Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q: What Time will we get Invest 96L
A. 2 AM
B. 8 AM
C. 2 PM
D. 8 PM
Q: What will Invest 96L peak as?

A. tropical Depression
B. tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

BB.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's why the latest surface map showed one low right?

Jeez Kori, get on top of things! :P


Interesting. Where did they place it?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q: What Time will we get Invest 96L
A. 2 AM
B. 8 AM
C. 2 PM
D. 8 PM
Q: What will Invest 96L peak as?

A. tropical Depression
B. tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane


B
B until the upper air pattern over the Gulf becomes more clear
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormChris for 21June12amGMT:
Its vector had changed from East at 19.1mph(30.7km/h) to ENEast at 24.9mph(40km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at ~50knots(58mph)93km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 997millibars to 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Chris's path...
YYT is SaintJohns,Newfoundland :: CVU is Corvo,Azores :: SMA is SantaMaria,Azores

The Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris
The Westernmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Chris's most recent position.

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Chris's 2 most recent positions to a point due south of Corvo's southernmost shore.
The SMA-dumbbell is the endpoint of the 20June6pmGMT straightline projection to a point due south of SantaMaria's southernmost shore connected to its nearest airport
On 21June12amGMT, TS.Chris was headed toward passage ~1mile to ~2kilometres south of CorvoIsland in ~1day9hours from now

Copy&paste yyt, cvu, sma-36.44n25.0178w, 39.5n58.0w-38.9n56.7w, 38.9n56.7w-38.3n54.7w, 38.3n54.7w-38.1n52.3w, 38.1n52.3w-38.2n50.2w, 38.2n50.2w-38.6n47.5w, 38.2n50.2w-39.65n31.114w, 39.67n31.114w-39.65n31.114w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting KoritheMan:


Have you seen the satellite imagery? There are two vorticity lobes competing for dominance. Thus, no low.

That's why the latest surface map showed one low right?

Jeez Kori, get on top of things! :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Q: What Time will we get Invest 96L
A. 2 AM
B. 8 AM
C. 2 PM
D. 8 PM
Q: What will Invest 96L peak as?

A. tropical Depression
B. tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
iknow we been saying this all day but maybe this gets a tag 96l at 11pm update we need something to digest into the models and why would they set up flight plan for tomorow if they didnt tag yet are they goin to wait for the last min .


Have you seen the satellite imagery? There are two vorticity lobes competing for dominance. Thus, no low.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uh-oh...we got in trouble.

*brings the discussion back to Chris*



Wow, they are really watching our topics... Didn't think the "name" topic would get us in trouble... Anyways, Chris looks amazing for the spot he's at and time of year.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uh-oh...we got in trouble.

*brings the discussion back to Chris*

Looks like a hurricane. Danny of 2003 was at this location or was south.
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Yikes Admin is lurking that's my Que guys...talk to yall later haha
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The evironment around the Yucatan peninsula is becoming more favorable for development. There is an upper level high and lower wind shear.



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Just for kicks...

Subtropical Storm One (1976):



Danny (1997)



Dolly (2008)



Just a few analogs I threw together based on the current setup and forecast upper air pattern.
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1726. 7544
iknow we been saying this all day but maybe this gets a tag 96l at 11pm update we need something to digest into the models and why would they set up flight plan for tomorow if they didnt tag yet are they goin to wait for the last min .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh-oh...we got in trouble.

*brings the discussion back to Chris*

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1724. Patrap
er, Hey Ralph..


Depth of the GOM 26C Isotherm



TCHP



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Quoting tropicfreak:


Can I call you Rob. I'm too lazy to type out Robert :P. Then again, I don't like being called Dan (short for my name, next one on the east pacific name list) so I wouldn't know what you prefered :P
Whatever's good man, I don't really have a preference hahaa.

Quoting Grothar:


You'll always be 09 to me.
09 it is Gro! :)
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1722. WunderPhotoAdmin (Admin)
Hello Bloggers,

Please remember to stay on topic. Also, please use the "flag" and "ignore user" buttons when you encounter a member who is not following the rules.

Thank you,
WunderBlogAdmin
Quoting weatherh98:


You live in prairieville with him?


NO but I do live in South Louisiana not terribly far from him...When I meant real world I mean I have actually texted and talked to him outside Wunderland hahah
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Quoting MississippiBoy:
whats ya'lls thinking on disturbance comeing into the gulf?


Really broad and unorganized, I suggest Levi's blpg
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey, where is Skyepony and Chicklit? I haven't seen them on here for days. I miss their blogs.

Both were on earlier.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1718. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Ed Norton comes to mind.

Watcha know?

1009MB Low



LOL!
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Me and Kori always said if a Strong TS/Cat 1 or 2 storm would threaten the Louisiana area we would want to go chasing...I want to test my instruments and take some obs from inside the storm...We never have gotten that storm so we could finally meet in person and chase but I have a good feeling about this year Kori...This might be our year lol

PS- This does not make us wish-casters only weather forecasters interested in taking our studies to the field ;)
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1716. Grothar
Hey, where is Skyepony and Chicklit? I haven't seen them on here for days. I miss their blogs.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Your one of my best friends in the real world you don't count lol


You live in prairieville with him?
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1714. Patrap
Ed Norton comes to mind.

Watcha know?

1009MB Low

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1713. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'll call you Barack.

My name's Robert btw. You guys on the blog should use that instead of "MH09"...seems easier.


You'll always be 09 to me.
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Quoting GainesvilleGator:
The NHC now has GOM disturbance at 30% - Orange Circle. What % would constitute an Invest?

Any percent. Sometimes none.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Lol so what you people do when he come you talk to him or ignore until the admin block him?
report, dislike, ignore.. in that order :)
then wait so very patiently.. it gets tough, but Patrap keeps it light for those seeking sanity ;)
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whats ya'lls thinking on disturbance comeing into the gulf?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1709. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
The NHC now has GOM disturbance at 30% - Orange Circle. What % would constitute an Invest?

There is no set percentage. An invest is usually declared when there is a discernible low-level center though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Yep, I'm Allan Reed! Catchy name, don't ya think?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I do.


Your one of my best friends in the real world you don't count lol
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The NHC now has GOM disturbance at 30% - Orange Circle. What % would constitute an Invest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'll call you Barack.

My name's Robert btw. You guys on the blog should use that instead of "MH09"...seems easier.


Can I call you Rob. I'm too lazy to type out Robert :P. Then again, I don't like being called Dan (short for my name, next one on the east pacific name list) so I wouldn't know what you prefered :P
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Quoting tropicfreak:


A lot taz.... JFV circumvented his ban not once, not twice but 3 times. We could have used your poofer taz!
Lol so what you people do when he come you talk to him or ignore until the admin block him?
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1702. JLPR2
Hm... as far as I know, only 3 persons here know my entire name, one is pretty active here, the other one not that much, the third one ha! haven't seen him in the site in awhile.
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1701. trey33
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOLOL, we have a winner.


Glad you went there. I got yelled at earlier about that stuff. Better crowd tonight though!
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Quoting tropicfreak:


A lot taz.... JFV circumvented his ban not once, not twice but 3 times. We could have used your poofer taz!



i no i email the admin has soon has i see jfv post on here
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1699. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'll call you Barack.

My name's Robert btw. You guys on the blog should use that instead of "MH09"...seems easier.
Its quite easy to find my name lol
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i think ThunderStruck2012 this got bannd so that name did not last long loll
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what i miss


A lot taz.... JFV circumvented his ban not once, not twice but 3 times. We could have used your poofer taz!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
No one knows my name! No one! ;)


I do.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what i miss
janiel is on uh we are learning each others names while looking at pre 96L. Chris just passed up beryl in ACE too
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Very obvious the shear over the LLC west of the keys. Every time a storm popped it was blown straight off.

The Yucatan low may not be a surface low yet...but it sure is maintaining some vigorous cold tops and expanding.

Very interesting as always.

I remember seeing upper level lows during transition that had several small vorticies at the surface but this is a bit different. Wouldn't doubt we play the which low is it game for another day or two...

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Quoting louisianaboy444:
No one knows my name! No one! ;)
I'll call you Barack.

My name's Robert btw. You guys on the blog should use that instead of "MH09"...seems easier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
did some one get banned
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1690. Patrap
Orleans parish


Coastal Flood Advisory

Statement as of 7:12 PM CDT on June 20, 2012

... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 7 am CDT
Saturday...

* coastal flooding... minor coastal flooding of less than one
foot expected.

* Timing... flooding will occur during each high tide cycle.
Highest tides will occur in the afternoon hours.

* Impacts... minor overwash of low lying roadways in the
immediate vicinity of the coast. Flooding will be less than
one foot.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1689. JLPR2
So what caused the "guess my name game"? XD
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.