Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Not trying to start a firestorm, I'm done commenting on GW. I am just very passionate when fighting for the truth.
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When Embedding a Video, do NOT use the Image Button, paste directly in the comment box and Post.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476


Duluth flooding and Zoo animals and aquariums
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Yes NavarreMark, we should ignore the consequences of our actions. The future will take care of itself, we need not worry. So if inaction now does lead to disasters of unknown magnitude (and almost all scientists say it will) in the future; those of us pushing the Rights agenda now will have no culpability when it does happen in the future. How quaint and unaccountable. So if your not around for the suffering the world will go through because of the people, ideas, and agendas you supported, then you had nothing to do with it. If people hadn't ignored the threat of Hitler then perhaps fifty million wouldn't have had to die in WWII. GW is modern Hitler, and you sir are just another modern day Chamberlain.
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Much more intense cyclone 6 days out barreling towards the Big Bend.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think LLC3 is the main one.


and the models dont.
which is a problem
Even i thought so too, though levi influenced me to do so, but i am pulling away from that.

we will see
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Statement as of 10:38 AM EDT on June 20, 2012

Expires 10:00 PM EDT on June 20, 2012



... Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida... including all of
Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties

* until 10 PM EDT this evening

* widespread rain will continue across Southeast Florida through
this evening. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected through this evening. However, locally higher amounts
are possible where heavy rain moves continuously over any given
location. This could lead to flooding across portions of the
watch area, particularly across areas which have received
heavier rains this morning... from South Miami extending
northwest to the Sweetwater and doral area. However, localized
flooding is possible anywhere across the watch area.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do to the flooding in Duluth some of the animals from the zoo. Example:
Is that a leopard seal? They can be vicious.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do to the flooding in Duluth some of the animals from the zoo have escaped. Example:


Possibly natures way of freeing it's own kind, some things just aren't meant to be caged.

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And go figure, the only area showing a surface circulation is just south of the Yucatan Channel.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Caribbean Storm Blog Update

img src="">
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Quoting BobWallace:


"Neither side seems to bring logical evidence"

"Neither side seems to bring logical evidence"

"Neither side seems to bring logical evidence"

Wha?


i mean in the heat of the arguments

Anti-GW- "tree rings cannot be used to prove AGW"

Pro GW- "Look, we have ice samples from 2.2billion years back that prove it. And be ignorant about tree rings you troll"

Anti-GW - "Im not a troll, you are the troll, and dont you think compression of ice from millions and billions of years ago had an effect. Dont be ignorant. Science CAN BE WRONG!!!!!"

Pro-GW - " Troll, now you are on my ignore list, go back to under your denialist bridge"


and so it goes.
Both sides can have good arguments, on this blog, for whatever reason, they quite often choose not to.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
12z Euro 5 days out.

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Wow
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ummmmmm...where'd the ridge go? Lol.



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Quoting Grothar:


I am referring to the one off of the Southwest Coast of Florida, not the main on South of Cuba.


don't look at this sideways you will not know where you are

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my forecast.

I say that this disturbance hits anywhere from Brownsville, Texas eastward to Key West, Florida. Intensity will be anywhere from a disturbance to a Category 1 hurricane.


I like it when you go out on a limb! :) That really narrows it down.
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Do to the flooding in Duluth some of the animals from the zoo have escaped. Example:
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Windshield wipers are in full throttle with the models
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ummmmmm...where'd the ridge go? Lol.



It went Bye-Bye.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ummmmmm...where'd the ridge go? Lol.





Oh Wow
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i agree, i have brought up anti-GW, or at least disbelief in certain pieces of evidence before.

By the time the discussion ended, i had been questioned on if i was a troll, i believe 3 people were banned, and angry comments were flying back and forth, some not even about GW anymore.
People were arguing about governments, money, businesses, etc.

Neither side seems to bring logical evidence, the anti-GW people often speak ignorantly and irrationally, and the pro-GW people parrot in circles stating the same things the anti-GW people said they dont believe to prove GW and then the anti-GW people become trolls and idiots and people with miserable lives in their mothers basements, and the pro GW people become no better off after their not so constructive criticisms.

JB
With the Tropics active, this conversation will get you banned. AGW is alllllll about the money. And as long as it hits peoples wallets nothing will be done. I bet nothing will be done when we have to start rationing food.
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Quoting bappit:

That's south of Cuba!


I am referring to the one off of the Southwest Coast of Florida, not the main on South of Cuba.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
IMveryHO:

I think LLC3 is the main one.
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Ummmmmm...where'd the ridge go? Lol.



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Rain coming
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting...two vortices, one west of Key West and the other over the Yucatan Peninsula. Link


Is this what you are seeing?

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IMveryHO:


perhaps the unlikely should be not as likely, but i dont see the NAM beating the CMC, GFS, Euro group
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There is a possibility to get two AOI's out of this at the end of the day.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my forecast.

I say that this disturbance hits anywhere from Brownsville, Texas eastward to Key West, Florida. Intensity will be anywhere from a disturbance to a Category 1 hurricane.
Well your half right already. The "disturbance" has already hit Key West, yesterday:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my forecast.

I say that this disturbance hits anywhere from Brownsville, Texas eastward to Key West, Florida. Intensity will be anywhere from a disturbance to a Category 1 hurricane.
Dammit stop commenting before me...
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday 20 June 2012
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.01 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 93.0°F
Dewpoint: 65.8°F
Humidity: 41 %
Wind: WSW 20 gust 28 mph
Humidex: 105
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Quoting Grothar:



A large flareup off the Southeast coast of Florida in the last few frames.


That's south of Cuba!
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This would make some headlines
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A hurricane may not be to out of the realm of possibilities if the upper level pattern favors it.The warm waters and TCHP are already there to support it.It just depends on the forward speed.Right now it could be anywhere from a weak system to a cat 1 coming in on somebody.
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gee..the northeast is sweltering...............URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

...A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT SHOULD
BE THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER IN MANY PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...
DELAWARE...EASTERN SECTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND.

ON THURSDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN 2
DEGREES OF THE RECORD...IN MANY CASES...JUST SHY OF 100 DEGREES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE URBAN
CENTERS SUCH AS CENTER CITY PHILADELPHIA WILL HAVE LOWS EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OF ONLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES.

IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE AN EXTENSION OF
THE HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY OR DEFINITELY ON SATURDAY.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-210200-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120622T1000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
200 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...98 TO 104 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 95 TO NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES...AND ONLY DROPPING
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN CENTER CITY PHILADELPHIA.

* IMPACTS...THE WORST WOULD BE FELT BY THOSE WHO LIVE AND/OR WORK
IN THE URBAN AREAS. THOSE WHO ARE AT A GREATER RISK INCLUDE THE
ELDERLY... THE INFIRM AND CHILDREN AND ANYONE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...
STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM... STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND
CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK... THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$
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The Mayor of Duluth Minnesota, Don Ness, has declared a state of emergency as heavy rainfall has undermined roads, knocked out power, and devastated the city only days after the tourist town's famous Grandma's marathon. The disruption to humans is severe, with evacuations of low lying areas underway, but no fatalities reported yet. A different story plays out for the animals of the Lake Superior Zoo.

As many cages remain flooded, the toll of the rains cannot yet be known, but many of the zoo's barnyard animals have drowned, including sheep, goats and donkeys. The zoo has updated their facebook page to help keep friends of the zoo informed as the tragedy evolves:

What has happened at the zoo is extremely traumatic for our staff and animals. Our hearts are broken and we very much appreciate your kindness and compassion. It is our priority to keep you all appraised of the latest developments. We ask for your patience and continued support. We assure you we are continually working to maintain the safety and well-being of our beloved animals.



Animals that could swim did: the zoo's polar bear, named Berlin, and a seal escaped as the waters floated them above the enclosures of their zoo homes. Berlin, the polar bear, was darted with a tranquilizer and has been moved to a safe area. A seal celebrating his freedom on Duluth's Grand Avenue was caught in a phone photo by local anchorman Dan Hanger and has been making the rounds on facebook and the Duluth news outlets.
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Here's my forecast.

I say that this disturbance hits anywhere from Brownsville, Texas eastward to Key West, Florida. Intensity will be anywhere from a disturbance to a Category 1 hurricane.
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rocket fuel
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52173
Here's the total precipitable water image from CIMSS. A bit glitchy in the GOM but shows where the surge of moisture is. Chris looks kinda dry and lonely in the North Atlantic.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i agree, i have brought up anti-GW, or at least disbelief in certain pieces of evidence before.

By the time the discussion ended, i had been questioned on if i was a troll...
Neither side seems to bring logical evidence, ...


It is unfortunate that you were called to be a troll simply for asking questions about something or stating a disbelief. It's not a fair thing to do to someone when they are legitimately posting about a range of topics and simply asking a question or stating an opinion.

I do, however, have a very strong, and logically-based contention with your assertion that climate scientists, or people presenting evidence from the majority of climate scientists, "[dont] seem to bring logical evidence." Perhaps for some, but as a whole, I dont understand how someone can believe that to be true.
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Full 8 day model run, check out the spread 4-5 days out.

Some go west, some go east, southwest, northeast,....uncertainty abounds
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not all of the models are very reliable and you know what they say about long range forecasts, LOL


LOL yes. I literally laughed out loud when I saw it, but I had to post it. I do not buy it, but you cannot rule it out either.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.