Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:


Wait so Chris was a hurricane last night though right and has now been down graded to a TS???


According to Wunderground storm track, it was never a hurricane..

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:


Wait so Chris was a hurricane last night though right and has now been down graded to a TS???


Chris is a hurricane, it will be upgraded at 11am.
AL, 03, 2012062112, , BEST, 0, 405N, 439W, 65, 987, HU
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2437. Grothar
A lot of yellow showing. Very cold cloud tops. It is beginning to get a little rounder,too.



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Quoting RTSplayer:


Louisiana actually has a coastal flood watch issued already, with about a foot of flooding forecast.

That may come way, way up if the NAM and Canadian models verify, even if the storm totally misses Louisiana, it might come up to 3 to 5 feet in some areas, if it gets that big and strong as the Canadian says anyway...


While I do agree with you and trust me my camp near the pass is feeling it already I would much rather some slight water rise than a Hurricane dead on hit..
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Quoting Patrap:


TS Chris is not a Hurricane as per the NHC 8am


Wait so Chris was a hurricane last night though right and has now been down graded to a TS???
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Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
IM just glad to see Louisiana hasnt been mentioned... all this talk of Texas and Florida..


CMC takes a jog at NOLA. just sayin

It might also get.....Houston.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting 7544:


so it should get a tag 96l before the plane goes ?



That is what I am thinking by reading that. I am not 100% sure though. I would assume it needs to be an invest prior to them flying into it..
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
IM just glad to see Louisiana hasnt been mentioned... all this talk of Texas and Florida..


Louisiana actually has a coastal flood watch issued already, with about a foot of flooding forecast.

That may come way, way up if the NAM and Canadian models verify, even if the storm totally misses Louisiana, it might come up to 3 to 5 feet in some areas, if it gets that big and strong as the Canadian says anyway...
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You're gonna see a very aggravated discussion from the NHC on Chris...
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Yes!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chris is a hurricane?!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4410
2429. Patrap


TS Chris is not a Hurricane as per the NHC 8am
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
The Nogaps and GFS, split the system in two near florida, and the CMC develops the system into a problable to a Hur.cat 3 going to TX, and the ECMWF develops the system into a cat.1 or 2 going to the northwest side of florida,i think the cmc is out of range,for me the two best prediction models are GFS and ECMWF, but i think ECMWF IS MORE realistic, because, GFS some time is more conservative, but i think in the next 48-78 is when, we see what real happens in the gulf, because there are others factors like the dry air...ect
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2427. 7544
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Pat,I dont know if you saw my post of page 48,but here is again todays TCPOD.Is a go for Fridays mission.

NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W


so it should get a tag 96l before the plane goes ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Chris is a hurricane?!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Pat,I dont know if you saw my post of page 48,but here is again todays TCPOD.Is a go for Fridays mission.

NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
2423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
IM just glad to see Louisiana hasnt been mentioned... all this talk of Texas and Florida..




no one is outta the woods yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Lengthy blog update!
Hurricane Chris, Caribbean disturbance soon to be 96L
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2421. MahFL
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Well, since everyone is talking about Chris and all, I would like to say:

Happy Solstice!


That was yesterday, your a day late, try again next year !
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guys it looks like the atlantic is beating the pacific this year
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Good morning all. I can't believe Chris is now a hurricane. WOW
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Quoting Patrap:
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins) GOES-13 Low Cloud Product Loop


Yeah, this is a big LLC, clearly, if the system gets better stacked it should develop, and it might be a bit harder to turn than the GFS or Euro implies. Maybe that's why the Canadian takes it due west all the way.

The Low over Mexico may actually be retrograding right now, which might also agree with Canadian, opening up a hole for it to move farther west. Kinda hard to tell if that's just a wobble or imagination though.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..I fear its going to get worst even with the Invest designated with the model runs..


Lol. Yeah that can happen. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
Will have to wait and see but anything that busts that ridge so we can keep getting rain is good.
Quoting redwagon:


It looks crazy but the L activity seems to be winning the race with the H ridge slowly coming down. In fact, it looks like the L in OK and the GOM one are meeting, going to split the Ridge in half.

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2415. Mucinex
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Wonder if the FL card has been pulled this year and our storm drought is over. 2 of 4 so far if the Gulf disturbance plays out like most are thinking.

Even though it would be bad for me, I'm gonna say yes.
And because I'm an intuition-caster, I'm gonna go even farther out there and say that Debby is going to bust the TampaSheild.
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I just knew that pre-96L was mentioned in the Speical Features.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 39.9N 44.8W AT 21/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 547 NM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING E-NE AT 17
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 1010 MB LOW HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH AT
21/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 29N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
20N87W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N81W TO 21N87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA...SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO S OF 29N W OF 90W...
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 77W...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF HISPANIOLA.
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IM just glad to see Louisiana hasnt been mentioned... all this talk of Texas and Florida..
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2412. 900MB
Anyone make anything out of that subtle dry swirl at 27.5N, 67.5W?
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Tampa hurricane shields are up and ready.


i wouldnt trust them anymore, look at all the rain that has gotten through lately.
the hurricane shields are no better than the rain shields
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Very large axis in the Gulf, you can see it very well on RGB now. Convection is offset quite a bit to the SE of the axis, but I think it's starting to build more in that direction. If the shear lifts a bit and the upper level high gets in a better position, it should have plenty time to develop to TD status.
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2408. trey33
Quoting fireflymom:
Uplifting-



funny (and true)
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Uplifting-
Quoting MoeWest:
I wonder what it is like for a shark to swim in the eye of a hurricane...

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and that loop current
= ugly situation for somebody.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
2405. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know where it's going either. I wish we'd get an invest so we could have more models driving us crazy. lol


LOL..I fear its going to get worst even with the Invest designated with the model runs..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
Quoting washingtonian115:
If it stalls out over those waters with that anticyclone...
Time will tell if Debby will become are next major hurricane.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Tampa hurricane shields are up and ready.
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Quoting windshear1993:
when they upgradde chris to a hurricane i say they would put it atleast 75-80mph


well that is a given, they cant go lower :)

75mph
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
2401. Patrap
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins) GOES-13 Low Cloud Product Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting RitaEvac:


Weakness. Never know we may have a 1-2 punch in the GOM

I think we'll get a Too_Fast_Debby way before FL gets their I'ma_Comin'_Ernesto.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If it stalls out over those waters with that anticyclone...


and that loop current
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
when they upgradde chris to a hurricane i say they would put it atleast 75-80mph
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2397. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting Jeff9631:
Folks it looks like Central FL could be the future target of Debby! Tampa could be in for a big one!



According to the latest models, the only model targeting Central Fl is the GFS and it's a very weak system. Many of the others tageting either the north Gulf or the Pan Handle or north FL.
In fact, Crown Weather Service latest discussion now thinks TX, and discounts the GFS, but they do say a lot of things can change.


Link
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
21% Major hurricane this far out does not seem like something I want to deal with swirling around in the GOM.
If it stalls out over those waters with that anticyclone...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's ok, quite frankly I don't know where this is heading as the CMC, GFS, and Euro models are all very reliable models.


I don't know where it's going either. I wish we'd get an invest so we could have more models driving us crazy. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm not going to lie, Chris is a beautiful storm.

Is there new convection firing on the NE side of the eye wall?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
2392. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


All hurricanes are 'hers' to me..


I dunno....Igor? That was a pretty manly storm. Otherwise yes I usually agree lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
chris reminds me of epsilon from 2005 lol
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Here is todays TCPOD. The Friday afternoon mission is a go.

NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
2389. 900MB
Wow! Chris is what I call a..

Bizarrocane!

Really a hurricane at 38N? In June?

My early season prediction called for unusual activity in the Atlantic, but this is just plain bizarre!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.