Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting Levi32:
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be either. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.


AMSU data showed a shallow warm core at the time of genesis. Chris is a tropical cyclone.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting blsealevel:
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N82W TO 21N88W. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REGISTER A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SE WINDS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE AXIS GUSTING TO 25 KT. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N85W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 85W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.





Sounds like they are ready to tag an invest.
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1786. docrod
Quoting Levi32:
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be either. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.


OT

Meant to ask earlier ... did you see the Venus transit. Just curious, I got maybe a 30 second look late in the day in the FL Keys before the clouds moved back over the sun.
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Quoting Levi32:
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be either. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.


Honestly regardless of water temperature, those are just usual cases which are used by man to classify as minimum thresholds, nature has its own way of doing things that continues to amaze me. Chris "95L" deserved the name imo.
On another note, I would love to name Nor'easters in a similar fashion to what they do on the other-side of the pond. But as a warm core, in the Atlantic basin, it is Chris, and could pose threats to shipping lanes.
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Quoting Hurricanes4life:


92L by the azores right? post-season probably!

I doubt it. 92L didn't have enough persistant convection to be called a TS
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1783. Patrap
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using WaveWatch 3)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1782. Patrap

GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model: HYCOM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Minnesota city flood kills zoo animals, bear escapes

June 20 (Reuters) - Heavy rains pounded northern Minnesota on Wednesday, forcing the evacuation of dozens of homes, causing mudslides and sinkholes, and swamping a zoo where several animals died and a polar bear briefly escaped, officials said...
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Quoting Hurricanes4life:


92L by the azores right? post-season probably!


Problem is... It desinigrated like 30 minutes later.
Quoting Levi32:
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.


Don't they have to have tropical characteristics though? This one is prolly subtropical by now. I could be wrong but I recall someone saying once they upgrade a sts it's a hurricane either way
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Just set your filter to "Show Good", All the bad and negative comments go away.
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Quoting Levi32:
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be either. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.


Think this will be blown?


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
thx
Quoting Levi32:
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If they don't, maybe I will. Just for you, Taz. ;)



yep
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

that's still a ts but very close to hurricane status

I thought they weren't using the correct center for analysis? so they may be lower than he actually is!
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1774. Levi32
Chris is a great storm, but to be realistic he's over 22C water and it's getting colder. Theoretically "hurricanes" can exist at any water temperature if the air aloft is cold enough. Polar lows are arctic hurricanes, their own kind of "subtropical cyclone." If it's not over 26C or warmer water, you really can't call it tropical. It just isn't. The environment isn't tropical, therefore the storm can't be either. The question then becomes whether we should even bother designating non-tropical lows that are driven by (at least partially) convective processes instead of baroclinic ones. If we do, they really should not count in the season tropical cyclone tally.
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Quoting weatherh98:
Prettiest atl storm this year

IMO Beryl was but Chris looks fine too :)
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Maybe at 11:00pm??



if not 11pm then at post season
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Quoting weatherh98:
This is the third eye we have had this year. One storm wasn't named beryl almost got the designation and had a wind speed to back it up an now Chris....


92L by the azores right? post-season probably!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


20/2345 UTC 38.6N 47.5W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic

that's still a ts but very close to hurricane status
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Less than 1 hour for Chris's advisory to come out. I wonder if they'll upgrade him.
Prettiest atl storm this year
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Maybe at 11:00pm??
Quoting Tazmanian:




there alll ways post season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N82W TO 21N88W. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REGISTER A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SE WINDS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE AXIS GUSTING TO 25 KT. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N85W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 85W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.


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Quoting Tazmanian:




there alll ways post season


If they don't, maybe I will. Just for you, Taz. ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Best it has ever looked.

This is the third eye we have had this year. One storm wasn't named beryl almost got the designation and had a wind speed to back it up an now Chris....
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Less than 1 hour for Chris's advisory to come out. I wonder if they'll upgrade him.




there alll ways post season
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HGX has called their shot.



An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring drier air to most of Southeast Texas over the weekend. This will lead to hot and dry conditions with high temperatures nearing 100 degrees by late in the weekend. High temperatures may break 100 degrees early next week. Heat index values will approach dangerous levels near 105F or higher especially early next week. A broad and weak area of low pressure will persist over the southern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The system over the Gulf is expected to remain weak and the upper level ridge over the Southern Plains will keep the system from approaching southeast Texas.
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1761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Pretty sure the flight is for Friday.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST

AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W


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Best it has ever looked.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Less than 1 hour for Chris's advisory to come out. I wonder if they'll upgrade him.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uh-oh...we got in trouble.

*brings the discussion back to Chris*



Nice little eye
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Chris looks really good, I want to call him a hurricane, does anyone have some dvorak numbers?


20/2345 UTC 38.6N 47.5W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
I think the NHC should just be nice and let Chris be a hurricane for an advisory, he's been working so hard to clean himself up in spite of the conditions.

LOL.

I don't think it quite works that way.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Chris looks really good, I want to call him a hurricane, does anyone have some dvorak numbers?
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1754. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



isnt that further south than the gfs was showing the last run tia
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Interesting. Where did they place it?


SW Gulf.....or....GOM, I should say, LOL.
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1752. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WunderPhotoAdmin:
Hello Bloggers,

Please remember to stay on topic. Also, please use the "flag" and "ignore user" buttons when you encounter a member who is not following the rules.

Thank you,
WunderBlogAdmin


iam tying
sorry for hammer post
i removed it of my own free will

thanks
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1751. Patrap
WV
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Tropical Storm CHRIS will going in very cool water next 24 hours from now!! time is runnning out to be a hurricane
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I think the NHC should just be nice and let Chris be a hurricane for an advisory, he's been working so hard to clean himself up in spite of the conditions.
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Quoting MississippiBoy:
On disturbance what does the steering look like ?
That's the problem it's kinda iffy
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wow
Quoting Patrap:
er, Hey Ralph..


Depth of the GOM 26C Isotherm



TCHP



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lol
Quoting Tazmanian:



A

and

E CAT 5
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1745. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q: What Time will we get Invest 96L
A. 2 AM
B. 8 AM
C. 2 PM
D. 8 PM
Q: What will Invest 96L peak as?

A. tropical Depression
B. tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane



A

and

E CAT 5
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On disturbance what does the steering look like ?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Interesting. Where did they place it?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting 7544:
iknow we been saying this all day but maybe this gets a tag 96l at 11pm update we need something to digest into the models and why would they set up flight plan for tomorow if they didnt tag yet are they goin to wait for the last min .


Pretty sure the flight is for Friday.
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1740. Patrap
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins)GOES-13 Channel 4 (IR)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q: What Time will we get Invest 96L
A. 2 AM
B. 8 AM
C. 2 PM
D. 8 PM
Q: What will Invest 96L peak as?

A. tropical Depression
B. tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

BB.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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