Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Convective increase near the Yucatan Peninsula most likely being caused by land diurnal max is being shuttled into the Western Caribbean by Westerly flow...It appears if this continues air will be forced to rise and this could be where things try to get going
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Wow this guys annoying! Cant say the model is going to be right! keep dreaming
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Please.......


Why is it no matter how many handles you have, every single one wants to cause drama?

Seriously, we come on this blog to talk about weather, if everyone agreed about everything it would be boring. Just because Koris' opinion is different than what you think does not make it a wishcast

Kori is very knowledgeable and I have never seen
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1436. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
the CMC wraps it up very tightly..

this looks like what really is going to happen
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Too many lows, Taz!



lol
Also, SE GOM already has a roadblock in it......
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
1434. Patrap
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1433. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:
.....tampa cam...thunder boomers over there right now, i can hear them off in the distance


Nice visual!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16076
1432. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
1431. ncstorm
the CMC wraps it up very tightly..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16076

Quoting washingtonian115:
If that anticyclone can build over the gulf a stronger system will certainly not be out of the question.Then again the shear from the trough can effect the storm and have it as a weak storm.
Trough interaction can also strengthen storms in certain situations (i.e. Charley). Of course, we have little skill at predicting this.
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All models or out to lunch....They have been flipping all over the place....
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


And I'm growing wings right now.

Good luck convincing others of that
Pretty sure you're the only one NOT convinced of it, but okay. Whatever floats your boat, I guess.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I think that a surface low will be tagged just to the North or NW of the Yucatan peninsula within the next 12 to 24 hours. That is as far as I am prepared to go at this time. After that we need to see where shear values stand and how quickly the ridge builds from the East and over the NE Gulf coast.
If that anticyclone can build over the gulf a stronger system will certainly not be out of the question.Then again the shear from the trough can effect the storm and have it as a weak storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17491
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro Ensembles..



notice the three lows..one on the east coast and two in the GOM



make that 4 lows
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Here one....Wishcaster....LA..But lets see what pans out in 24 hours...
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1419. ncstorm
12z Ukmet


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16076
Quoting Skyepony:
CitikatzSouthFL~ See what you mean about the similarities with 2004. Even the pattern in the WPAC is similar to that year. One big difference is the early start. Wunder if the TCHP will be hot off FL like that year.



That year was so strange. 2 storms 3 weeks apart. I am looking at this spring/early summer weather pattern and thinking I need to hunker down!! The early start to the season is the ONLY thing keeping me from thinking it might not be the same. Only time will tell.
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Have to head off now but will check back later.
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Where are my Louisiana wish-casters at tonight?

Cough, Kori & Trev, cough

^_^.
I never wishcast, bro. Never.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The future tropical evolution of the system.


I think that a surface low will be tagged just to the North or NW of the Yucatan peninsula within the next 12 to 24 hours. That is as far as I am prepared to go at this time. After that we need to see where shear values stand and how quickly the ridge builds from the East and over the NE Gulf coast.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1411. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont no why the nhc this tag them both make one 96L and make the other 97L and see wish one wins it out


This is why I was calling for 2 or 3 invests in the Atlantic this week a few days ago. With two AOI so close together it was hard to call.


No TRMM passes of Chris yet. Here's one today of Talim. Click for quicktime.
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1410. ncstorm
12z Euro Ensembles..



notice the three lows..one on the east coast and two in the GOM
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16076

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just as long as you're not absorbing people...
What if I just absorb the androids?
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1408. LargoFl
...oh boy, our turn for Rain is about to arrive...GT..you seeing this?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
First time I have ever seen something track into Europe.

Lets hope its the last.
A lot of the houses here are built out of mud and rubble.
I once watched a bathroom dissolve from the outside whilst I was inside it, in a storm in about 94 when it rained 10 inches in a morning.
As I said, we dont want any of dem hurricane things over on our side. We have enough with cold, snow, storms, rains, and the plummeting value of the Euro to think about!
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Kori and Trev, partners in crime, reunited once more in here tonight!

G'evening, gents, ^_^.


Yep! Most of the time I'll post tropical updates on my facebook pages...I need to start making blogs again I miss my Wunderground family
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1405. LargoFl
Quoting cataholic:
Hello everyone - another lurker coming out from the shadows. I live in a mobile home, in an "A" evacuation area, in St. Pete FL. Needless to say, I'm getting a little nervous right now. I appreciate the long term outlooks on this site - much farther out than what they report on tv. I've already got my plans if I and my 6 cats (that I'll admit to) have to evacuate, but having as much advanced notice as possible is critical for me. A "few days" is definitely not enough. Please keep posting the great maps and models - I'm watching them like a hawk!
..hello and welcome,just rain for now til something forms for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Cody, that area in the extreme northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, why is it speaking to me?

Well, I hope it's not speaking to you. That would be a problem.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I know. I came so close to attaining perfection, too. :(

Just as long as you're not absorbing people...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




starting too look a little better
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Quoting kmanislander:


About what ?
The future tropical evolution of the system.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17491
Hello everyone - another lurker coming out from the shadows. I live in a mobile home, in an "A" evacuation area, in St. Pete FL. Needless to say, I'm getting a little nervous right now. I appreciate the long term outlooks on this site - much farther out than what they report on tv. I've already got my plans if I and my 6 cats (that I'll admit to) have to evacuate, but having as much advanced notice as possible is critical for me. A "few days" is definitely not enough. Please keep posting the great maps and models - I'm watching them like a hawk!
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1399. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
656 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064 -141-144-147-210100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
656 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

.NOW...

SCATTERED WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND JUPITER INLET. RADAR TRENDS
WERE INDICATING THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD COME ASHORE
BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT PIERCE AND MOVE INTO OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. BRIEF PONDING OF RAIN WATER
ON ROADWAYS ALONG THE COAST MELBOURNE TO FORT PIERCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I dont like debby snakes
I only like the Dunk'in sticks.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Wow you forget something...thats remarkable


I know. I came so close to attaining perfection, too. :(
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Starting to think the two areas are going to continue to fight each other all of the way to landfall, and we'll just get a bunch of squally rain across the Gulf and surrounding states...

and I'm about as big of a Florida wishcaster as there is...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Haha, you're right. Bret was so diminutive and brief that I usually forget about it.


Wow you forget something...thats remarkable
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey K-man.What's your thoughts?.


I just got in. I'll need some time to analyze things. Doing a blog right now.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey K-man.What's your thoughts?.


About what ?
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Quoting HurrAndrew:


Wouldn't it be seven years? 2005 had two.

Arlene (June 8) and Bret (June 28th).


Haha, you're right. Bret was so diminutive and brief that I usually forget about it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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