Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Code Orange :D

Who's ready for an invest?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Hurricane Chris?



awesome eye
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
Quoting Articuno:
What will the AOI be at 8?

A. Yellow Circle(0-20%)
B. Orange circle(30-50%)
C. Red Circle (60% and above)

A. 20% but increasing slowly tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
He compares the food product little Debbie to the Debby on the list.But Debby won't be so little...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Which is why that won't be the one to win, Robert!!!!!!!!!!!

Defying the GFS and the ECMWF; see how far that gets you, man.
Do not fear Janiel, I'm on your side. We can meet up tonight for a prayer service to make sure that this disturbance rapidly intensifies and destroys south Florida. Sounds sweet?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


A.

I say B 30%
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
1332. ncstorm
we had strong troughs last year and the year before that during the summer..it happens
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13458
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
Quoting Articuno:
What will the AOI be at 8?

A. Yellow Circle(0-20%)
B. Orange circle(30-50%)
C. Red Circle (60% and above)


B..what the heck, let's give the sucker a chance to develop!!
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Yeah I'm having a hard time seeing that due east track towards Tampa also...Maybe in November but in June? I'd have to see that to believe it
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Quoting Articuno:
What will the AOI be at 8?

A. Yellow Circle(0-20%)
B. Orange circle(30-50%)
C. Red Circle (60% and above)


A.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What will the AOI be at 8?

A. Yellow Circle(0-20%)
B. Orange circle(30-50%)
C. Red Circle (60% and above)
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
Quoting Stormchaser121:
KFDM says this system will be no threat to TX this will be a Florida storm 100%. Texas probably wont get its first hurricane until August or September when we usually get them.lol he doesnt have a clue! It truly depends on which center wins out
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I'm assuming that if the circulation near the Yucatan peninsula were to become dominant, then the likelihood of a Florida path would be far less plausible as a more southerly-located system would not constitute towards that much of a poleward track that would allow for troughiness to pick it up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
i have a feeling that 95E will be drop in the next two
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
1321. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat just took a nice slice of the African wave. Along the bottom brown is land, blue is water. Look "shallow" or like it doesn't have much height. Click pic for better look & origination.
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I'm currently watching live weather chat on that abc action news thing.
Quoting LargoFl:
aww the fish love'um
They can have'em.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
Quoting washingtonian115:
Chris is very lonely out in the Atlantic.


That happens when you form far away from nearly everywhere, except Bermuda of course.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Chris is very lonely out in the Atlantic.

Lets just leave him where he is Wash.
We dont want any of them Hurricane antics over on our side thank You!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
Quoting Skyepony:
I think the two will just combine nicely. Though they both show vort at 850mb~ one off SWFL is stronger. Both show vort at 500mb but Yucatan one is stronger. NASA GMAO has been showing a seamless bringing together of these too like it did with the two blobs there that already pulled together to make the one off SWFL.


Good evening, Sky, how are you? Seems we are all getting together so much earlier this year. Enjoy your posts. Looking forward to an interesting season. What is so scary for me, it that this S. FL rainy season is just like 2004 and we all KNOW what happened that year! Getting a little nervous. I remember the spring, early summer rains because me daughter got married in June. Then we were hit with Frances and Jeanne. Just waiting, watching and hoping not the same scenario!!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Its very simple actually...the GFS and EURO are seeing that the eventual center of this storm will be further east thus getting caught in the trough and lifted out...The UKMET and the Canadian and other ensemble members of the GFS see the center forming off further to the west thus getting caught under the ridge. Give me an invest with an actual center and i'll be more inclined to believe those model runs. Period.

I agree will have to see how it plays out.
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Quoting Skyepony:
I think the two will just combine nicely. Though they both show vort at 850mb~ one off SWFL is stronger. Both show vort at 500mb but Yucatan one is stronger. NASA GMAO has been showing a seamless bringing together of these too like it did with the two blobs there that already pulled together to make the one off SWFL.


A union of the two is certainly a possible solution and given their close proximity it may become impossible in time to tell whether they merged or one simply became dominant at the expense of the other. As in business, there is nothing that is ever really a true merger LOL
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1314. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Chris is very lonely out in the Atlantic.
aww the fish love'um
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
KFDM says this system will be no threat to TX this will be a Florida storm 100%. Texas probably wont get its first hurricane until August or September when we usually get them.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1140
1312. LargoFl
..........................this furturecast puts the whatever it becomes..into the florida panhandle-and alabama coast saturday to sunday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting kmanislander:
Notice the much expanded area for the probability of TC formation ?. This is what happens when more than one feature is on the go for possible development in a single large area.

Chris is very lonely out in the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
1310. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ADT numbers would be higher for Chris if the center would be analyzed in the correct location.



Not sure why they used forecast points for fixed before it gets an eye. I should bust out the manual.
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Quoting NavarreMark:
All of the swirls are going to combine into one and become The Rocket Fueled Swirl of Doom.


OMG, it is just June 20, and am already running low on stockpile of Fresca & Cheetos!!
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Notice the much expanded area for the probability of TC formation ?. This is what happens when more than one feature is on the go for possible development in a single large area.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1307. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..wish i could post the whole track, but this futurecast puts whatever it becomes into the florida panhandle-alabama coastline this weekend
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting allancalderini:
you are very bad..lol XD
I had to re-edit my post :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
1304. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13458
1303. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some bold fat white dude...okay scratch that he has some hair.
you are very bad..lol XD
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
1301. Skyepony (Mod)
I think the two will just combine nicely. Though they both show vort at 850mb~ one off SWFL is stronger. Both show vort at 500mb but Yucatan one is stronger. NASA GMAO has been showing a seamless bringing together of these too like it did with the two blobs there that already pulled together to make the one off SWFL.
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Hurricane Chris?

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1299. LargoFl
this from weather.com.............


Tropical Tap



Enhanced Satellite Loop

The "Sunshine State" has already had its share of soakers over the last month.

First, Tropical Storm Beryl brought a little too much of a good thing to drought-suffering north Florida, as well as parts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Then, parts of the Florida Panhandle were inundated with torrential rainfall on June 9-10. In Pensacola, Fla., June 9 was their second wettest day on record, with an incredible 13.13" just that day, not to mention inundating rainfall also in Mobile, Ala.

(MORE: Pensacola flood)

Even before the Gulf tropical system forms, a plume of deep tropical moisture will take aim on parts of the Sunshine State. In fact, that already has occurred.

Key West, Fla. picked up over 3" of rain Tuesday. According to the National Weather Service in Key West, the period from August 1, 2011 through June 19, 2012 was the wettest such period on record, there, with a whopping 58.13" of rain.




Heavy Rain Outlook



Interactive Radar
Flood Alerts

Pockets of locally heavy rain will wrap into particularly southwest Florida the next couple of days, including the Florida Keys, and locations such as Naples, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, Miami, and Tampa-St. Petersburg.

Then, the "potential Debby" will likely organize more heavy rainfall in parts of south and central Florida this weekend into early next week! Some locations may pick up over 8" of total rainfall through early next week, leading to flood
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who is he talking to?
Some bold fat white dude...okay scratch that he has some hair.And another scratch.I didn't have my glasses on.He looks skinny.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


The Track for this one will be very hard to discern.


Until we see consolidation of one specific low center it is just a mess which the models cannot handle. As ever it is all in the timing and how quickly we see consolidation versus the building high from the East.

I certainly would not hazard a guess on track with all of the uncertainties that exist now.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


The A/B High is in a dangerous location for all of the carribean islands, S/CA America, and of course the United States.
The models show it week until it enters the caribbean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
This Tampa met is the !@#$:

Link

For those of you interested, =).

Who is he talking to?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
1293. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting kmanislander:


I forgot to mention that shear over the Gulf is much higher than over the Central Yucatan where it is relatively low and has been falling. This would give the Yucatan low an edge over the other area to hold deep convection and develop. They also appear to be converging and one will become dominant in time due to proximity.


The Track for this one will be very hard to discern.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1291. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Remember that 20-25 inches forcasted for central florida?

Key west is in the running


..gee they are getting hammered huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Key West Station:

Station SANF1
NDBC
Location: 24.454N 81.877W
Date: Wed, 20 Jun 2012 22:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 25.1 kt gusting to 27.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.90 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.0 F

Confirms that a LLC is located to the WNW/NW of Key West.


29.9 inches is 1012.5 mbs versus 1007/1008 over the Yucatan. Each feature has positives and negatives so this portends a struggle for dominance.
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Remember that 20-25 inches forcasted for central florida?

Key west is in the running


Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.