Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting hurricanejunky:

Yo Janny, your overzealous wishcasting gives you away!
Post# 666 with that picture is funny to say the least.
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Quoting Patrap:


Quick, someone send this to the RNC.

www.gopconvention2012.com


It seems Tampa has a target on it's back because of the RNC in August. I think this happen in LA during the last RNC there.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:

Yo Janny, your overzealous wishcasting gives you away!


Just happens to be comment 666....
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ECMWF is no where near as ridiculous as the GFS is with that trough, so the storm does not go extra-tropical. Instead, it strengthens into a high end Category 1 as it moves out to sea towards Bermuda.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Went northeastward through northern Florida and exited into the Atlantic through the Georgia coast before deciding to turn eastward to ravage Bermuda.


okay thanks!
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669. Articuno 6:58 PM GMT on June 20, 2012 +0
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
But this is a good sign nevertheless, as it APPEARS to be the year of Florida, thus far. First, Jacksonville was struck, and it sees as if Tampa will be the next one to get hit.

Maybe Miami will follow suit? FINGERS CROSSED!
Lol.


Then we will have a mass exodus from Miami-dade to Havanna. Oh what will Castro do?

Anyways, until there is an AOI to pinpoint modeling- all bets should be off.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane qualifies as Tampa's big one? Oh boy...

Guys, it is only one model run. We need to watch for consistency.


Again this will likely be stronger than that in reality as is almost always the case. I'm sure though you are aware of this.
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PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS BLEND

TOUGH TO DISCERN EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS A VERY SLOW
AND GRADUAL MOVEMENT WITH A SHEAR AXIS/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTH FL/YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WEST AND NORTH
INTO THE GULF. OVERALL HPC PREFERS THE DETAILS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS... ON A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PERHAPS... MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
NEAR THE WRN YUCATAN GRADUALLY DRAWING NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF ON SAT.
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Quoting ncstorm:
im confused..what happened..did it travel up the east coast and then exit or did it just exit off florida?

982mb-last frame

Went northeastward through northern Florida and exited into the Atlantic through the Georgia coast before deciding to turn eastward to ravage Bermuda.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Think I'm starting to grasp this better now looking at surface obs. AOI #1 in the keys is a separate entity and I don't believe will be a part of the bigger AOI to come. AOI #2 will be comprised of the easy to see mid-mid-level circulation over the Yucatan Peninsula and a developing Surface circulation which I pointed out just south of the Yucatan channel. The two will become the combating lows pictured in the 12Z ECMWF. The dominate low and eventual direction will be determined by whether or not a trough picks it up or not.

Any thoughts?



Yeah GFS has been showing this as well but was confused on why but you have explained that well.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
The Euro and GFS are on top of each other. This is very concerning. Tampa is due for a big one and this maybe their storm.




Quick, someone send this to the RNC.

www.gopconvention2012.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The Euro and GFS are on top of each other. This is very concerning. Tampa is due for a big one and this maybe their storm.



A strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane qualifies as Tampa's big one? Oh boy...

Guys, it is only one model run. We need to watch for consistency.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Think I'm starting to grasp this better now looking at surface obs. AOI #1 in the keys is a separate entity and I don't believe will be a part of the bigger AOI to come. AOI #2 will be comprised of the easy to see mid-mid-level circulation over the Yucatan Peninsula and a developing Surface circulation which I pointed out just south of the Yucatan channel. The two will become the combating lows pictured in the 12Z ECMWF. The dominate low and eventual direction will be determined by whether or not a trough picks it up or not.

Any thoughts?
Very plausible. Could have multiple vorticies until one becomes more established and subsequently dominant. The ECMWF pictures the surface trough north of the westernmost tip of Cuba becoming dominant in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan LLC/MLC retracts southwestward.
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im confused..what happened..did it travel up the east coast and then exit or did it just exit off florida?

982mb-last frame

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Ahhh I was wondering what happened to that guy....
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There are now 183 Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
But this is a good sign nevertheless, as it APPEARS to be the year of Florida, thus far. First, Jacksonville was struck, and it sees as if Tampa will be the next one to get hit.

Maybe Miami will follow suit? FINGERS CROSSED!

Lol.
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The Euro and GFS are on top of each other. This is very concerning. Tampa is due for a big one and this maybe their storm.


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Chris is down 1 millibar; winds remain the same.

AL, 03, 2012062018, , BEST, 0, 382N, 502W, 45, 999, TS,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
Think I'm starting to grasp this better now looking at surface obs. AOI #1 in the keys is a separate entity and I don't believe will be a part of the bigger AOI to come. AOI #2 will be comprised of the easy to see mid-mid-level circulation over the Yucatan Peninsula and a developing Surface circulation which I pointed out just south of the Yucatan channel. The two will become the combating lows pictured in the 12Z ECMWF. The dominate low and eventual direction will be determined by whether or not a trough picks it up or not.

Any thoughts?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
Magnitude 6.0 earthquake, Alaska


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 38.1N 51.3W AT 20/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 520 NM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N22W TO 16N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND
COINCIDES WITH A VERY WEAK 700-850 MB TROUGH THAT HAS PROGRESSED
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SW OF THE WAVE
AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N64W TO 18N62W MOVING W-NW AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W
AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
07N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N28W TO 06N34W TO 07N43W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N99W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W E-NE TO NEAR 23N76W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN REGION ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF
85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THESE AREAS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF A LINE
FROM 29N95W TO 21N88W...AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 27N81W TO 20N88W. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...POTENTIALLY AS A BROAD SURFACE
LOW...PROVIDING AN ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS SW
NORTH CAROLINA IS SLOWLY ERODING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS NW
AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT.



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Meanwhile, the cursed storm continues to be.. cursed.

Still, more impressive than the last storm with it's namestake.
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mission search seek find
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Kinda bummed out it doesn't take it over Miami, though! Sigh, =(.
Likewise Janiel. Kinda bummed it didn't turn into a category 6 the size of Alaska slamming into south Florida, but there's always hope right?
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
But this is a good sign nevertheless, as it APPEARS to be the year of Florida, thus far. First, Jacksonville was struck, and it sees as if Tampa will be the next one to get hit.

Maybe Miami will follow suit? FINGERS CROSSED!


Im sorry but thats funny..LOL
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that is a lot worse on the models than beryl ever was.
Look at all the yellow on 500mb heights at the surface
Beryl never came close to that.

and you can probably subtract 10-20mb from what the models show for real intensity.

We could have a solid Cat1 Hurricane, given we dont have any of those rapid intensification thingies.

That said, it is too far out to get worried, but some of these are only 4-5 days out and the 00z is supposed to be more accurate.


Beryl did have those, we commented on it as it made landfall as people thought the model was showing sub-tropical when in truth it was showing a deep system. No, this is either a high end TS or a 75mph Category 1 on the ECMWF and will change.
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Quoting ncstorm:


well this morning when the GFS was showing something similar to it they werent excited..now with the euro I think we bout to see comments every 5 seconds..we wont be able to talk to each other like now as our comments would be getting lost in the chaos..

debby will form for all those debby downers..
So this is the game Debby wants to play huh?.She wants to be a @!#&$ to us?.
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12z ECMWF...

Getting to a strong TS

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Remember please before we freak out at the possibility of a hurricane hitting Tampa - the models can and almost 100% will change. It's not even sure where it's going, the consensus is nonexistent.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
High end TS into Florida by 168 hours, similar in intensity to Beryl.


that is a lot worse on the models than beryl ever was.
Look at all the yellow on 500mb heights at the surface
Beryl never came close to that.

and you can probably subtract 10-20mb from what the models show for real intensity.

We could have a solid Cat1 Hurricane, given we dont have any of those rapid intensification thingies.

That said, it is too far out to get worried, but some of these are only 4-5 days out and the 00z is supposed to be more accurate.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
No rain here, these showers are extremely isolated and scattered, heaviest amount within 50 miles of me last 2 days is .25.


Check yo skies to yo south...
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Oh my lord to the 12Z Euro. FL maybe in for one heck of a storm!

relax man
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Doesn't even show it becoming extra-tropical as it moves over and off N-Florida.
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No rain here, these showers are extremely isolated and scattered, heaviest amount within 50 miles of me last 2 days is .25.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What did Florida ever do to the ECWMF?.If that were to verify what would this blog be like?.And what would the doom level be?


well this morning when the GFS was showing something similar to it they werent excited..now with the euro I think we bout to see comments every 5 seconds..we wont be able to talk to each other like now as our comments would be getting lost in the chaos..

debby will form for all those debby downers..
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Ignorance of the operational Guidance is not a sign of,knowing.

Once a CoC is found, the ensembles, Statistical and dynamical will trend toward consensus or a "solution".

That takes time, and a INVEST status.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127374
.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I just hope this High Pressure doesn't stay over Texas forever like last year. This High should keeps storms away from Majority of Texas for awhile. The center of a ridge of upper-level high pressure is in the southwest U.S. today. Forecasts show this upper high moving to Texas and parking itself here for a few days. If you have lived here for any length of time and follow the weather you have a pretty good idea of what his means for us. Number one, there will be NO rain. Number two, afternoon high temperatures will climb to 100 degrees starting as early as Saturday and continuing for many areas through at least the middle of next week.


TX has a weakness over it, why it's raining and got clouds over it now, plus the upper air low over NE MX isn't going anywhere fast. Ridge will have dent in it on it's south side in TX. Weakness is already entrenched and the high will have to build around it.

Check yo skies to yo south...
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So who believes which model? LOL what a complete wreck.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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