Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The highlighted part just for you Georgia. ;)

FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE GAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THE MEDIUM RANGE
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER. A GREAT AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD STILL EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.






whoa!!! huge adjustment..look out tampa!!!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Mine has been acting up all day.


As well as mine. Perhaps all these trolls are screwing it up
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For all us West gulf coasters hoping for some rain and a little wind I think its over fellas....The Floridians have taken over the fort and the models...The season is still young my friends...lol
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
I think I was mistaken for a troll. my comment count reset and the blog was not showing me for a second.. has that happened to anyone else?


Mine has been acting up all day.
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This kind of bickering isn't what the blog was intended for...

Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering
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that mess south of Cuba looks to be getting better organized .....maybe 30%(code orange) at 8 pm?
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The highlighted part just for you Georgia. ;)

FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE GAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THE MEDIUM RANGE
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER. A GREAT AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD STILL EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.




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I think I was mistaken for a troll. my comment count reset and the blog was not showing me for a second.. has that happened to anyone else?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Why is stormtop so famous?.


because of his Katrina prowess and subsequent mental meltdowns...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Trolls everywhere...
almost in every hurricane or website I visit I find you.:) lol.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
assuming the area west of Fl keys is developing, is this the feature models are taking NW then abruptly turn eastward?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Why is stormtop so famous?.


because he got Katrina right..
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Just sit back and watch WU blog drama; and the occasional JFV picture.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Anybody have any indications as to how strong this High pressure that is supposed to be coming into Texas will be? It doesn't appear it is there with all of the scattered showers..


It'll be in the plains and parts of TX, but I think it will be weak on it's southern edge in TX.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
What is going on??? Who started the flame war? Leave the blog to eat lunch and come back to this mess.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Growing stronger still:

AL, 03, 2012062018, , BEST, 0, 382N, 502W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 140, 220, 60
Really want to achieve hurricane status but I doubt it will happen.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Trolls everywhere...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Why is stormtop so famous?.
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Anybody have any indications as to how strong this High pressure that is supposed to be coming into Texas will be? It doesn't appear it is there with all of the scattered showers..
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hey guys I see three circulations #1 WSW of Grand Cayman #2 just W of the Fl keys #3 over the yucatan
the strongest circulation being W of Fl key
second one WSW of GCM and the weakest one over the yucatan #1 and #3 has convection #2 is naked

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Could Chris become a hurricane?.No..would be something if it did though...
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Quoting Patrap:


Server burp, some issues seems from all the minus's


That plus is on the left side, gotta be steady with the mouse trigger or you might hit the wrong one....
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Articuno:

Yeah...

Oh well, the post got deleted because I reported it for bad language..


That's the BEST way to control problems here, to not engage them, and hit those buttons.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOODING: A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIAMI-DADE,
BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAIN MOVES CONTINUOUSLY OVER ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS RAIN GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH.

RIP CURRENTS: STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR HIGH WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormChris for 20June6pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from East at 21.9mph(35.2km/h) to East at 19.1mph(30.7km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 50knots(58mph)93km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 1000millibars to 997millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Chris's path...
YYT is SaintJohns,Newfoundland :: CVU is Corvo,Azores :: SMA is SantaMaria,Azores

The Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris
The Westernmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Chris's most recent position.

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Chris's 2 most recent positions to a point due south of SantaMaria's southernmost shore.
On 20June6pmGMT, TS.Chris was headed toward passage ~33miles(54kilometres) south of SantaMariaIsland in ~2days23hours from now

Copy&paste yyt, cvu, sma, 39.5n58.0w-38.9n56.7w, 38.9n56.7w-38.3n54.7w, 38.3n54.7w-38.1n52.3w, 38.1n52.3w-38.2n50.2w, 38.1n52.3w-36.44n25.0178w, 36.928n25.0178w-36.44n25.0178w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Been my experience, that those who root for calamity have never experienced it wholesale.


And also, those who root for it, are the first to fall apart after the Storm passes and the real work begins.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Patrap:


Server burp, some issues seems from all the minus's

Yeah...

Oh well, the post got deleted because I reported it for bad language..

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This is only a hunch on my part, but we will see some of the strangest weather ever witnessed in the next ten days right here in the good ole U.S of A.
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752. xcool
brb
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Also, when one mentions that a storm strikes during RNC/DNC conventions this shows a very serious lack of compassion. Hurricanes do a lot of damage, and I cannot understand why someone would wish a hurricane on people just because of their political preferences. It would be a good idea to search youtube for post-Katrina damage to see just how destructive these systems can be. How someone could wish that on another due to political orientation is unimaginable to me.


Wasn't wishing by any means, just being cynical as usual. Guess my sarcasm didn't translate. I live in Tampa, and work downtown where the RNC will be. And I'm a republican. Wow. I did say "IF" (first word in caps).
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Quoting Articuno:
pat y u plus the troll?


Server burp, some issues seems from all the minus's
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
pat y u plus the troll?
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746. xcool
'Ladies and gentlemen,but every run will change plus As always, timing timing Lots of uncertainty that far out
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Thank you scottsvb for that very informative analysis.




I'm in northeast St. Petersburg close to Tampa Bay in one of those areas with canals in the back yard.


Im in NE st pete near gandy and 4th street, I live 2 feet above the bay. I'm looking at salt water as I type.

Not to get off the topic of the purpose of the forums, but I have been on here since 2007 and it never fails each year it frustrates me at the lack of understanding or just basic respect for others on here. To have a tropical storm hit Tampa Bay means my life is completly ruined no questions asked!. Becuase the economy is so poor sadley I can't afford flood insurance right now, I would have nothing but the clothes on my back, everything that I have worked hard for since I was a teen would be gone and would be destroyed and to be honest it scares me to death.

People that joke about storms hitting cities, or states or the RNC and laugh about it, well now the joke is on you and I'm not laughing.
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There was no tornado, in Wash. DC. in 1812, the Brits just burned it down. The new or reconstructed White House took 5 years to reopen.
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60mph for Chris at 5p.m.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
They are still trying to pinpoint the real low to then tag it as 96L IMO.


Hey Tropics...what's the weather like in your neck of the woods?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.