Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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From the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion:

THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS OFF TO IT`S WARMEST START IN RECORDED WEATHER HISTORY. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THROUGH JUNE 15TH IS CURRENTLY 69.6 DEGREES. THE SECOND WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD (THROUGH JUNE 15TH) WAS BACK IN 1911 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. ALL FOUR FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES ARE OFF TO THEIR WARMEST STARTS IN RECORDED WEATHER HISTORY [...] HOUSTON HOBBY AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE YET TO RECORD A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD THIS YEAR.THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS ONLY RECORDED ONE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD IN ALL OF 2012 (JANUARY 20TH) WHICH MAKES THE WARM START TO THE YEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE.

And here I was thinking it had been kind of cool here lately! I think that's just from what I remember of last year this time as the ridge got cranked up.
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Now drifting N instead of NW.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1105 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH LIES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NAPLES
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
YUCATAN ALONG THE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF
THU...THEN DRIFT N TO NEAR 26N86W SUN WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NE GULF.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Good morning!
**GRAPHICS UPDATE**
(click to enlarge)
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Quoting Patrap:


Things seem to be shifting to a GOM Solution in 48-72..so wheels up from Keesler for a peek a boo Vortex search will be interesting.


Lots of chatter, noise, and chaos going on too
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Some turning evident in the Radar view, the Sw portion of it.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
i.see.two.spins.boc.&west.cuba
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


...I'm a guy Janiel.


Janiel is an it, so it can't really differentiate between male/female very well.

Good morning to all. Definitely looks like we have an area consolidating into a low pressure this morning.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a Invest at 2pm??


It could happen at any time and is not dependent on a certain outlook time or on the color or lack of NHC circle
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Note the Heart shaped bloom over the Western part of the Trough

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Made a short blog just for Chris. I'll write about our potential Gulf development later.

Tropical Storm Chris forms
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Pat,the squadron will be ready for Friday afternoon to check the Gulf area.

NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



Things seem to be shifting to a GOM Solution in 48-72..so wheels up from Keesler for a peek a boo Vortex search will be interesting.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Teddy, is she heads your way, would you consider evacuating, ma'am?


...I'm a guy Janiel.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23887
Quoting Bobbyweather:

ACE is based solely on wind speed, just in case you didn't know.
As of 11am EDT, the ACE for Chris is 0.6825.


yah, iknow, the eye remark had nothing to do with ace
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
morning guys I see a low level spin just NE of Honduras on rgb moving ENE quickly to the Cayman Islands maybe trying to get under the convection

on 925 vort there is three palce of higher vort #1 N of NW tip of cuba #2 in the BOC #3 just NE of Honduras

by the looks of it the BOC has a good spin with convection but is moving E-ENE

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a Invest at 2pm??
12 to 18 hrs from last TWO
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm still not sold on it headed to Florida. Texas or Louisiana seems to be a good bet. That's not to say it can't go to Florida, I just don't see it happening.


No way this goes to TX with what appears to be a low forming SW of Key West. All models show a recurve to FL with in 4 to 5 days. That's a pretty strong trough coming toward the Mid Atlantic and the weakness is now in place across FL. By the way the rain is now even moving up toward orlando.





Sky Cam really shows the moisture increasing now over orlando.
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
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90L was a fair looking feburary invest in the caribbean.
91L was a pathetic looking NE atlantic invest
92L fired convection for a two or three days but it didnt persist
93L became Alberto
94L became Beryl
95L became Chris
96L.....
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Will we get a Invest at 2pm??
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Still not a drop in Naples; storms are drying and dying as they cross the Everglades. We may eventually see a few sprinkles, though; one can always hope. ;-)
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Wednesday 20 June 2012
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.05 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 90.1°F
Dewpoint: 69.1°F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind: W 8 gust 17 mph
Humidex: 105


not even noon yet
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Wow! The Tropics are REALLY picking up...is this due to MJO?



Note the heart shaped symbol south of western Cuba
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that looks like an eye on chris
j/k

anyone have hte ACE from chris?

ACE is based solely on wind speed, just in case you didn't know.
As of 11am EDT, the ACE for Chris is 0.6825.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
Quoting LargoFl:


Hey Largo, could you please provide a link to the graphic in post #103. Thanks.
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161. 7544
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that looks like an eye on chris
j/k

anyone have hte ACE from chris?



poss low level invest nw cuba
area of disturbed weather in central BOC

and these two will meet in gom to make 96l right
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that looks like an eye on chris
j/k

anyone have hte ACE from chris?


Currect ACE for Chris.

0.6825
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Atlas V launch was so fast and didn't leave the cool white cloud trail like the shuttle used to.
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Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 612
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
tropical atlantic basin in a nutshell

tropical storm chris n central atlantic
aoi nne of pr
poss low level invest nw cuba
area of disturbed weather in central BOC




that looks like an eye on chris
j/k

anyone have hte ACE from chris?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
our we going to get a Invest at 2pm??
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Taiwan getting more heavy rains today from Talim... not at all what they need

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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormChris for 20June12pmGMT:
Its vector* had changed from ESEast at 19.4mph(31.2km/h) to East at 21.9mph(35.2km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 1005millibars to 1000millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Chris's path...
ISP is LongIsland,NewYork : BDA is Bermuda :: YYT is SaintJohns,Newfoundland

The SWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest95L was initiated, as a closedLOw.
The NEasternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris
The Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is TS.Chris's most recent position.

Copy&paste isp, bda, yyt, 28.8n68.8w- 29.2n67.1w- 30.4n65.3w- 31.7n64.0w- 33.4n63.5w- 35.3n62.5w- 36.8n61.9w- 38.0n61.3w- 38.5n60.5w- 39.1n59.6w- 39.4n58.5w- 39.5n58.0w, 39.5n58.0w-38.9n56.7w, 38.9n56.7w-38.3n54.7w, 38.3n54.7w-38.1n52.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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This situation is one of the more complicated track and genesis situations I have ever seen, because it would be different if it was just the GFS over-amplifying the trough - but the ECMWF, GFS, CMC and their respective ENS means are also showing the system heading back into Florida. But then you have the Japanese models, NAFES, ect showing the pressures being more focused in the Gulf. Normally, I would discount them in favor of the global models - but the ridge is very strong over the US, yet you still have the models showing a very strong trough coming in. You're basically going to split the system in half completely, I think the GFS may be on to something with the system developing near Florida then reaching peak intensity out in the Atlantic, as conditions are far more favorable.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23887
tropical atlantic basin in a nutshell

tropical storm chris n central atlantic
aoi nne of pr
poss low level invest nw cuba
area of disturbed weather in central BOC


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Would a fish storm like Chris even be detected in the 1880's? Would sailors note the wave height and frequency to know it was even there?

I'm just trying to gage how thorough the storm record would be in and around 1887.
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12z NAM

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Pat,the squadron will be ready for Friday afternoon to check the Gulf area.

NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Interesting the JMA model still takes it to the wgom.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not your fault, i was just joking.
that is basically what they said though


I know you were joking. And I agree. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
our we going to get a Invest at 2pm??
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is probably an "oh crap" moment right here:

MNC075-201700-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LAKE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
810 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE LAKE
COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

COMMUNICATION IN LAKE COUNTY IS OUT. THERE IS NO INTERNET...CELL
PHONE OR LANDLINE AT THE SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

IF YOU HAVE A 475 NUMBER...YOU SHOULD CONTACT HOVLAND FIRE AT
475-2352. IF YOU HAVE A 663 NUMBER...YOU SHOULD CALL LUTSEN AT
663-7002. IF YOU HAVE A 388 NUMBER...CONTACT GUNFLINT AT 388-0313.

$$

DAP
They must have underground wiring.
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Quoting allancalderini:
It really wants to make it to hurricane status.
I would agree but as with all storms this year the convection is just to shallow IMO.
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Duluth, MN wunderpage

Active Advisory: Flood Warning, Areal Flood Warning, Flash Flood Warning, Flash Flood Watch, Special Statement (US Severe Weather) Active Notice: Record Report, Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement
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there is also a secondary area of interest
now to n ne of PR in eastern
sw tropical atlantic
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WOW... I just got back from an early shift at work, and I must say, Chris looka way better than a low-end TS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to laugh if this becomes a hurricane.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 994.9mb/ 45.0kt

It really wants to make it to hurricane status.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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