Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1539 - 1489

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
More Rain moving into S FL


The LULL has been nice this afternoon. No hot sun, fresh breeze, could do without the humidity but, kinda nice this afternoon. Activity will pick back up tonight however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh dear. Finding a center in pre-96L is most difficult at this hour. I've tried extensively, but... nothing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1537. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I've been monitoring the map from sailwx most of the day and it's the only area that has been showing signs, just can't get a reading the the SW quad to confirm it, all other quads are confirmed. Visible showed it well today.



I see a SSW wind barb to the SW of the Yucatan Low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yes!:)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1535. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20120620 2345 38.6 47.5 T3.5/3.5 03L CHRIS
20120620 1745 38.2 50.2 T2.5/2.5 03L CHRIS
20120620 1215 38.1 52.2 T2.5/2.5 03L CHRIS
20120620 0545 38.6 54.6 T2.5/2.5 03L CHRIS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the National Hurricane Center kept the ATCF file at 50 knots just in case convection dwindles between now and advisory time. If it doesn't, I think we'll see a stronger system.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
AL, 03, 2012062100, , BEST, 0, 386N, 475W, 50, 995, TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1532. 7544
Quoting xcool:
30% from nhc .haha



and no invest tag yet lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
its going to head back ne and drown so fl again ?
Again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1530. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't put much faith in ADT estimates atm.


Regardless, we probably won't see a hurricane from Chris.



Never say never, I've, and you, have seen these things do some oddball "WTF" things. Made a rule several years ago to never discount ANYTHING in the tropics nowadays.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1528. xcool
30% from nhc .haha no Invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey where's WXGeekVA?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16981
1525. 7544
gfs crosses fl then out to sea last run seems about right on this end
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
More Rain moving into S FL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wouldn't put much faith in ADT estimates atm.


Regardless, we probably won't see a hurricane from Chris.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
ADT on Chris is as useful as Janiel on the blog; keeps initializing Chris' circulation in the western semicircle as TA13 has pointed out several times.

Sorry for the shots JFV, I still luh' you. <3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1521. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
1519. Patrap
Chris current from ADT

..note the weakening flag is on.


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUN 2012 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 38:44:34 N Lon : 47:57:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 998.6mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -23.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 38:32:24 N Lon: 47:20:59 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.9 degrees
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Patrap:
Really broad rotation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm ready for the 00Z soundings to come in. It'll be interesting to see what they look like coming from places like Key West and Cancun.

In the meantime, it looks like the RAP is putting the low right off the NE tip of the Yucatan.



I've been monitoring the map from sailwx most of the day and it's the only area that has been showing signs, just can't get a reading the the SW quad to confirm it, all other quads are confirmed. Visible showed it well today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Where do you keep getting these? All I have is this and this, neither of which show numbers anywhere close to that.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Thats not my real name lol

well...you need to quit criticizing people...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chris is almost a hurricane.

20/2345 UTC 38.6N 47.5W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic
70 mph sounds about right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kept at 60 mph. I don't think that's what the advisory will show though.

AL, 03, 2012062100, , BEST, 0, 386N, 475W, 50, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Keeps it in the western hemisphere...so yes.
Thank you.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16981
Quoting Patrap:
ESL by LSU GOES-13 Low Cloud Product Loop


Thanks,much nicer loop than any fron the NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
No one has answered my question...
Keeps it in the western hemisphere...so yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thats not my real name lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chris is almost a hurricane.

20/2345 UTC 38.6N 47.5W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic


Where do you keep getting these? All I have is this and this, neither of which show numbers anywhere close to that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chris is almost a hurricane.

20/2345 UTC 38.6N 47.5W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic
Come on Chris you can do it!.Now wouldn't that be somethin'in for so far north this time of year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16981
1505. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
as the sun sets we lose the last of the visbiles for the day



now we go IR till sunrise
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chris is almost a hurricane.

20/2345 UTC 38.6N 47.5W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
If anyone cares to hear my thoughts on pre-96L, stick around. I just finished writing up on Chris, and will now take an extensive look at this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1502. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Advisory

Statement as of 7:12 PM CDT on June 20, 2012

... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 7 am CDT
Saturday...

* coastal flooding... minor coastal flooding of less than one
foot expected.

* Timing... flooding will occur during each high tide cycle.
Highest tides will occur in the afternoon hours.

* Impacts... minor overwash of low lying roadways in the
immediate vicinity of the coast. Flooding will be less than
one foot.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
No one has answered my question...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16981
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm eating spaghetti and meatballs tonight. :O


Don't forget the parmesan.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1162
Quoting Patrap:



Tropical Storm 03L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUN 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 38:41:55 N Lon : 48:08:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 998.6mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : -26.6C Cloud Region Temp : -23.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 38:29:24 N Lon: 47:32:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.7 degrees




Too bad the center was analyzed in the wrong position. Messes everything up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
1498. Patrap



Tropical Storm 03L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUN 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 38:41:55 N Lon : 48:08:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 998.6mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : -26.6C Cloud Region Temp : -23.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 38:29:24 N Lon: 47:32:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.7 degrees



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
I think we have a winner for the best picture of the Duluth Flood

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting washingaway:
18z spaghetti, with some meatballs.
I'm eating spaghetti and meatballs tonight. :O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1495. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Patrap:
TS Chris

22:15 UTC Viz




Annular :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chris looks beautiful.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16981
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone have a vorticity map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


I would agree! Little eye going there.

Overall, not a bad little storm structurally!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1490. Patrap




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting intampa:
finally .... rain in east tampa bay area.
Good for you!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223

Viewing: 1539 - 1489

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.