Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting pensacolastorm:
I saw on another blog that the HH are scheduled to investigate the Gulf disturbance on Thursday.

Friday
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Quoting washingaway:


Which one should we invest in? Yucatan?


If I could answer that I wouldnt be here.

: )

Dunno, Im favoring the Yucatan or a Blend, but the recon Folks have it at 24N 89.W so thats Mid Gulf in 24.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Central Dense Overcast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32707
Hello!,just a question to the experts,I'm just a 55 year old amateur wannabe Met
.What we can expect here in Miami in the next few days?,more rain??,our local Met's were talking about 5-10" of rain for several days?,how close to South Florida do you think that HUGE blob below western Cuba will get??,today it rain a lot in the morning but nothing in the afternoon?,weather is so dificult to predict.Thank you!!!
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The RECON Aircraft Info is found on the LEFT side of the NHC Home Page

Tools & Data
Satellite | Radar
Analysis Tools
Aircraft Recon


Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Patrap:
A INVEST can be declared at anytime and will most likely


Which one should we invest in? Yucatan?
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Quoting pensacolastorm:
I saw on another blog that the HH are scheduled to investigate the Gulf disturbance on Thursday.
I think they would have posted it by now if they where going to fly tomorrow. Would be cool if your right.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir4.htm l
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2 days with a 50 percent chance of rain and I received nothing, no rain here since May 15th, So yes I am hoping a tropical system comes thru south texas and moves this way. Hoping and Wishing is all you can do when you are in a drought like I am. It will take either a Tropical system or El Nino coming later this year to get me out of a drought situation that much is obvious.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


And that implys what?
That the ridge is has has been eroded by the trof.
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Quoting hydrus:
The GFS has Florida gettin soaked.
..its funny how all our local mets keep saying roughly 50/60 percent rain chances, but if it keeps on this..on and off again rain..thats good, we can use the water its dropping on us,not even enough to cause even minor flooding so far here, maybe it is though in south florida
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I saw on another blog that the HH are scheduled to investigate the Gulf disturbance on Thursday.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


We definitely need one, Pat. Seems like it could help us out, model-wise.


Im in with yas, dont know what the Hold up is, as this has a lot mo Impact potential than a,er, Ship Lanes Spinner in 74 F Water.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting kwgirl:
The mosquitos?


The Tornado

The Tornado and the Burning of
Washington, August 25, 1814
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Neapolitan:
June, which has been relatively mild thus far--that is, compared to the rest of 2012 so far--looks to go out with the heaters cranked to 11:

hot

hot


So the red bulls eye has gone from NE Colorado to Arkansas....more model failure.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting Patrap:
A INVEST can be declared at anytime and will most likely


We definitely need one, Pat. Seems like it could help us out, model-wise.
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Quoting Patrap:
A INVEST can be declared at anytime and will most likely



Its getting better organised
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The GFS has Florida gettin soaked.
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


I never knew that... What is a CDO?


CDO = Central Dense Overcast, a solid mass of intense thunderstorms found over the center of strong tropical storms and hurricanes.
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A INVEST can be declared at anytime and will most likely
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
If you look at the current vis loops, there appears to be some rotation coming off of the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula heading into the Gulf; this would be generally consistent with the latest CMC run. It could be the winner in terms of the dominant low issue we have been discussing all day (to my eyes anyway).
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Quoting Patrap:


No, Gustav was approaching Se. Louisiana and the RNC cancelled a Day of Events.

By Julia Hoppock
Aug 30, 2008 4:08pm
McCain: Hurricane Gustav May Suspend RNC





Kinda reminisce in a way, of the British Taking the White House during the War of 1812.



Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. in the War of 1812, 26 Hours after seizing the White House?
The mosquitos?
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
I really hope the NHC declares this an invest soon so we can get a better idea as to what is going to happen. I am going to Lake Charles Sunday and I really would like the models to come to a better consensus as to what will likely happen


I wouldn't be surprised if its an invest at 8:00 pm
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Quoting MississippiWx:


FWIW, Levi, I'm still in your camp. We can go down together if it doesn't happen.


I appreciate that lol. This kind of a tough forecast situation is the reason I love the weather so much. For all of our numerical prowess, it can still make us scratch our heads hard, even when a system is only a couple of days away from a fork in the road.
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June, which has been relatively mild thus far--that is, compared to the rest of 2012 so far--looks to go out with the heaters cranked to 11:

hot

hot
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I really hope the NHC declares this an invest soon so we can get a better idea as to what is going to happen. I am going to Lake Charles Sunday and I really would like the models to come to a better consensus as to what will likely happen
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Hey, I'm having a strange issue with the blog right now. Every time I refresh it sends me to an error page, so I will be in tropics chat if anyone wants to discuss or ask questions until this is fixed.
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Quoting hydrus:
10 footers for Tampa on the 25.?


thats not good at all..two words.."Tampa Bay"..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
Quoting washingtonian115:
It went Bye-Bye.


And that implys what?
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I just found on wikipedia that the 1932 Cuba hurricane was a category 5, when was that decided? can someone confirm this?
I think the NHC change the intensity when they were revising that year.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I just found on wikipedia that the 1932 Cuba hurricane was a category 5, when was that decided? can someone confirm this?

It was upgraded in the NHC's reanalysis project after several ships recorded pressures below 920 millibars and wind speed estimates from 200-210 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32707
Quoting hydrus:
10 footers for Tampa on the 25.?
now That's interesting..wonder if it will come true
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Latest CMC has a hurricane skirting the entire western half of the northern gulf coast..
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ok. Now I'm really confuzzled. To me it looked like the EURO lost the ridge. But hey what do I know. And subtropical huh???? Lol.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH A WAVE FROM CARIBBEAN IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, DYNAMIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH
OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS BUILDING FROM THE EAST INTO OUR REGION AND
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE OR SLIGHT BELOW AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE, NEGATING
OUR TYPICAL MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TNITE AS
DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY FALLING BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY THE EURO WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BROAD SCALE WAVE BRINGS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ON THE
PEREPHERY WHERE OUR AREA RESIDES SO WENT WITH HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRIDAY...OUR HOTTEST DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND HELPING TO PROVIDE A BARRIER TO ANY NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE GULF LOW. THE EURO RESPECTS THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE OUR COASTAL WATERS, EVENTUALLY TRANSITING THE
LOW TO THE EASTERN GULF. PER LATEST NCEP COORIDINATION, THIS COULD
EVOLVE FURTHER INTO A SUBTROPICAL TYPE LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO HEAD
EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

SWEENEY




Because the reports are 12 hrs behind regardless of the time issued.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
I see the same old troll wants a storm to destroy his home! Pfft WOW!!!this is too lobg out lol
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Quoting Levi32:


That the system gets into the northwest gulf and makes landfall in Texas or northern Mexico.


FWIW, Levi, I'm still in your camp. We can go down together if it doesn't happen.
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i see we are a warm neutral right now. how many months does the 3.4 region have to be at 0.5 C or more to be designated a full el nino
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843. VR46L
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Not quite accurate. In fact, I would suggest you reread what I said. The things you were spouting were so nonsensical, so unsubstantiated, so easily correctable at a basic science level that it is an apples and oranges comparison to the current situation. And if you remember correctly, I said there were a number of reasons for this which included you just not know what you were talking about. You seem to have made the choice yourself for which one it was.


I resent that you call me a troll at least I have posted occasionally on weather on a weather forum. Yes I recalled the other reasons that I could be so misinformed .. I know of PHDS that would have similar opinions to me . I saw it as a day to rejoice that parts of the world which had been in drought were now out of it and wondered how the climate change lobby would deal with it ...unfortunatly I used hunor to illustrate my joy forgetting humor was not allowed here..
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Quoting Levi32:


That the system gets into the northwest gulf and makes landfall in Texas or northern Mexico.

Gotcha
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Quoting Levi32:


The fact that it takes so long for the storm to turn around and go back to Florida shows how unstable this forecasting situation is, but I find the intensity most interesting. It almost looks subtropical, with the model intensifying the storm to 992mb underneath the eastern side of an upper low. In fact it looks very sheared throughout the intensification period. The Euro has been known to overdo the intensity of northeastward-moving entities in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic.


Yeah! Thank you. Now I understand the subtropical comment. :)
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837. Not sure, but I don't think I'm crazy enough for this party. Hasta manana.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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