Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1089 - 1039

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

1089. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where have we heard that before?


It's like a broken record or groundhog day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting AllStar17:
If I were tagging this, I would mark the center here:

Good Call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Yup. If the "Cuba" swirl becomes the dominant one, it will cross over or near the warmer temps/eddy in the Gulf.........If the "Yucatan" swirl wins the race, a little cooler temps to cross. The sheer levels is the x-factor all the way around. All this talk about swirls, around the 5:00 PM hour, has got me thinking about swirling an olive in a dry martini for Happy Hour.

See Yall in the Morning.


You have the right idea, I just pop the top on a cold coors light! Enjoy! :)
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
1083. Patrap
NOLA/Slidell NWS disco

Long term...
the has not been much change to the forecast other than to
increase the winds in the coastal waters. Easterly flow should
continue and gradually turn towards the north by Sunday. So we
plan to extend to extend the coastal Flood Advisory through
Friday night. Otherwise...the weather should be mostly dry with
the best chance of showers mainly along and east of the
Mississippi River through Saturday. After that it will be hot and
dry for the rest of the week. We will continue to monitor any
potential developments in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now nothing
has formed. In the short term our weather will be controlled by
the upper level ridge over the eastern U.S through the weekend.
This will be replaced by an unusually strong upper level trough
which will dive south from Canada through the eastern U.S. Early
next week. Both of these steering currents should keep any
possible tropical disturbance away from the north central Gulf
Coast area. See the marine section below for further details.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
If I were tagging this, I would mark the center here:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1080. rxse7en
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Thank you! You da man, I'm just visiting. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the swirl down in the BOC would have been something to watch if the 40kts shear didn't cut the tops of those clouds off. It blew up pretty nice earlier and was sliced completely off. When is this shear supposed to subside?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ugh this is making me nuts.. (following Rain) give me a llc lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1.95" today, lets see if we add to this total in Lake Worth, FL over the next few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile, Chris is trying to become a hurricane...

I am dying to read what Bastardi is thinking of Chris right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm...this might go more west...
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Yup. If the "Cuba" swirl becomes the dominant one, it will cross over or near the warmer temps/eddy in the Gulf.........If the "Yucatan" swirl wins the race, a little cooler temps to cross. The sheer levels is the x-factor all the way around. All this talk about swirls, around the 5:00 PM hour, has got me thinking about swirling an olive in a dry martini for Happy Hour.

See Yall in the Morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


These lows you are seeing are just spin-offs from a main, very broad low.


Emily last year did that.

Whoops! Sorry for merely mentioning her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1072. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
no invest
cause we can't tag anything as a centre
been tring all day this is a mess
and its anyones guess as to where it all comes together
still holding at 25 85 or there abouts for a tag
but who knows shear is not helping much
but then again maybe its better that its not
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1071. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Advisory Statement as of 3:34 PM CDT on June 20, 2012

... Coastal Flood Advisory now in effect until 7 am CDT Saturday... * coastal flooding... minor coastal flooding of less than one foot expected. * Timing... flooding will occur during each high tide cycle. Highest tides will occur in the afternoon hours. * Impacts... minor overwash of low lying roadways in the immediate vicinity of the coast. Flooding will be less than one foot. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..



Uhhh wow I think that may be an eye lol. Not just a dry air pocket. The convection surrounding the "eye" checks out. If it starts getting some higher cloud tops then I say 100% hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile, Chris is trying to become a hurricane...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
my vortice is bigger than your vortice nanner nanner nanner......lol


HEY HEY now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..





Hurricane Chris potentially?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I can now say for sure we have three (3) distinct low level spins one around 24.4N 84.5W movement W another around 20N 90W movement N and the last one is more like formimg somewhere between Roatan Honduras and Grand Cayman movement off to the N-NNE


These lows you are seeing are just spin-offs from a main, very broad low.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..




An eye is forming?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

100-110 F.

The thing is,
dry heat > humid heat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting..



Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There are two low-level centers in the image below: one to the northwest of the western tip of Cuba and one on the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the models, as the one closest to Florida slowly moves towards the west, the energy associated with the one on the Yucatan is supposed to become absorbed. The ECMWF and GFS show further development after that time.

my vortice is bigger than your vortice nanner nanner nanner......lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
1061. Patrap
The formula is roughly, for every 1F increase in Global temps, there is 10% increase in Water Vapor.

More fuel for Chaos, as the atmosphere trends toward it always in time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1060. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
MST THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 111 TO 113 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES THIS HOT WILL MAKE WORKING AND
RECREATING OUTDOORS CONSIDERABLY MORE DIFFICULT. HEAT STROKE
WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR THOSE ENGAGING IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. THE HEAT CAN CAUSE UNDUE HEALTH DIFFICULTIES TO
THE ELDERLY AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM
IF POSSIBLE...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To further add to my previous comment, here are the current dewpoints. Hot and humid in the East, and just hot and dry in the west.



Tied the record high here (98) in Central VA.... feels absolutely miserable! A few areas in southern VA hit 100.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Margaritaville.
lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
1057. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
To further add to my previous comment, here are the current dewpoints. Hot and humid in the East, and just hot and dry in the west.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1054. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

100-110 °F.
saw a nws post this morning arizona with 113..whew
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
1052. Patrap
The Radar shows the Dry Air/Shear Wall interface shunting the convection N.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where have we heard that before?

well it is true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bayoubug:
For what it's worth i'm going with the swirl about to emerge off the Yucatan peninsula....
looks.interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049. MahFL
Just pray the shear maps are over done.....:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1048. TXCWC
Quoting louisianaboy444:
These models have no idea guys. I can't make heads or tails of this mess I don't see how any model can...Models or suited to model a point in space moving within a Lagrangian framework which means its a point in space moving with the flow. So if the model does not have an initial grid space box or point to latch on to then they are going to be all over the place. Once this system develops a consolidated area of low pressure and its coordinates are tagged i think the models will come into much more of an agreement.


Agree - will all depend on where Invest 96 is designated. Something the Ensembles seem to be hinting at is that a further West development = a better chance to get caught under the Ridge to the North and less chance to get completely caught up in the East Trough - which will be short lived. As others have said, once tropical models are put on this we will have a much clearer picture of future track - hopefully :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chris has developed a ring of decent convection around the eye... It might be trying to push Hurricane Status before it goes Extratropical. We'll see... My highest wind forecast for Chris is to reach 65-70 mph.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


How hot are those white patches in the southwest, Cody?

100-110 °F.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1045. Patrap
..patience young Jedi,..

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting stormpetrol:

pressures are low near honduras
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingaway:


That area does seem to be in the least amount of shear.

If water temperature was the right one Chris would have likely reach hurricane status as shear looks to be decreasing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, the blob's going the wrong direction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah right with 50kt shear plust it increasing on the circulation I don't think so
plus the upper level anticyclone is in the GOH giving the developing circulation near Honduras lower shear

also convection near us is starting to expand Sward

Where have we heard that before?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1039. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521

Viewing: 1089 - 1039

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.