Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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1689. JLPR2
So what caused the "guess my name game"? XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone want to take a guess at my name?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ThunderStruck2012:


No hay de que, INFELIZ!


El horno no esta pa galleticas!
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the hammer strikes swiftly..
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Quoting ThunderStruck2012:


For his behavior from earlier on tonight.


Great..... 3 in one day of the same person, that's a new record.
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what i miss
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No one knows my name! No one! ;)
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Quoting trey33:


I just spit on my keyboard... !!!
Is it on Fire?
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1679. ncstorm
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Finally.. thank you Admin : )


I dont think its over..LOL..a new handle just popped up
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15189
1678. Patrap
And as the Sun sets across America the next few Hours, we say Happy Summer Solstice all.

There are now 183 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
Quoting ThunderStruck2012:


For his behavior from earlier on tonight.
Hey again...
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LLC heading for 24N 89W.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting ThunderStruck2012:


For his behavior from earlier on tonight.



What did he do?
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Quoting ThunderStruck2012:


For his behavior from earlier on tonight.


Thanks JFV!
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Finally.. thank you Admin : )
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Finally.. thank you Admin!
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Quoting Patrap:
Mitt?
LOLOL, we have a winner.
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


I'm getting banned later tonight...


For?
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Quoting weatherh98:
Not even close


I think I remember you mentioning it once lol.
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TAWX13 you've got mail.
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I actually think Adrian is an excellent name.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4253
Quoting washingtonian115:
What is it Zack?.


It's Harrison
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Quoting weatherh98:


Why? Is something wrong


I'm getting banned later tonight...
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1661. 7544
Have a good night largo
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:
I would like to celebrate my final hours on this site in peace...


Why? Is something wrong
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1658. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


You realize you are the only one on here right now that knows my first name. And I know you will never tell.


You know they still talk about that young Wiry Guy that Lit Abraham's beard on Fire..

How it aint in the Old T, nor the Torah is beyond me.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
Quoting Patrap:
I just opened a cold fresh Fresca and it was F-l-a-t.

Is that a bad omen, like anthills and such?

I remember the last time I had fresca.
I have been looking everywhere for that drink!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is the deal about Names?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What is it Zack?.
Not even close
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Quoting Grothar:


You realize you are the only one on here right now that knows my first name. And I know you will never tell.

You're asking too much of me.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31914
1651. Patrap
Quoting jeffs713:

No, it just means you need more Fresca.


12.25 cases may not make the the L Storm me tinks at this rate.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's for me to know and you guys to find out...

LOL, no.

I've seen him post occasionally on Levi's status updates.


That is true..
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Quoting weatherh98:


Nope haha
What is it Zack?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16894
1648. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wasn't blank!


You realize you are the only one on here right now that knows my first name. And I know you will never tell.
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1646. Patrap
And Betty when you call me.

..you can call me Al...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127871
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Cory!


Nope haha
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Quoting reedzone:
Didn't know some of you knew my real name.. impressed!


More like kinda creepy reed.... ehem I mean Allan.
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Quoting Patrap:
I just opened a cold fresh Fresca and it was F-l-a-t.

Is that a bad omen, like anthills and such?

No, it just means you need more Fresca.
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1642. trey33
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You might want to wipe that off. May cause it to stop working.


I did, thanks! That was funny. Much better humor tonight than this afternoon.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


TAWX13 have you been stalking his profile? :P

That's for me to know and you guys to find out...

LOL, no.

I've seen him post occasionally on Levi's status updates.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31914
Quoting washingtonian115:
Daniel.Your in DENIAL.lol.



I feel so loved....
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Didn't know some of you knew my real name.. impressed!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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