Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1489 - 1439

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Quoting intampa:
finally .... rain in east tampa bay area.
Good for you!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1487. Patrap
TS Chris

22:15 UTC Viz


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Anyone have a vorticity map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1485. LargoFl
Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1132 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...

SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER AT DELANO AFFECTING WRIGHT COUNTY
CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD AFFECTING HENNEPIN AND WRIGHT COUNTIES
SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER AFFECTING CARVER COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST CLOUD AFFECTING BENTON...SHERBURNE AND
STEARNS COUNTIES

.OVERVIEW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC053-171-212231-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0013.120623T1400Z-000000T0000Z/
/RKFM5.1.ER.120623T1400Z.120626T0600Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
1132 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* FOR ROCKFORD, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 11.7
FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADS ALONG THE
RIVER BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.2 FEET...HEIGHT OF THE TOP OF THE BANK ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIVER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 10.1 FEET
ON JUL 31 1997.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting ncstorm:


I found the NHC crayons..


At the end of the run it does look like a 3 year old got a hold of the crayons.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Probably looking at a 55-60 kt tropical storm.



I would agree! Little eye going there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Still sames to me like any surface circulation or near surface sames to be just ENE of Roatan, Honduras! " that is associated with big blob of deepest convection"
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
So the GFS basically shows it staying in our basin?...I'm talking about MJO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1480. Patrap
.."itsa Mojo Rising"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796

Quoting 1900hurricane:

What a modeled mess! Still though, that is interesting to see. Looks like anywhere along the Gulf can't be eliminated yet.
Smartest comment yet today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I was tuned in and I can confirm that.

The GFS is preforming pretty bad with this system, it's gone way screwy with that MJO forecast. It actually tries to turn this system sub-tropical in the Gulf from a ridiculously amplified trough before going completely extra-tropical as it leaves Florida. It's actually expecting the MJO to return to Oct 8, a 180 degree turn right now, then return to Oct 1.



As I said on the last page, follow the ECMWF as it seems to have a good grip on the situation.



Well. The MJO has moved back towards there, number 18 and then 19 moves begins the reverse motion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1477. 7544
its going to head back ne and drown so fl again ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingaway:
18z spaghetti, with some meatballs.

What a modeled mess! Still though, that is interesting to see. Looks like anywhere along the Gulf can't be eliminated yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1475. LargoFl
gee, these people up there are in for it.............FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...
SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS...SOUTHEASTERN ITASCA...EASTERN AITKIN...NORTH
CENTRAL PINE AND CARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY...

* AT 620 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED
MANY AREAS IMPACTED BY FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED REGION.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ELY...
HIBBING...SUPERIOR...ALBORN...ARTHYDE...AURORA...A UTOMBA...
BABBITT...BALL BLUFF...BALSAM...BARNUM...BASSWOOD LAKE...BIWABIK...
BLACKBERRY...BOVEY...BRIMSON...BROOKSTON...BURNETT ...CALUMET...
CANYON...CARLTON...CHERRY...COLERAINE...COTTON...C ROMWELL...
CULVER...DADS CORNER...DENHAM...ELMER AND EMBARRASS.

* UNTIL NOON FRIDAY

PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. WHILE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
CURRENT FLOODING. INTENSE RUNOFF IS CAUSING RAPID RISES WHICH ARE
ROUTING DOWNSTREAM...IMPACTING MANY COMMUNITIES AND ROADS.

SOME REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE NUMEROUS ROAD
WASHOUTS AND CLOSURES. THE CLOQUET RIVER IS RUNNING VERY HIGH WITH
WATER MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS. THIS HIGH WATER IS
IMPACTING RESIDENCE ALONG BOWMAN AND HUNTER LAKES BELOW ISLAND LAKE
RESERVOIR.

THE FLOODWOOD POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED RAPID RISES ON THE
FLOODWOOD RIVER WITH A FEW HOMES FLOODED. THIS RIVER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE RISING FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FLOODWOOD POLICE REPORT THAT EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR
SEVERAL HOMES ON 4TH AND 5TH AVE IN THE TOWN OF FLOODWOOD.

IN AITKIN COUNTY HIGHWAY 65 FROM MCGREGOR TO COUNTY HWY 4 IS CLOSED
AND MULTIPLE ROADS ARE WASHED OUT OR INUNDATED WITH WATER ACROSS THE
COUNTY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
1474. wxmod
I know some of you will say this has nothing to do with the weather, but, if you think there's no such thing as weather modification or geoengineering, think about where every other science and technology is at. Your right to privacy, right to natural air, water and food is going, going...You won't even know until it hits you. And it's not a conspiracy. It's a fact. They'll probably use these man made insects someday to give us all an injection of who knows what. Enjoy the real weather while you can.

US military surveillance future: Drones now come in swarms?

http://www.rt.com/news/us-drones-swarms-274/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I dont like debby snakes


Well there's always Little Debbie Cakes!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One of Tampa's local news stations has a live weather chat/livestream every night and it was mentioned there.

Show ended 23 minutes ago, unfortunately.


I was tuned in and I can confirm that.

The GFS is preforming pretty bad with this system, it's gone way screwy with that MJO forecast. It actually tries to turn this system sub-tropical in the Gulf from a ridiculously amplified trough before going completely extra-tropical as it leaves Florida. It's actually expecting the MJO to return to Oct 8, a 180 degree turn right now, then return to Oct 1.



As I said on the last page, follow the ECMWF as it seems to have a better grip on the situation, although is likely overdoing the intensity.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1471. ncstorm
Quoting washingaway:
18z spaghetti, with some meatballs.


I found the NHC crayons..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we got code orange 30% i see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Probably looking at a 55-60 kt tropical storm.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
18z spaghetti, with some meatballs.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
1467. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Man, if this mess in the GOM/Carribean were in August or September, we'd already be seeing a hurricane out of it. There's so much tropical moisture in there, that it would be ashamed if nothing becomes of that.

And Chris is my new favourite storm of the season thus far, his persistence and handsome physique are getting me all fuzzy. And so far north, too! Reminds me of a Canadian!

Yeah, I'm Canadian too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1465. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
157 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 20 2012


The trough should be well into the Gulf Thursday night which should
again keep highest rain chances offshore with lower chances to the
east. Most models are forecasting this trough to consolidate into an
area of low pressure north of the Yucatan between Thursday night and
Friday...but there are differences in position and intensity which
will have a big impact on how much rain we see through Friday. For
now...my confidence is not high enough to go with any more than 50
percent rain chances on Friday. The best rain chances should be
over the southern half of our area and mostly during the
afternoon.


Ample cloud cover during this period should keep our temperatures a
few degrees below normal each day.


Long term (previous discussion Friday night-wednesday)...
not much change to the ongoing long term forecast. The period still
begins with a surface low north of the Yucatan Peninsula with
surface high pressure over the western Atlantic. There are still
some ongoing differences between model solutions as far as the
evolution of the low and therefore how much rain the forecast area
will get through early next week. The GFS is generally the wetter
solution through Monday as it shows the low moving off the northeast
coast of Florida and out to sea. The European model (ecmwf) keeps much of the rain
offshore until late Sunday as the low moves closer to the West Coast
of Florida. This solution keeps US fairly wet through Tuesday with
the low right over the state. Continued to use a blend for the
forecast for now...but there seems to be a good chance for some rain
across the forecast area into early next week. Depending on rainfall
and cloud cover...temperatures will run a few degrees cooler in the
afternoon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Looks like the low on the Yucatan is at about the 700 mb level.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One of Tampa's local news stations has a live weather chat/livestream every night and it was mentioned there.

Show ended 23 minutes ago, unfortunately.


Ah, alright.

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1461. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Interesting.

Can I have a link to that?

One of Tampa's local news stations has a live weather chat/livestream every night and it was mentioned there.

Show ended 23 minutes ago, unfortunately.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to a meteorologist at NWS Ruskin, shear should be a non-factor for this disturbance in a few days.


Interesting.

Can I have a link to that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1455. Patrap
ESL by LSU GOES-13 Low Cloud Product Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1453. LargoFl
Quoting cataholic:


Rain, I can handle. I'm more concerned about this system spinning up really fast and close, leaving little time to get out before it's too late. From what I'm seeing, it could become a strong TS almost overnight.
well watch for local warnings but i think we are safe for a few days, nothing Has formed yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Ukmet



??? what in the world...the ridge over tx might weaken?
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to a meteorologist at NWS Ruskin, shear should be a non-factor for this disturbance in a few days.
Yes he said something about a anti-cyclone developing over in the gulf that could help ventilate the system when if it comes over top of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm ready for the 00Z soundings to come in. It'll be interesting to see what they look like coming from places like Key West and Cancun.

In the meantime, it looks like the RAP is putting the low right off the NE tip of the Yucatan.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Once that mid-level low over the Yucatan can get over water and organize, we should have an invest.

Could take 12-18 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1447. ncstorm
looks to me more ensembles of the CMC are showing florida than texas

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..hello and welcome,just rain for now til something forms for sure


Rain, I can handle. I'm more concerned about this system spinning up really fast and close, leaving little time to get out before it's too late. From what I'm seeing, it could become a strong TS almost overnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1445. Patrap
NEXSAT: GOM Viz Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
I think I agree with kman, it will all be about timing

to me what the CMC is showing is very possible, but so is what the ECMWF and GFS are showing

I tend to lean towards the latter due to what models are showing it and have been fairly consistently, but the CMC is not out to lunch either

It will be all up to timing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1443. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Man that Yucatan spin is really taking off, convection brewing all over. I was so obsessed with the spin by Florida on the visible that I failed to see a much better organized by the Yucatan on the water vabor. I have a feeling that this will not be a compact storm, it will be a large one. I would not be surprised if it is named Thursday night. Look out Gulf Coast!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
According to a meteorologist at NWS Ruskin, shear should be a non-factor for this disturbance in a few days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
1440. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Convective increase near the Yucatan Peninsula most likely being caused by land diurnal max is being shuttled into the Western Caribbean by Westerly flow...It appears if this continues air will be forced to rise and this could be where things try to get going
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352

Viewing: 1489 - 1439

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron