Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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So who believes which model? LOL what a complete wreck.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
992mb hurricane 1 week out north of Tampa.



i think eventually by the end of the month into the first part of July we may get something pretty strong to hit
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Are you worried, man? Phillips and the Ruskin NWS office should begin to warn the EXTREMELY & UNBELIEVABLY complacent residents/citizens of Hillsborough County, FL!

Tampa's luck had to end sooner or later!
hasnt formed yet,and they are still guessing..up shields GT just in case
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and still maintaining strength

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What did Florida ever do to the ECWMF?.If that were to verify what would this blog be like?.And what would the doom level be?
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Looks like it's gonna soak the coastline as it skips on towards the northeast.

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summer solstice 709pm

let me get this straight.
Today is model doomsday:

CMC- 986mb down TX coast

ECMWF and GFS - ~995mb or less into Tampa

NAM- crazy, not too bad ,near NOLA

NOGAPS- worthless
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I just hope this High Pressure doesn't stay over Texas forever like last year. This High should keeps storms away from Majority of Texas for awhile. The center of a ridge of upper-level high pressure is in the southwest U.S. today. Forecasts show this upper high moving to Texas and parking itself here for a few days. If you have lived here for any length of time and follow the weather you have a pretty good idea of what his means for us. Number one, there will be NO rain. Number two, afternoon high temperatures will climb to 100 degrees starting as early as Saturday and continuing for many areas through at least the middle of next week.


Did you see the EURO ridge was completely gone by 3 days. Weird!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55441
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So what if I did?!

Because I posted the link a while back, check comment #438.
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Wow..the Euro aint playing..
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I just hope this High Pressure doesn't stay over Texas forever like last year. This High should keeps storms away from Majority of Texas for awhile. The center of a ridge of upper-level high pressure is in the southwest U.S. today. Forecasts show this upper high moving to Texas and parking itself here for a few days. If you have lived here for any length of time and follow the weather you have a pretty good idea of what his means for us. Number one, there will be NO rain. Number two, afternoon high temperatures will climb to 100 degrees starting as early as Saturday and continuing for many areas through at least the middle of next week.
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Dennis, you have possible incoming...

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Quoting kwgirl:
#605 messed up the blog. How about removing what you were trying to post?


He is a troll. Just flag and ignore
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that the GFS?.
ECMWF.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that the GFS?.


N, ma'am. It's the ECM!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A polar bear had also escaped from the zoo. Quite the scene.
You found that image on Reddit, didn't you? :P
So what if I did?!
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convection is building more west, shear must of relaxed some.
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619. VR46L
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It is unfortunate that you were called to be a troll simply for asking questions about something or stating a disbelief. It's not a fair thing to do to someone when they are legitimately posting about a range of topics and simply asking a question or stating an opinion.

I do, however, have a very strong, and logically-based contention with your assertion that climate scientists, or people presenting evidence from the majority of climate scientists, "[dont] seem to bring logical evidence." Perhaps for some, but as a whole, I dont understand how someone can believe that to be true.


You referred to me as a troll on Monday as I made one comment about Global warming.Which I did not appreciate one little bit.And found it quite upsetting but I suppose on here any non believers in man made climate change are considered trolls.But as far as I am aware it is called weather underground and not climate change underground and would be a place for weather enthusiasts. Used to enjoy being a lurker on this blog ...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
992mb hurricane 1 week out north of Tampa.

Is that the GFS?.
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#605 messed up the blog. How about removing what you were trying to post?
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Denis Phillips is gonna have a field day with this one, no, Teddy?

That man is HILARIOUS!!!!!!!!!!!

Let the wishcasting commence, Tampinians!
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It is a fake someone made it when Union Station flooded in Toronto, ON ... it appears on Yahoo Canada's home page news clip
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
992mb hurricane 1 week out north of Tampa.



Notice the Low back in the BOC.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
992mb hurricane 1 week out north of Tampa.



that split all the way from the 1005mb low in the western gulf?

so we have 996 and 992 i think on the gfs and ecmwf both at tampa.
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Some more images of the Duluthian Deluge. Sorry so small; I'll post larger images if I can find them.

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do to the flooding in Duluth some of the animals from the zoo have escaped. Example:

A polar bear had also escaped from the zoo. Quite the scene.
You found that image on Reddit, didn't you? :P
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It seems this years storms want to hit in areas that rarely get hit. First it was Jacksonville, now Big Bend area or Tampa area.
we will see better end of this week GT..nothing at all has formed yet, but polish and lube up that Tampa shield ok..lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
High end TS into Florida by 168 hours, similar in intensity to Beryl.


Whatever event unfolds, it will be all over by 168hrs, we got less than that for full mass confusion
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992mb hurricane 1 week out north of Tampa.

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The loop current is the reason why the GFS and ECMWF deepen it quite rapidly before landfall near Tampa.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32681
Quoting Melagoo:


Duluth flooding and Zoo animals and aquariums



I want to send my wife to that mall, lol. Sure honey, you can go shopping :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
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High end TS into Florida by 168 hours, similar in intensity to Beryl.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24545
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Much more intense cyclone 6 days out barreling towards the Big Bend.

It seems this years storms want to hit in areas that rarely get hit. First it was Jacksonville, now Big Bend area or Tampa area.
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Oh my lord to the 12Z Euro. FL maybe in for one heck of a storm!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Much more intense cyclone 6 days out barreling towards the Big Bend.

Maybe TWC will try to find that episode "it could happen tomorrow" when a cane is roll'in through Tampa.Then their gonna ban it from T.V.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Taken on NASA Parkway, with the infamous Hilton hotel in background where woman ran her husband over numerous times....



Are you some kinda nut?

Quit using my Images for your idiocy.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129318
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


It's moving east, not NORTH, bud!
Chill Janiel, I know my directions. It's moving northeastward.
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Quoting Melagoo:


Duluth flooding and Zoo animals and aquariums


that was a computer generated fake also used for a mall in dubai and in mobile
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It went Bye-Bye.


I always did like the EURO! Lol. But WOW! Is all I could say too.
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hi everybody
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585. Melagoo 6:34 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

That is scary! Is that real?
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Quoting Melagoo:


Duluth flooding and Zoo animals and aquariums


that is fake as all heck
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Quoting Melagoo:


Duluth flooding and Zoo animals and aquariums
Is that picture real.?
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996mb system heading towards Florida at 144 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24545
Not trying to start a firestorm, I'm done commenting on GW. I am just very passionate when fighting for the truth.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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