Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

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Quoting emguy:


Hehe...I like you, so I hope this doesn't sound familiar to last night, but is the NAM trying to drive a low into a ridge again? Why the NAM is not reliable. The GFS and EURO seem to be nailing this down really well now...Florida...expect rain in the long term...and maybe a little something more if it develops. Secondary note...if this parks over the Gulf of Mexico for 5-6 days...goodbye abnormally warm seas surface temperature anomolies for this season. Sure, the gulf will be tropically warm as usual, but the temps WILL be cut down to size, SIGNIFICANTLY abating the risk of numerous monster storms in the Gulf this year. Development or not, this may have major impacts on the rest of the season for sure.


I do not think that your last sentence is very accurate you can still get a major hurricane in the Gulf, could the water cool off briefly sure it can. It will heat right back up in a few weeks. It would take major upwelling to cause what you are saying, which isn't very likely.
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2088. emguy
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Citing feedback issues on the GFS and Euro this is the official word from HPC anyway. Hope it helps. :)

YDAYS NHC/HPC COORDINATED
TRACK WHICH BRINGS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
AND INTO THE ATLC TO BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE IS MAINTAINED
FOR THIS EARLY PRELIM FCST.


I will say this...though not impossible...it is the first time I've ever heard of a convective feedback issue on the Euro. In fact...I actually was playfully wondering about comments in the NWS Miami Discussion, because they mentioned contamination in the GFS was contagious into the Euro. The Euro is a model held close to the chest by those guys...to prevent this contamination. That model is not initialized by the GFS like others are. Part of where my confidence in the models spikes when the Euro and GFS actually agree on something.
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6z GFS brings its first low off the east Florida coast by Monday and seems to close it off there and not in the gulf.

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Still at 30 for pre invest 96L
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Quoting Mamasteph:
Good Morning all..local mets. here in cental fla. giving both scenerios..either it get picked up by the trough..or sits and comes over Fla. by next Tuesday..I had surgery yesterday, and my sis said my gfs map was down?..So my question is what is the general concenus here?..I am in Flagler county so if it does form into 'something' ..we would get the tailend of it as it exits into the Atlantic..Thanks ...


Well floridians are like yelling Florida the texans are callin cat 2 Debby hitting them and its pretty flip flop for the rest of the gulf coast. Levi picked Texas solution because he doesn't think the trough can dig in deep enough
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Quoting Mamasteph:
Good Morning all..local mets. here in cental fla. giving both scenerios..either it get picked up by the trough..or sits and comes over Fla. by next Tuesday..I had surgery yesterday, and my sis said my gfs map was down?..So my question is what is the general concenus here?..I am in Flagler county so if it does form into 'something' ..we would get the tailend of it as it exits into the Atlantic..Thanks ...


Citing feedback issues on the GFS and Euro this is the official word from HPC anyway. Hope it helps. :)

YDAYS NHC/HPC COORDINATED
TRACK WHICH BRINGS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
AND INTO THE ATLC TO BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE IS MAINTAINED
FOR THIS EARLY PRELIM FCST.
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Good Morning all..local mets. here in cental fla. giving both scenerios..either it get picked up by the trough..or sits and comes over Fla. by next Tuesday..I had surgery yesterday, and my sis said my gfs map was down?..So my question is what is the general concenus here?..I am in Flagler county so if it does form into 'something' ..we would get the tailend of it as it exits into the Atlantic..Thanks ...
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If that image doesn't scream hurricane then I know Didley squat about meteorology.

I this Images isn't a hurricane, I'm going to go and cry.


It looks so good on the last frames
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Quoting emguy:


Ahhhh...I get it now :) You are right about that. Their timline is "progressive". I'd side more with the EURO. This low is not leaving for dadge any time fast!


Yeah I've been reading it's supposed to sit in the gulf for a while too.
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Quoting emguy:


Hehe...I like you, so I hope this doesn't sound familiar to last night, but is the NAM trying to drive a low into a ridge again? Why the NAM is not reliable. The GFS and EURO seem to be nailing this down really well now...Florida...expect rain in the long term...and maybe a little something more if it develops. Secondary note...if this parks over the Gulf of Mexico for 5-6 days...goodbye abnormally warm seas surface temperature anomolies for this season. Sure, the gulf will be tropically warm as usual, but the temps WILL be cut down to size, SIGNIFICANTLY abating the risk of numerous monster storms in the Gulf this year. Development or not, this may have major impacts on the rest of the season for sure.


Lol. I know it's the NAM. But it's 5a.m. So what the heck. :)
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2079. emguy
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


But they have their storm still over Florida on day 7. Guess that's why I was confused. :)



Ahhhh...I get it now :) You are right about that. Their timline is "progressive". I'd side more with the EURO. This low is not leaving for dadge any time fast!
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Quoting emguy:


This actually has a lot in common with the EURO based on what I saw.


But they have their storm still over Florida on day 7. Guess that's why I was confused. :)

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2077. emguy
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Bit of a SW turn this morning.



Hehe...I like you, so I hope this doesn't sound familiar to last night, but is the NAM trying to drive a low into a ridge again? Why the NAM is not reliable. The GFS and EURO seem to be nailing this down really well now...Florida...expect rain in the long term...and maybe a little something more if it develops. Secondary note...if this parks over the Gulf of Mexico for 5-6 days...goodbye abnormally warm seas surface temperature anomolies for this season. Sure, the gulf will be tropically warm as usual, but the temps WILL be cut down to size, SIGNIFICANTLY abating the risk of numerous monster storms in the Gulf this year. Development or not, this may have major impacts on the rest of the season for sure.
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2076. emguy
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
A visual? Looks strange to me after seeing the models. But their confidence isn't high on the evolution of the low right now.



This actually has a lot in common with the EURO based on what I saw.
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2075. emguy
Quoting canehater1:
The Models are unreliable because there is no defined
COC to initalize on. Once (or if) a COC is observed
then we'll see...Problem is COC may not form until
it is close to land....


Understand where you are coming from, but your comment is somewhat incorrect. Lots of good data going into the models from buoys and other land/seas based observations on this. Please read my earlier comment of it. Typically, I would agree with you if we had a deep cluster of thunderstorms trying to develop into something that doesn't have a low pressure center. However, this is the opposite...we have a low looking for favorable winds and thunderstoms. The Low is already trackable and in the global model data in it's current evolution.
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Bit of a SW turn this morning.

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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormChris for 21June6amGMT:
Its vector had changed from ENEast at 24.9mph(40km/h) to ENEast at 18.5mph(29.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at ~50knots(58mph)93km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Chris's path...
YYT SaintJohns,Newfoundland :: CVU Corvo,Azores :: SMA SantaMaria,Azores :: LRT Ploemeur,France

The Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris
The Westernmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Chris's most recent position.

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Chris's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The SMA-dumbbell is the endpoint of the 20June6pmGMT straightline projection to a point due south of SantaMaria's southernmost shore connected to its nearest airport
The CVU-dot is the endpoint of the 21June12amGMT straightline projection to a point due south of Corvo's southernmost shore connected to its nearest airport
On 21June6amGMT, TS.Chris was headed toward passage over Saint-Pierre-Quiberon in ~4days18hours from now

Copy&paste yyt, cvu-39.65n31.114w, sma-36.44n25.0178w, kef, lrt, 39.5n58.0w-38.9n56.7w, 38.9n56.7w-38.3n54.7w, 38.3n54.7w-38.1n52.3w, 38.1n52.3w-38.2n50.2w, 38.2n50.2w-38.6n47.5w, 38.6n47.5w-39.4n45.7w, 38.6n47.5w-47.51n3.153w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.................................good morning folks..here's the Tampa Bay area forecast..much like yesterday


Morning Largo. :)

Rather cool here this morning. It won't last. Lol.



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2071. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
2070. LargoFl
.................................good morning folks..here's the Tampa Bay area forecast..much like yesterday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting canehater1:
The Models are unreliable because there is no defined
COC to initalize on. Once (or if) a COC is observed
then we'll see...Problem is COC may not form until
it is close to land....


I agree. So everyone should keep an eye out.
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Well here's the "what" they think will cross Florida.

LARGE SCALE CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD WITH THE AMPLIFYING ERN CONUS
TROF THAT MAY START TO RETREAT A LITTLE BY DAY 7 THU.
INDIVIDUAL
MODELS STILL DIFFER AMONG THEMSELVES AND RUN TO RUN WITH EMBEDDED
DETAILS. FROM LATE TUE INTO THU THE 00Z GFS HAS THE MOST
AMPLIFIED ERN TROF COMPARED TO THE LATEST SOLN SPREAD... WITH
12Z/18Z GFS RUNS ALSO RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF AND SWD WITH
THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW. SO FAR SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE EVENTUALLY TENDED TO ADJUST AWAY FROM EXTREME IDEAS SO
AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND IS STILL THE FAVORED APPROACH.

THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIVERSITY IN POSSIBLE SOLNS WITH BROAD
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE SHORT RANGE.
THE TYPICALLY OVER-DEVELOPED CANADIAN TRACKS ITS SYSTEM INTO SRN
TX... 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNS BRING THEIR LOWS INTO NRN FL... AND THE
00Z GFS BRINGS A COUPLE FEATURES ACROSS FL INTO THE WRN ATLC. THE
00Z GFS SOLN IS SUSPECT GIVEN CONCENTRATED HVY QPF/PSBL FEEDBACK
THAT MAY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTING ITS SOLN NEAR THE WRN FL COAST IN
THE LATE SHORT RANGE/EARLY MEDR TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT IT IS
EASILY WITHIN THE CURRENT SOLN SPREAD... YDAYS NHC/HPC COORDINATED
TRACK WHICH BRINGS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
AND INTO THE ATLC TO BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE IS MAINTAINED
FOR THIS EARLY PRELIM FCST.

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The Models are unreliable because there is no defined
COC to initalize on. Once (or if) a COC is observed
then we'll see...Problem is COC may not form until
it is close to land....
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MARINE...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD
FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE MARINE FORECAST. THROUGH FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY STRENGTHENS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. EXPECT CONTINUED EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP
TO 6 FEET. AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO PUSH INTO ADVISORY RANGE OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME FURTHER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED TROPICAL LOW.
HAVE KEPT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TO REFLECT THIS RISK. FORTUNATELY...ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. 32

&&

N.O. Fcst discussion last night
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HPC Short range. Hope this will mean less flooding.

LOOKING ACROSS THE SOUTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF
COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOMALOUS...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD STAY OUT OVER
THE OPEN GULF...BUT SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

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Short range graphic

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A visual? Looks strange to me after seeing the models. But their confidence isn't high on the evolution of the low right now.

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2062. xcool
back to bed
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2061. xcool


from louisiana to Florida Something to keep an eye on
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Quoting emguy:


Looks like they are also hanging with a forecast of something swinging back at the NE Gulf too. However, their disco is hard to read...and non commital on what. Which is okay considering they likely have nothing more to look at than rain and marine perameters based on trends...they are too far south and east in Miami.


Yeah. They are not clear on what they would be moving east. Maybe not as NE as the models showed? But I will be glad for whoever this affects that it isn't something stronger. Let's hope not anyway.
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2059. emguy
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Would the intensity have anything to do with the track? Either way if they are over doing intensity GOOD!

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 25N85W AT 21/00Z...BUT THIS
IS NOT EVIDENT ON A 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH INSTEAD SHOWS A
TROUGH FROM NE YUCATAN TO W CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SHOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH OFF THE N COAST OF YUCATAN AND
MOVING INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. BY EARLY SAT...THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW POSITION NEAR 24N90W WITH AN
MSLP AROUND 1005 MB...WITH A SLOW DRIFT N INTO SUN. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW OVER THE WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS AND THE
FACT THAT UPPER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MINIMAL...CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE EASTERN
AND NE PORTIONS. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND SAT
UNFORTUNATELY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NE GULF BY LATE SUN DRAWING THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT LIKELY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
DEEPENS A NEW LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON...AHEAD OF THE
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH...REACHING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
STRENGTH BY MON NIGHT. THE NOGAPS FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUN...DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE NE GULF. THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFFLICTING THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE CONTAGIOUS AS THE ECMWF PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN THE LOW IN PLACE
OVER THE NE GULF. THE UKMET MEANWHILE HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING THIS NE TURN IS NOW INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
THE NW GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OF NE FLORIDA IN THE ATLC...ANDTHE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NE GULF...AND
INSTEAD FOLLOWS THE GEFS...ALTHOUGH CONTINUES THE GFS/ECMWF TREND
OF MOVING THE SURFACE FURTHER EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS
WILL REACH 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. FORECAST
SEAS ARE LOWER THE MWW3 GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIED TO THE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PRONE GFS... AND SEAS WILL REACH 10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW.


Looks like they are also hanging with a forecast of something swinging back at the NE Gulf too. However, their disco is hard to read...and non commital on what. Which is okay considering they likely have nothing more to look at than rain and marine perameters based on trends...they are too far south and east in Miami.
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 210836
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012

CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -50C TO -60C DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND DO NOT SUPPORT A
HIGHER INTENSITY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT. EVEN
IF CHRIS IS STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED...THE PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE
OVER SUB-22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD BE INHIBITING AN
EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
OCEAN SURFACE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/17...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT DECELERATES AND DUMBBELLS
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CUT
OFF SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS CHRIS BEING ABSORBED BY
THIS WEATHER FEATURE IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE NEW ENTITY
COMPLETING A CYCLONIC LOOP AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THIS SCENARIO...AND THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

DESPITE THE FACT THAT CHRIS IS MOVING OVER RATHER COOL WATERS...
A 0505 UTC AMSU PASSES STILL SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
MODERATE TO DEEP WARM CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WARM-CORE CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...IT COULD LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION
WHILE MOVING OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND BE DECLARED POST-TROPICAL.
SHOULD IT MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION LONGER...EITHER ITS INTERACTION
WITH A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND/OR ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW TO ITS WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 39.9N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 41.6N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 43.6N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1800Z 44.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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2057. gator23
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Nearing a cat. 2 hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa at 168hrs.


That looks like The big bend not Tampa
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
2056. emguy
Quoting JLPR2:



Yeah the track showed by the EURO is a classic June track.

If it materializes it would be the first normal track of the year.


Less some weebles and wobbles...this is something that we may expect based on what is going on here.

Just a quick footnote...having an invest designation is really great in the open Atlantic and/or parts of the Carribean. Good news with this one is we do have, and what the National Hurricane Center is also seeing/describing in the GoMex is a sharp low pressure area. They know this based on Buoys and ship data reported into the National Weather Service. Combined with the broad nature of this, there are land based observations as well. Point being is all of this information is going into the models already. The models are seeing this low already...without the invest designation...and due to broad nature, invest coordinates are not neccessary. The GFS and EURO are definately getting locked in, and they are seeing the evolution of this pretty good at this time.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right now I'm on the GFS/ECMWF camp.

The 00z ECMWF was very impressive. Nearly a major hurricane barreling into northern Florida in about a week.


Would the intensity have anything to do with the track? Either way if they are over doing intensity GOOD!

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 25N85W AT 21/00Z...BUT THIS
IS NOT EVIDENT ON A 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH INSTEAD SHOWS A
TROUGH FROM NE YUCATAN TO W CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SHOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH OFF THE N COAST OF YUCATAN AND
MOVING INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. BY EARLY SAT...THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW POSITION NEAR 24N90W WITH AN
MSLP AROUND 1005 MB...WITH A SLOW DRIFT N INTO SUN. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW OVER THE WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS AND THE
FACT THAT UPPER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MINIMAL...CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE EASTERN
AND NE PORTIONS. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND SAT
UNFORTUNATELY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NE GULF BY LATE SUN DRAWING THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT LIKELY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
DEEPENS A NEW LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON...AHEAD OF THE
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH...REACHING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
STRENGTH BY MON NIGHT. THE NOGAPS FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUN...DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE NE GULF. THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFFLICTING THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE CONTAGIOUS AS THE ECMWF PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN THE LOW IN PLACE
OVER THE NE GULF. THE UKMET MEANWHILE HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING THIS NE TURN IS NOW INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
THE NW GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OF NE FLORIDA IN THE ATLC...ANDTHE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NE GULF...AND
INSTEAD FOLLOWS THE GEFS...ALTHOUGH CONTINUES THE GFS/ECMWF TREND
OF MOVING THE SURFACE FURTHER EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS
WILL REACH 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. FORECAST
SEAS ARE LOWER THE MWW3 GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIED TO THE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PRONE GFS... AND SEAS WILL REACH 10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW.
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Quoting JLPR2:
And after seeing Chris's first visible of the day, I'm off.


Good night/morning all!
I'm out for now too. Later all/Good morning to the East Coast!
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Chris sure has impressed me





Wonder what big ol' Joe Bastardi has to say about this. Here he was yesterday...

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2052. JLPR2
And after seeing Chris's first visible of the day, I'm off.


Good night/morning all!
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Reason why Chris isn't getting a stronger intensity is cause of Dvorak satellite estimates. CIMSS's ADT puts it at a 45 knot storm, SSD's SAB puts it at 55 knots.
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2050. JLPR2
Quoting bigwes6844:
its getting lighter in the carribean! Its almost there! and check out the pacific to the left


What cracks me up is the little TS symbol way in the middle of nowhere. xD
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its getting lighter in the carribean! Its almost there! and check out the pacific to the left
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Quoting reedzone:
According to the NHC, this is a 60 mph. Tropical Storm "maybe stronger"

I'm pretty disappointed how they managed this storm which I believe became our first Hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. If they don't upgrade at 5 a.m. then they need to closely re-evaluate the storm at Post Season (December) and upgrade not only to a Hurricane but an earlier development.

"Hurricane" Chris (Tropical Storm per NHC)


I'm off to bed guys, have a goodnight.
very impressive storm indeed
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x
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2046. JLPR2
Quoting K8eCane:



I think em has a point about the climatology too



Yeah the track showed by the EURO is a classic June track.

If it materializes it would be the first normal track of the year.
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2045. K8eCane
Quoting JLPR2:


Give me a stronger low and I'll say watch the models. But yeah, I'll give you that, I missed the fact that a low has been identified, this being the case and assuming this info was fed to the models on the 00z runs, north Florida needs to watch this swirly mess closely.



I think em has a point about the climatology too
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2044. JLPR2
Quoting emguy:


We are looking at a defined and trackable low within a sharp yet broad circulation now. This is the one we track...It's pretty easy to follow, it just needs favorable winds and deep/sustainable thunderstorm development to occur now. That target is near 25N, 86W.


Give me a stronger low and I'll say watch the models. But yeah, I'll give you that, I missed the fact that a low has been identified, this being the case and assuming this info was fed to the models on the 00z runs, north Florida needs to watch this swirly mess closely.
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2043. K8eCane
Quoting emguy:


The answer is timeframe...At that time...they (GFS and EURO) were windshield wipering between Florida and Texas anyway, but in a very extended timeframe.

In comparison, we now have a defined low on the grid, and the timeframe has grown closer/tighter. Overall, global weather patterns around the US are better defined in the nearer term of 5-7 days when compared to 10. Since Texas is building a heat wave and these heat waves are hard to break down, accompanied by more reliable models such as the GFS and Euro showing a motion more toward Florida into a weakness, in a timeframe that is more reasonable/believable. This is the most likely solution that will occur. Its notable that this solution does not argue with climatology either. This has all appearances of a complex and confused eastern half of Gulf of Mexico June storm.



Thanks.I didnt realize that the GFS and EURO were the more reliable models either
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Levi maybe onto something!

i think so too!
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2041. emguy
Quoting JLPR2:


Nah, at least in my opinion all of these models runs are useless until a clear LLC forms. Once one forms and is initialized correctly then lets talk of where this possible storm could be heading.


We are looking at a defined and trackable low within a sharp yet broad circulation now. This is the one we track...It's pretty easy to follow, it just needs favorable winds and deep/sustainable thunderstorm development to occur now. That target is near 25N, 86W.
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2040. emguy
Quoting K8eCane:
But why are these model runs any more believable than the runs this past weekend that had it barrelling into Texas??


The answer is timeframe...At that time...they (GFS and EURO) were windshield wipering between Florida and Texas anyway, but in a very extended timeframe.

In comparison, we now have a defined low on the grid, and the timeframe has grown closer/tighter. Overall, global weather patterns around the US are better defined in the nearer term of 5-7 days when compared to 10. Since Texas is building a heat wave and these heat waves are hard to break down, accompanied by more reliable models such as the GFS and Euro showing a motion more toward Florida into a weakness, in a timeframe that is more reasonable/believable. This is the most likely solution that will occur. Its notable that this solution does not argue with climatology either. This has all appearances of a complex and confused eastern half of Gulf of Mexico June storm.
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2039. K8eCane
Quoting JLPR2:


Nah, at least in my opinion all of these models runs are useless until a clear LLC forms. Once one forms and is initialized correctly then lets talk of where this possible storm could be heading.



Thanks JL!
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