Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Didn't know some of you knew my real name.. impressed!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wasn't blank!


It was a period.... That's pretty blank
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Quoting weatherh98:
Only kori and tA13 knows my full name


Cory Tomato!
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 307
Quoting reedzone:


Correct!


TAWX13 have you been stalking his profile? :P
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting trey33:


I just spit on my keyboard... !!!

You might want to wipe that off. May cause it to stop working.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32700
Only kori and tA13 knows my full name
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Wave height forecast model..hmmm is this how its going to go?............Link


Let's hope that's wrong. That looks unpleasant.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


My name is the next one that's on the East Pacific list of names. :)
Daniel.Your in DENIAL.lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17620
Quoting reedzone:


Correct!


Ft Myers!
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 307
1630. Patrap
I just opened a cold fresh Fresca and it was F-l-a-t.

Is that a bad omen, like anthills and such?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, TA. You stopped by my blog and left a blank message?? I worked on that thing for hours.

It wasn't blank!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32700
1627. LargoFl
well thats it for me, good night everyone
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1626. 7544
Anoother batch of rain heading in to so fl
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Quoting reedzone:
Anyone take a stab of what my REAL name is???

Allan. Durrr.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Janiel, ma'am.


Hey man!

Sorry for being nice tohim we had a good convo!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Allan.


Correct!
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1622. TXCWC
Quoting ncstorm:


the 18z Individual Ensemble Member is still running but all I see is Panhandle to West Coast Florida so far? I dont see Texas?


Yes it does - this IS the 18Z Mean run


As is this 156hr


Maybe this view is better to see
156hr


168hr
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1621. Patrap
Mitt?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting reedzone:
Anyone take a stab of what my REAL name is???
Shameshia
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Quoting reedzone:
Anyone take a stab of what my REAL name is???

Zone?
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1616. trey33
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Allan.


I just spit on my keyboard... !!!
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1615. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
Wave height forecast model..hmmm is this how its going to go?............Link
..notice it goes up the east coast
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Okay guys... Here's my blog!
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Quoting reedzone:
Anyone take a stab of what my REAL name is???

Allan.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32700
Quoting reedzone:
Anyone take a stab of what my REAL name is???


Reed.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting 7544:
good ? What will so fl get if it did hit tampa


More hair gel!
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 307
Anyone take a stab of what my REAL name is???
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Quoting washingtonian115:
My real name is %6$#$3...got a problem?


My name is the next one that's on the East Pacific list of names. :)

Is that a valid hint? ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1608. LargoFl
Wave height forecast model..hmmm is this how its going to go?............Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

Nah, my real name's Ryan,

But that would be cool if my name was actually Articuno.
XD
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
1606. trey33
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:
I notice that the sky is blue during the day.


And at night? (sorry couldn't resist)
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1605. 7544
good ? What will so fl get if it did hit tampa
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1604. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your name's Ryan isn't it..? :P


Boy, TA. You stopped by my blog and left a blank message?? I worked on that thing for hours.
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none of the above weather statements
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I notice that the sky is blue during the day.
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 307
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Indeed. :P
been raining off and on all day. Nice violin. I started learning to play in December...
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1600. trey33
Quoting weatherh98:


TyDarious takes the cake


yep
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Janial?.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17620
Quoting KoritheMan:

I never wishcast, JFV. Never.


Fixed... there ya go.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know...I think Ethan's the best name. It's cool.


TyDarious takes the cake
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I don't know...I think Ethan's the best name. It's cool.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32700
Quoting washingtonian115:
My real name is %6$#$3...got a problem?

I actually loled in real life.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That's a good name. A very good name. Probably the best in fact.

Wow, first time I have been told that, Thanks. :]
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
Quoting Articuno:

Nah, my real name's Ryan,
While we are saying names... Nah

Chris passed beryl up because beryl was subtropical for a time correct
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your name's Ryan isn't it..? :P

Indeed. :P
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1590. trey33
Quoting washingtonian115:
My real name is %6$#$3...got a problem?


Nope.... lmao......
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

That's a good name. A very good name. Probably the best in fact.

Your name's Ryan isn't it..? :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32700

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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