Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting icmoore:
Hey Largo or any people from Pinellis County while I was looking online because some showed the "possible" 10 ft waves in Tampa I found this link with lots of interesting things including this.
Maximum Threat: The worst case scenario for Pinellas County is a Category 5 Hurricane heading northeast at less than 15 miles per hour that makes landfall at high tide near New Port Richey. A 24 foot storm surge would inundate almost half of the County while the winds would destroy hundreds if not thousands of homes and cause damage to thousands more.
There are a lot of interesting facts about evacuation, etc. I don't want a storm or to be evacuated because as someone said earlier it disrupts your whole life....

Link


You won't need to worry about a major cane here. It's June, plus shear is going to stay high enough over the next week where it probably won't be more than a TS. The rain is going to be the news from this one.... unless it's all 'fish' rain.
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I'll tell you what. If Levi says it's heading for Texas (western gulf), I'm not going to take that with a grain of salt. I'm thinking of going back over my hurricane prep plans. Thanks for the heads up Levi ;p



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6 day.
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Quoting Patrap:


The Tornado

The Tornado and the Burning of
Washington, August 25, 1814
Thanks Pat. Real interesting. I was going on memory and God knows it isn't too good, but I thought it could have been the local denizens. LOL
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Quoting Tygor:
My prediction is that two storms form at opposite end of the gulf and create a Fujiwhara effect across the gulf and circling around Florida and the Caribbean endlessly, thus giving the blog something to go crazy about forever.


I think I remember "Fujiwhara" in some older model runs?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't understand why this hasn't been declared an invest.

I'm on the Florida-train now by the way. Doesn't look like this will head into Texas or Louisiana anymore.



I don't think it will either, it doesn't seem very consistent with current trends, our little developing low in the southern gulf is drifting in a more northerly direction already.
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Quoting nigel20:
...CHRIS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...
5:00 PM AST Wed Jun 20
Location: 38.5°N 49.0°W
Moving: E at 21 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


Just as I suspected. Think it may have been a little stronger between 11 and 5. This could be reviewable in the post-season analysis.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting MississippiWx:


FWIW, Levi, I'm still in your camp. We can go down together if it doesn't happen.

im with yall too
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
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*Cough* JFV *Cough*
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
...CHRIS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...
5:00 PM AST Wed Jun 20
Location: 38.5°N 49.0°W
Moving: E at 21 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Quoting MississippiWx:


We definitely need one, Pat. Seems like it could help us out, model-wise.
I think that's why they are not numbering it....they are scared to see the outcome. They could just make the cone from mexico to key west and be safe.

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Quoting pensacolastorm:


Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W




oops i meant tomorrow lol :P
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Quoting stillwaiting:
closed LLC apparent on visible sat loops,with most convection on the east side,its about 100miles west of KW,small but you can see the inverted surface trough has closed off,still to much sheer for anything but slow organization,I expect a large flare up of convection overnight for south FL as well
Yes and then this LLC absorbs the circulation down by the Yucatan Peninsula and it moves away from FL. where steering currents become weak in the Central Gulf. Then it waits for a trough to swing down from the Midwest into the Southeast and pulls it towards the Northeast. This is going by what the GFS and ECMWF is showing and just my thinking.
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Quoting AllStar17:




Thank You......I do not know how the post the charts with circles.............Nice Work..... :)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Margaritaville.
I love that restaurant...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
Hey Largo or any people from Pinellis County while I was looking online because some one showed the "possible" 10 ft waves in Tampa I found this link with lots of interesting things including this.
"Maximum Threat: The worst case scenario for Pinellas County is a Category 5 Hurricane heading northeast at less than 15 miles per hour that makes landfall at high tide near New Port Richey. A 24 foot storm surge would inundate almost half of the County while the winds would destroy hundreds if not thousands of homes and cause damage to thousands more."
There are a lot of interesting facts about evacuation, etc. I don't want a storm or to be evacuated because as someone said earlier it disrupts your whole life....

Link
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Yeah, we need an invest deceleration, immediately!


what's an 'invest deceleration'? Didn't even know it accelerated yet.
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5.Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.


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WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


I'm still sticking with Matagorda Bay.

Anywhere but Matagorda I have a bay house there.
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Hi all, anyone have the shear and water temp forecasts for the Gulf over the next week?
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917. Tygor
My prediction is that two storms form at opposite end of the gulf and create a Fujiwhara effect across the gulf and circling around Florida and the Caribbean endlessly, thus giving the blog something to go crazy about forever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
042

NOUS42 KNHC 201245

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST

AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W
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Link...his model has west central Florida being hit.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There are two low-level centers in the image below: one to the northwest of the western tip of Cuba and one on the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the models, as the one closest to Florida slowly moves towards the west, the energy associated with the one on the Yucatan is supposed to become absorbed. The ECMWF and GFS show further development after that time.



Is the circulation near the Yucatan weaker than the other near the Keys?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting tropicfreak:


Margaritaville.

O_o I just saw an advertisement for that just a few minutes ago.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2302
Quoting Patrap:



Obviously you havent read the TOS nor Community Standards.

Rules of the Road

1.Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.

2.Threats, intimidation, especially that which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.

3.Foul language is not allowed.

4.Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.

5.Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.

6.No spam.

WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.

Crap is not a bad word?
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2302
Quoting FloatingCity:
Why isn't the Admin banning all the c#$% thats on here....this is a weather blog right?



Obviously you havent read the TOS nor Community Standards.

Rules of the Road

1.Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.

2.Threats, intimidation, especially that which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.

3.Foul language is not allowed.

4.Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.

5.Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.

6.No spam.

WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
709 Patrap: Anyone here know why the British fled D.C. in the War of 1812, 26 Hours after seizing the White House?

Cuz DC was at best a malaria mosquito infested swamp. Ifn the Canadians had wanted malaria, they wouldna lived so far north.
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


That's where you see them, AllStar?


I see some rotation in both areas, yes. Now I have no idea much beyond that....like which one will become dominant or develop, etc. Rotation to the north of Cuba seems more pronounced, though.
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There are two low-level centers in the image below: one to the northwest of the western tip of Cuba and one on the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the models, as the one closest to Florida slowly moves towards the west, the energy associated with the one on the Yucatan is supposed to become absorbed. The ECMWF and GFS show further development after that time.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31547
Quoting stillwaiting:
closed LLC apparent on visible sat loops,with most convection on the east side,its about 100miles west of KW,small but you can see the inverted surface trough has closed off,still to much sheer for anything but slow organization,I expect a large flare up of convection overnight for south FL as well


I don't agree with that. The system will be moving westward over the Central Gulf, away from Florida...
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 297
AOI/XX/XXL

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Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
realistically does this thing have a shot at Texas or Louisiana?


Margaritaville.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
closed LLC apparent on visible sat loops,with most convection on the east side,its about 100miles west of KW,small but you can see the inverted surface trough has closed off,still to much sheer for anything but slow organization,I expect a large flare up of convection overnight for south FL as well
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Friday


Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W



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Quoting Patrap:


If I could answer that I wouldnt be here.

: )

Dunno, Im favoring the Yucatan or a Blend, but the recon Folks have it at 24N 89.W so thats Mid Gulf in 24.


Makes you wonder if the broad swirl over in the E Central Gulf is the one that is going to be at 24N 89W
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Why isn't the Admin banning all the crap thats on here....this is a weather blog right?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
There is also a little "mini-swirl" right around 20N-94W (weird) but the bigger rotation is around 91W-21N.

Link


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201505Z JUN 12
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/JUN
OVLY/ATL STORM 03L/201200Z5/JUN/1OF1/TROP STORM CHRIS(03L)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/380600N7/0521800W6/S
TEXT/12//G/403000N7/0431800W6/S
TEXT/12//G/450000N9/0431200W0/S
TEXT/12//G/430000N7/0453000W2/D
LINE/4//G/380600N7/0521800W6/403000N7/0431800W6/4 50000N9/0431200W0
/430000N7/0453000W2
ARC/0/G///380600N7/0521800W6/080NM/080NM
ARC/0/G///403000N7/0431800W6/120NM/120NM
ARC/0/G///450000N9/0431200W0/170NM/170NM
TEXT/12//G/360600N5/0494800W5/TROP STORM CHRIS
TEXT/12//G/350600N4/0494800W5/20 JUN 1200Z
TEXT/12//G/340600N3/0494800W5/MAX 45 KT
TEXT/12//G/330600N2/0494800W5/090 AT 19 KT
TEXT/12//G/320600N1/0494800W5/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/310600N0/0544800W1/2200Z COMMENT:
TEXT/12//G/300600N9/0544800W1/EXTRATROPICAL
TEXT/12//G/403000N7/0391800W1/2112Z MAX 45
TEXT/12//G/450000N9/0391200W5/2212Z MAX 40
TEXT/12//G/460000N0/0413000W8/2312Z MAX 30
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

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The Shear aloft and dry air is easy to see, like a wall in the Eastern GOM




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Back later this evening.
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Lil vort swirl in the southern BOC, way down there, just a spin off from storms I assume.
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There is also a little "mini-swirl" right around 20N-94W (weird) but the bigger rotation is around 91W-21N.

Link
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well i guess it will be soon time for 96l

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accuweather.com says El Ninio isn't expected to develop until after the peak of the hurricane season so we could be in for a very busy year....it's already been a busy year
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Quoting pensacolastorm:
I saw on another blog that the HH are scheduled to investigate the Gulf disturbance on Thursday.

Friday
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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