have no idea what will happen, so we will call the NHC!!"
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
UPDATED PRELIM...
THE UPDATED PRELIM GRAPHICS WERE UPDATED USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4...FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS FOR DAYS 5-7. THIS RESULTED IN
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST.
THE GFS STILL LOOKS SKEPTICAL COMPARED TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ITS 06Z RUN COMING IN JUST AS AMPLIFIED AS
THE 00Z RUN. THE 00Z UKMET DOES OFFER SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
STILL SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 5-7. THE 00Z GFS/00Z
CMC/06Z GFS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.


the afternoon conference calls seem to be an every day thing now in the discussions since the possibility of the gulf system developing increased..a lot of uncertanity and everyone is crossing their t's with this one across the weather offices
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ECMWF ensembles also agree with the operational on the recurve back into Florida. Same with the GFS ensembles.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is probably an "oh crap" moment right here:

MNC075-201700-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LAKE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
810 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE LAKE
COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

COMMUNICATION IN LAKE COUNTY IS OUT. THERE IS NO INTERNET...CELL
PHONE OR LANDLINE AT THE SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

IF YOU HAVE A 475 NUMBER...YOU SHOULD CONTACT HOVLAND FIRE AT
475-2352. IF YOU HAVE A 663 NUMBER...YOU SHOULD CALL LUTSEN AT
663-7002. IF YOU HAVE A 388 NUMBER...CONTACT GUNFLINT AT 388-0313.

$$

DAP


Awe man. :(
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm still not sold on it headed to Florida. Texas or Louisiana seems to be a good bet. That's not to say it can't go to Florida, I just don't see it happening.


neither did i but we have the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAM, so i dont really see it going to TX anymore.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
UPDATED PRELIM...
THE UPDATED PRELIM GRAPHICS WERE UPDATED USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4...FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS FOR DAYS 5-7. THIS RESULTED IN
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST.
THE GFS STILL LOOKS SKEPTICAL COMPARED TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ITS 06Z RUN COMING IN JUST AS AMPLIFIED AS
THE 00Z RUN. THE 00Z UKMET DOES OFFER SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
STILL SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 5-7. THE 00Z GFS/00Z
CMC/06Z GFS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
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49. 7544
ok have to wait on levi for this its too confusing
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


there you are.

looks like debby will miss you if it goes off the east coast.

new NAM coming out

I'm still not sold on it headed to Florida. Texas or Louisiana seems to be a good bet. That's not to say it can't go to Florida, I just don't see it happening.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523
This is probably an "oh crap" moment right here:

MNC075-201700-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LAKE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
810 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE LAKE
COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

COMMUNICATION IN LAKE COUNTY IS OUT. THERE IS NO INTERNET...CELL
PHONE OR LANDLINE AT THE SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

IF YOU HAVE A 475 NUMBER...YOU SHOULD CONTACT HOVLAND FIRE AT
475-2352. IF YOU HAVE A 663 NUMBER...YOU SHOULD CALL LUTSEN AT
663-7002. IF YOU HAVE A 388 NUMBER...CONTACT GUNFLINT AT 388-0313.

$$

DAP
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Quoting weatherbro:
I guess the PNA will be spiken!!!


Yeah, but which way? I see spikes in both directions!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Chris:



there you are.

looks like debby will miss you if it goes off the east coast.

new NAM coming out
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting Minnemike:
still better than the 3+ feet of snow and constant gales whipping up from a fierce Superior.. but Hwy 61 along the shore is certainly a mess per news reports. i can vouch for the 'aging infrastructure'!
An ice storm might be even worse than that! I've been to Duluth once when I was much younger about ten to twelve years ago or so, and I distinctly remember wondering how people could drive up the hill in the winter with the snow and ice. Of course, in my young eyes, Duluth also looked about as steep as Mesa Verde to me. :P
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Quoting RitaEvac:
So according to this run, it's going right into high pressure



this agrees with the CMC, a stall near NOLA and then just south of the coast east to FL and then out to sea.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Tropical Storm Chris:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32523
I guess the PNA will be spiken!!!

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
wow


WOW indeed...South Florida is in for it's share of wet weather for a few days...be careful out there..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.