Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
They are still trying to pinpoint the real low to then tag it as 96L IMO.


Hey Tropics...what's the weather like in your neck of the woods?
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Sometime a change of Blog tempo is needed, post idiocy.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Why did my comment count reset? Not that it matters, but strange..
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Just happens to be comment 666....


I know...I planned it that way but admins derailed the whole thing...LOL
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thanks for the anecdote (err.. history lesson) Patrap.. made me smile :)
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Quoting Patrap:
Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. in the War of 1812, 26 Hours after seizing the White House?

A Tornado struck and they high tailed outta D.C. as it was a Omen they feared.
Ding ding ding.You earn yourself a cookie.
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They are still trying to pinpoint the real low to then tag it as 96L IMO.

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Growing stronger still:

AL, 03, 2012062018, , BEST, 0, 382N, 502W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 140, 220, 60
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Quoting Patrap:
Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. in the War of 1812, 26 Hours after seizing the White House?

A Tornado struck and they high tailed outta D.C. as it was a Omen they feared.


I bet they were scared out of their minds lol. Not that anyone in a tornado today would not be, but they probably never even heard of something like that.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so that is where the shower curtain came from!!!!


Yeah and I didn't even realize it was post #666 which is probably the reason it got removed. Everyone here LOVES that pic...party poopers...
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The blog is messed up for me and I have closed and reopened my browser. Very skinny and it will not let me plus, minus, or report...language could be cleaned up for the young folks and others that might be offended.
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Quoting Patrap:


Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. 26 Hours after seizing the White House?


I did not, but just looked it up. A twister in DC, eh? The Brits must've really peeved off Ma' Nature with those fires...
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Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. in the War of 1812, 26 Hours after seizing the White House?

A Tornado struck and they high tailed outta D.C. as it was a Omen they feared.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
718. Hey scott! Great to have you aboard this season, and I agree with your analysis.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23920
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Can't we all get along? Anyway, I am Activating the TAMPA SHIELD to keep this storm away from Tampa and hence keep the GFS/ECMWF from verifying.


Where in TPA are you?
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Someone tell 2k to calm down sounds like its going to happen gots plenty to watch this...btw cmc says otherwise
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just a few more Duluth pictures:

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth
i am in utter awe viewing these.. this is beyond anything i could have imagined this morning.
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Thanks for the PM's guys I recieved since yesterday on where I think this is going. I thought I post it here instead of giving back 12 PM's I got.
I said yesterday that I think this will come into the GOM and be a broad circulation later this week then over the weekend a more defined low will take shape in the eastern GOM closer to most of the convection and be the dominant low. This will be cause the current LLC that will form in the next 24-36 hours will be weak but vast in circulation around 1007-1009mbs over the S-Central GOM. The Midlevel center further NE will form a more defined LLC west of Tampa around 26-27N and 86-88W and slowly get pulled E or ENE. This is all depending on the strength of the trough coming down early next week. This is still 4-5 days out (Mon-Tues) I think the EURO and the GFS are correct but alittle slower than what will happen. Also the GFS to a lesser extent the EURO always under does the strength of a system. If the GFS has a 1000mb low.. it's generally about 4mbs lower.
If this does in the near term get west of 88W then it could meander alittle longer than 5 days due to it having to wait maybe till the next trough comes down later next week or even weekend. If in the near term this gets west of 90W then it could feel more of the ridge and move more W and even SW towards MX by early-middle of next week. So this depends in the near term how far west it gets and then the difference in strength of the trough coming down and tearing down the mid-continental ridge over Oklahoma.
So in final.. I see this trough going into the C GOM becoming a broad circulation later Thurs into Friday with a LLC becoming more dominant later Saturday into Sunday and probably becoming a TS late Saturday or Sunday. I expect the trough to be enough as of right now to push this NE then ENE towards FL.. anywhere from near PanamaCity-Tampa Bay by Monday into Monday night. It's too early to tell if this will be a 50mph TS or a 90mph hurricane..depending on the shear to its N or over the system. Will know that by Sat or Sun...but in all I think the models.especially the GFS is alittle conservative on the strength at this time. Things can change though.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47889559/ns/weather/

Duluth has had all farmyard animals drown except one. Polar Bear did get temporarily lose, but still on grounds. Was put back up. Flooding is horrible.
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Quoting Patrap:


No, Gustav was approaching Se. Louisiana and the RNC cancelled a Day of Events.

By Julia Hoppock
Aug 30, 2008 4:08pm
McCain: Hurricane Gustav May Suspend RNC





Kinda reminisce in a way, of the British Taking the White House during the War of 1812.



Anyone here know why the British fled D.C 26 Hours after seizing the White House?


It has been 200 years since the war.
history.com has a link about some trivial facts from the war.

And i believe they left to fight a battle because they heard more troops were coming, but i havent studied the war of 1812 in some time
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Current Temperature for Green Haven MD area:
96.3 F
Feels Like 109 F

Humidity
51%


Just awful out.

Did I mention its just the first day of summer and we are getting this kind of heat? Great start to the sweltering summer.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Think I'm starting to grasp this better now looking at surface obs. AOI #1 in the keys is a separate entity and I don't believe will be a part of the bigger AOI to come. AOI #2 will be comprised of the easy to see mid-mid-level circulation over the Yucatan Peninsula and a developing Surface circulation which I pointed out just south of the Yucatan channel. The two will become the combating lows pictured in the 12Z ECMWF. The dominate low and eventual direction will be determined by whether or not a trough picks it up or not.

Any thoughts?


I think it doesnt matter it will still be picked up by the trough
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It seems Tampa has a target on it's back because of the RNC in August. I think this happen in LA during the last RNC there.


No, Gustav was approaching Se. Louisiana and the RNC cancelled a Day of Events.

By Julia Hoppock
Aug 30, 2008 4:08pm
McCain: Hurricane Gustav May Suspend RNC





Kinda reminisce in a way, of the British Taking the White House during the War of 1812.



Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. in the War of 1812, 26 Hours after seizing the White House?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Can't we all get along? Anyway, I am Activating the TAMPA SHIELD to keep this storm away from Tampa and hence keep the GFS/ECMWF from verifying.


no, trolls and bloggers are incompatible species.
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Can't we all get along? Anyway, I am Activating the TAMPA SHIELD to keep this storm away from Tampa and hence keep the GFS/ECMWF from verifying.
,,lol, good job!!
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LLC on Vis


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Quoting Patrap:
Lordy, some skulls just ain't Wired right.

How class-less.


I agree Patrap
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Good afternoon everyone!

Daily SOI: -11.3
30 Day SOI: -8.4
90 Day SOI: -4.8
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just a few more Duluth pictures:

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth


Wow!
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And here comes the action...
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Lordy, some skulls just ain't Wired right.

How class-less.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Chris, looking good, surprise hurricane??
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUN 2012 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 38:10:13 N Lon : 50:14:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 994.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 3.0 3.1

Center Temp : -7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -34.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 38:46:12 N Lon: 49:25:48 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 51.2 degrees
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
the ECMWF is stronger because it starts more westward and goes over the loop current area.

Could one low help another intensify?

or even merge together?

Im pretty sure lows close together usually kill each other.
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Watch your language, post # 691.
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We should have 96L today based on all of these models blowing up a storm in the gulf in just 3 to 4 days from now.

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Just a few more Duluth pictures:

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth

Duluth
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IF it is Tampa's year, then it will hit the week of August 27, during the RNC.
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Quoting Patrap:
There are now 183 Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.


163 days till the end of the 2012 hurricane season

this is all just been a warm up
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Quoting hurricanejunky:

Yo Janny, your overzealous wishcasting gives you away!
Post# 666 with that picture is funny to say the least.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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