Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting RussianWinter:


Are you referring to that area a bit west of the dry Tortugas?


That seems to be the area of Lowest pressure as per Buoy reports.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Fixed.
LOL you guys are too much.
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Dangerous rip currents claim lives at Florida beaches
Posted on June 19, 2012
June 19, 2012 – FLORIDA – An outbreak of rip currents at beaches in Florida has claimed several lives and endangered dozens more in recent days, prompting the National Weather Service to extend its public warnings to beachgoers. Over this past weekend, two people drowned and more than 70 had to be rescued from rip currents in a single Florida county on the Atlantic coast, officials there told ABC News.

Link

Another storm to watch...

Powder keg: Largest joint exercise in Middle East history- troops, tanks, planes and even Russian nuclear subs
Posted on June 19, 2012

June 19, 2012 – MIDDLE EAST – Iran, Syria, Russia and China are planning the “biggest-ever wargames in the Middle East,” according to an unconfirmed report on the semi-official Iranian news site Fars News. According to the article, the four countries are preparing 90,000 troops, 400 aircraft and 1,000 tanks for the massive joint maneuvers, which are to take place along the Syrian coast within a month. The report states that Russian “atomic submarines and warships, aircraft carriers and mine-clearing destroyers as well as Iranian battleships and submarines will also arrive in Syria” and that Egypt has agreed to let 12 Chinese warships cross the Suez Canal for the exercises..........

Link
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

More like Vince 2005
although I kinda doubt that the NHC will call Chris a hurricanes, these northern extropical originating storms develop eye-like features all the time.


Cindy of last year a good example, and it peaked at 70 mph (after post season analysis)

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Quoting ScottLincoln:


http://instagr.am/p/MGa4m7x9aI/

Wow, it looks like it might be the exact same location too! Good find.
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I'm a psychologist who wrote that in thirty seconds. Not a hobby. He needs help, just trying.
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Quoting Patrap:
.."will it go round in circle's"..?



Are you referring to that area a bit west of the dry Tortugas?
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AL032012 - Tropical Storm CHRIS

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'd say 70mph based solely off of visible satellite imagery.



Hey man, what you think of the caribbean disturbance?
Its seem we could have a LLC west of Key west?
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Cry me a river as I play the violin in the background as tears scroll down my cheeks.

You're something else.

I'm through with you.

CORRECTION ON A FINAL NOTE: I've been trolling here since '07, so that you know. Long before you ever stumbled across this site!
Fixed.
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366.

Thanks for taking the bait. I appreciate it. I never realized that you had started with me, so how could you be "through" with me?
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Cry me a river as I play the violin in the background as tears scroll down my cheeks.

You're something else.

I'm through with you.

CORRECTION ON A FINAL NOTE: I've been blogging here since '07, so that you know. Long before you ever stumbled across this site!


Well... since 07 you've been blogging under several names if that's what you were implying.

Bye Janiel.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow this guy has more names than one can keep track of, for a troll he's pretty harmless. Seems like he wants to be liked but has no way to go about it. He doesn't spout off anti GW, or post pages of crap, or insult people (anymore). Wonder if he wants to be a reformed troll. Apologizing to the blog and those who run the site would be a start. It does seem he gets his kicks from coming back and being recognized more than anything else. This is small thinking, the kind that is delivered from those who during there formative years didn't get the attention they needed. This leads to anti-social behaviors of all sorts. SuothFloridian2012 is a man of few friends with an abusive background from his parents. This may be one of his only outlets for attention. This may seem like very small and petty behavior but it is a sign of much larger issues. Sometimes all people need in life is a real friend who comes with no conditions attached. So, if your listening SuothFloridian2012 please don't fake apologize, really repent of this childish behavior and be better. He probably feels worthless and unworthy too. When one believes these things about themselves, small, often very bad behaviors are never far behind.
LOL, time for a new hobby bro.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
I can only imagine what this creek in Duluth looks like right now.



http://instagr.am/p/MGa4m7x9aI/
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I'd say 70mph based solely off of visible satellite imagery.

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996 mb. storm right over Tampa Bay in 138 hrs. according to this run of the GFS.

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Quoting ncstorm:


985mb


Wednesday doesn't look to far.
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.."will it go round in circle's"..?

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wait a minute, something is going on in tropics chat.
alerts that dont seem to be from a user seem to be popping up.

any ideas?

tampashield is there
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Quoting TideWaterWeather:
mostly a lurker here.. But I have to say something.. even thinking about believing a models intensity forecast, prior to the storms formation, is ridiculous..


Models usually have a better grasp on a storm when it's an invest, particulary if it's well organized, or even formed. I'm not trusting models.... yet.

BTW hello fellow Virginian!
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Whatever circulation there is with the Caribbean Disturbance, it would appear that a weak circulation is ENE of Roatan, Honduras.
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Quoting allancalderini:
If Chris becomes a hurricane it will remind me of Shary of 2010.

More like Vince 2005
although I kinda doubt that the NHC will call Chris a hurricanes, these northern extropical originating storms develop eye-like features all the time.
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Starting to see marginal VFR flight rules pop up now in South Florida...

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347. I think you have me confused with someone else. I never have communicated under the handle "DestinJeff", and it would be rather foolish of me to do so, as I live in SE TX, which is about 800+ miles away. Also, I should point out that I have been a registered user of this site for almost 4 years, while your handle is a whopping one day old. If you count the other handles you have obviously had by your intimate knowledge of bloggers that are not active, you may approach (or exceed) that length of time as a registered user.

Unfortunately, (well, for you) avoiding bans by registering new handles is against the terms of service here, and is likely to result in a ban of its own. Based on how you seem to know a lot more than your member since date implies, and mentioned in comment #347 "DestinJeff" (who hasn't posted in some time), it is pretty obvious that you are avoiding a ban.

Please stop trying to be something you're not, and grow up. Your childish routine of making up a new handle every few days is tiresome.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Winds are 8mph out of the SW at Roatan, Honduras.


Big broad low.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FL...

THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO FL PENINSULA. THE NAM ALSO
APPEARS COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HRS
OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SOME. BY THURS EVENING... THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES JUST THIS
FEATURE WITH NO SURFACE LOW DEPICTION OVER THE GULF BUT INTO FRI
IT DOES DEVELOP MORE OF A BROAD CIRCULATION AND MORE CONSOLIDATED
FEATURE LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT BUT TRENDING FASTER AT THE END. THE 12Z
GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SHEAR AXIS/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.


And the Florida offices are calling for a Florida strike... This is funny we have a Gomcasters and Floridacasters at the NWS
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Quoting gator23:

And in mysterious ways...


Shhh, its my day job...
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Winds are 8mph out of the SW at Roatan, Honduras.
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151 biff4ugo: Would a fish storm like Chris even be detected in the 1880s? Would sailors note the wave height and frequency to know it was even there?
I'm just trying to gage how thorough the storm record would be in and around 1887.


Shirley you're jesting. Talkin' about the main shipping route between Europe and NorthAmerica: darn near as busy as an ant trail on moving day.
In cargo ships mostly about the size of an average presentday commercial fishing trawler; often smaller, less often larger. Most of which still relied on sails at least as much as steam-engines.

Do these look like anything that any sailor could possibly miss?
Even skunk drunk and locked in the cargo hold?

With shippers, merchants, and insurers relying upon histories from accurate ship weather logs to gauge when and where to ship, to maximize the possibility of profit and minimize the risk of loss, how much premium to charge?
With captains, navigators, and sailors risking their own lives (and usually a share of the profits) upon choosing the best course based upon histories from accurate ship weather logs?

I mean these "doubts" cast upon the accuracy of Atlantic weather history are so off of anything that can be inferred from either the records of the times or from human behaviour that ya jes gotta wonder...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Lets enjoy the rain in Cayman while we have it...looks like alot of dry air and dust on the way....blah...
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...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FL...

THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO FL PENINSULA. THE NAM ALSO
APPEARS COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HRS
OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SOME. BY THURS EVENING... THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES JUST THIS
FEATURE WITH NO SURFACE LOW DEPICTION OVER THE GULF BUT INTO FRI
IT DOES DEVELOP MORE OF A BROAD CIRCULATION AND MORE CONSOLIDATED
FEATURE LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT BUT TRENDING FASTER AT THE END. THE 12Z
GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SHEAR AXIS/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


I work in many places my friend.

And in mysterious ways...
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.
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Quoting TideWaterWeather:
mostly a lurker here.. But I have to say something.. even thinking about believing a models intensity forecast, prior to the storms formation, is ridiculous..


Please elaborate.
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Quoting jeffs713:

No kidding. Looks like he found the gas pedal. I haven't seen any hard data to support it, but based on structure, 60mph wouldn't shock me.

He's definitely making a run at hurricane status. I think he has a chance, albeit a low one, of becoming a hurricane.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Imagine thousands of these little mosquitoes inside a huge tornado, sending data (Hollywood movie?) or inside a Hurricane.... (I really don't understand why this info is published, but anyhow...)

Link



Is that really just a fly? Swarms of cyborg insect drones are the future of military surveillance


By Daily Mail Reporter

PUBLISHED: 16:16 GMT, 19 June 2012 | UPDATED: 16:16 GMT, 19 June 2012


The kinds of drones making the headlines daily are the heavily armed CIA and U.S. Army vehicles which routinely strike targets in Pakistan - killing terrorists and innocents alike.

But the real high-tech story of surveillance drones is going on at a much smaller level, as tiny remote controlled vehicles based on insects are already likely being deployed.

Over recent years a range of miniature drones, or micro air vehicles (MAVs), based on the same physics used by flying insects, have been presented to the public.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-216 1647/Is-really-just-fly-Swarms-cyborg-insect-drone s-future-military-surveillance.html#ixzz1yLwvwTfH
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Quoting gator23:

FACEPALM. CBSMiami?
You work in Doral? Your name is Tampashield lol.


I work in many places my friend.
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Quoting 7544:


its got the spin and now getting more convection anyone think they might tagg this by 2pm today

Yea you can see the spin. Its about 100 miles west of Key West.

I dont think it gets tagged at 2:00PM though
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341. 7544
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Could that be JFV?

Anyways, There is tremendous uncertainty regarding this future GOM mess. But NHC has to be quick to call it when it sees it on account of proximity. So why not calling it an invest now?


its got the spin and now getting more convection anyone think they might tagg this by 2pm today
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


He works at my weather office in Doral.


FACEPALM. CBSMiami?
You work in Doral? Your name is Tampashield lol.
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mostly a lurker here.. But I have to say something.. even thinking about believing a models intensity forecast, prior to the storms formation, is ridiculous..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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