Two Atlantic disturbances to watch; Guchol hits Japan; extreme heat in Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.

North Atlantic Invest 95L headed out to sea
A well-organized low pressure system with a closed surface circulation but little heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 95L) is over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Canada. This storm doesn't have enough heavy thunderstorms to deserve a name, but has a 50% chance of doing so before hitting colder waters on Wednesday, according to NHC. 95L is headed northeast out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Guchol as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on June 19, 2012, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Guchol hits Japan
Tropical Storm Guchol made landfall in Japan's southern Wakayama prefecture near 9 UTC Tuesday morning. The Japan Times reports that the storm has injured five people, and 83,000 people have been evacuated. Guchol is the first June tropical cyclone to hit Japan since 2004. Tokyo recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 10:47pm local time (9:47 am EDT.) A wind gust of 74 mph was recorded at Shizuhama at 8:21 pm local time. The main threat from Guchol is heavy rain. The storm is expected to dump rains in excess of 400 mm (15.7") in the Tokai region, and 250 mm (9.8") inches near Tokyo. Japan is also watching Tropical Storm Talim, which is expected to pass along the length of the country Thursday and Friday. Talim's rains could cause considerable trouble, as they will fall on soils already saturated by the passage of Tropical Storm Guchol.

Intense heat in Colorado
One of the warmest days in Eastern Colorado history was observed Monday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Denver had a daily record high of 100°F, but Wray, near the Kansas-Nebraska border, reached 109°. This was just short of its all-time record (for any month) of 110°F set in July 1934, and just 5° shy of the all-time state of Colorado record of 114°F set at Las Animas and Sedgwick on July 25, 1952. Lamar in Southeast Colorado hit 108°F yesterday, just 3° short of its all-time record of 111°F set in July 1934. Sterling, the in the far Northeast part of the state, hit 108°F, which may be its all-time heat record. The intense heat yesterday was accompanied by some very dry air. The humidity in Broomfield, CO fell to 4% for more than six hours on Monday. The hot, dry weather made firefighting efforts difficult for the massive wildfire burning 15 miles west of Fort Collins, CO. This fire is the third largest and most destructive fire in Colorado history. Firefighters have achieved 50% containment of the blaze.

Jeff Masters

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Has anyone else noticed how the FL focus on the blog has moved from Miami to Tampa?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
Quoting JLPR2:


Ah c'mon Jose had better times. XD

Just before it was named.

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Miami NWS Discussion Update

UPDATE...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE PWAT UP OVER A FULL INCH FROM 12 HR AGO!
THE PWAT ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING YESTERDAY EVENING WAS AT A VERY LOW
0.91 INCHES, BUT IS NOW AT A MOIST 1.94 INCHES. GFS INITIALIZED
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS MOISTURE, WITH THE ECMWF TOO DRY
HERE THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF PWAT.

A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND LOWER
KEYS...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE SE GULF AND
SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED
WITH PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS EXISTS SE COAST ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND AREA WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
THIS MORNING.
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Quoting hurricaneben:


20 inches is definitely enough to cause dangerous floods, I don't quite think we'll reach that high in rainfall...more like 10-15 inches IMO but yeah isolated areas can certainly see higher. Fay all over again?
whew, even 10-15 inches will flood many area's around here,,downtown tampa..get the rowboats ready
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Quoting 7544:
morning all how many inches of rain could south fl really get from this thing gtia


Anywhere from 9 inches depending on location
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well apparently this:



qualifies as organized convection...so why doesn't this?



Ah c'mon Jose had better times. XD

Just before it was named.
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Quoting reedzone:


Not according to the SST map, it's about to hit a spot of 80 degrees (if you really want to believe that). This is the tail end of the Gulf Stream.
Thanks to the warm winter the Gulf stream is now warmer so early.I pointed out in February that the gulf stream will play a major role in the development in storms this year.And bang It help spawn Beryl and Alberto.Looks like it might help this storm get the upgrade it needs from the NHC.
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66. 7544
thanks largo morning all how many inches of rain could south fl really get from this thing gtia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855


It's over an eddy of cooler water in the gulf stream as it is right now...
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Quoting reedzone:


Not according to the SST map, it's about to hit a spot of 80 degrees (if you really want to believe that). This is the tail end of the Gulf Stream.
yes it has a lil while longer over the gulfstream then cooler waters, might get that name for a day or so
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SCAT from this morning

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Quoting 7544:
so its suppose to stall over south fla on wends and stick around for 2 days ?
nws says maybe thru the week with rains down there
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Quoting LargoFl:
..its headed towards cooler waters,might not get too strong anymore


Not according to the SST map, it's about to hit a spot of 80 degrees (if you really want to believe that). This is the tail end of the Gulf Stream.
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I think Jose will forever be a precedent for this blog's crusade on crappy looking storms.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well apparently this:



qualifies as organized convection...so why doesn't this?

Satan spawn=TS Jose

It just Needs a few more hours of this
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
It aint named until the NHC says so.

95L has been showing persistent convection for about 4 hours now, give it until 3pm and if it's still showing strong convection - they'll name it unless they feel otherwise about it.
..its headed towards cooler waters,might not get too strong anymore
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
.
...................HEY STORMTRACKER..whats the 5 day forcast for Orlando area?
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Quoting aspectre:
818 TropicalAnalystwx13: If they started advisories on TS Jose, they better start advisories on this thing or I'm going to be mad.

Why? Jose began in an area with a history of producing TropicalCyclones.
If Invest 95L were to become Chis, it'll be making history (as far as I'm aware).

Well apparently this:



qualifies as organized convection...so why doesn't this?

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818 TropicalAnalystwx13: If they started advisories on TS Jose, they better start advisories on this thing or I'm going to be mad.

Why? Jose began in an area with a history of producing TropicalCyclones.
If Invest 95L were to become Chis, it'll be making history (as far as I'm aware).
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.
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Quoting Levi32:
Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 19th, with Video


Thanks Levi...Great analysis!
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I'd keep a eye on the area around 17.5N,87.5W,sheers to high now,but as that area drifts north and stalls over central/eastern south GOM,sheer is forecast to be conducive in about 36-48hrs (in southern gom/nw carib),could then end up developing into a TD or weak TS and go into the west coast of fl or big bend area,other scenerio it goes west as the high builds over the plains,that would likely result in a hurricane headed towards tx/la,all depends on the strength,postion and timing of the forecast high presssure-my mini forecast.....ps,i expect a td to form and meander in the eastern/central gom and go no where,but should flood parts of fl with 5-10",isolated up to 15"
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It aint named until the NHC says so.

95L has been showing persistent convection for about 4 hours now, give it until 3pm and if it's still showing strong convection - they'll name it unless they feel otherwise about it.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:




Storms beginning to wrap around the center again, and have been persisting for a while now!
Maybe if we're lucky the NHC will surprise us and give it a renumber at either 2 p.m or 5 p.m
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
stormtracker your getting me excited with all this talk of rain for florida. we.. or at least i need it in the east tampa bay area, very hot and dry here for awhile.
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@@@,
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, not avoiding you; I just went back and saw your comment in the previous blog entry. I'm going out of town twice in the next two weeks; I'll be gone this Thursday through Tuesday, then I;m leaving again next Friday for a week. When are you coming here? (But I don't have a restaurant--though I wish I did.)
yeah,i'm going to be there from the 24th to the 29th.

,

?
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Subtropical Storm 95L is about to hit water temps of 25C... This may deepen convection a bit. Amazing to see warm temps this far to the north.
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Quoting RussianWinter:
Does anyone know the direction and speed of the mass of clouds in the Caribbean?
nnw semi quasi stationary
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Does anyone know the direction and speed of the mass of clouds in the Caribbean?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:




Storms beginning to wrap around the center again, and have been persisting for a while now!
poses no threat
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41. 7544
so its suppose to stall over south fla on wends and stick around for 2 days ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855




Storms beginning to wrap around the center again, and have been persisting for a while now!
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Quoting weatherforecast94:
Hey everyone,

It looks like we might get Tropical Storm Daniel soon!!


Thunderstorms have diminished over the past few hours but, I think it could build back. Here's how it looks.

I don't think it stands much chance to get classified today unless something chances. It's being impacted significantly be northerly wind shear and dry air. Dvorak T-numbers were 1.5 from SAB and TAFB last night, but have since dropped to 1.0 and 1.5, respectively. The NHC won't classify 95E as it is.
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Thank you, Dr. Masters for the new blog and thank you to all the bloggers who keep me from getting up and doing anything. Just say no to floods :)
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Hey everyone,

It looks like we might get Tropical Storm Daniel soon!!


Thunderstorms have diminished over the past few hours but, I think it could build back. Here's how it looks.
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Much longer update than yesterday.
Watching two areas for tropical development - 6/19/12
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Quoting Levi32:
Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 19th, with Video


Excellent work.
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maybe he can't see ya
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95L is beginning to enter the Gulf Stream. Sea Surface Temepratures underneath the disturbance have already increased to 25C from the 23C it was atop earlier.

One last chance.

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Quoting trunkmonkey:

You avoiding me?
Im gonna very wet next week!
No, not avoiding you; I just went back and saw your comment in the previous blog entry. I'm going out of town twice in the next two weeks; I'll be gone this Thursday through Tuesday, then I;m leaving again next Friday for a week. When are you coming here? (But I don't have a restaurant--though I wish I did.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting Neapolitan:
???
You can delete that comment now.I had edited mine.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting Neapolitan:
???

You avoiding me?
Im gonna very wet next week!
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Here are two links showing temps in the Gulf and the location of the Gulf eddy. Talk about very hot temps in the middle of that pool.

Link

Link
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Thanks Dr Masters. Here is my post from Angelas blog that I made just ahead of the bot announcing the new blog.

12z Surface analysis.


sattelite does not so any kinda circulation in the GOH

but anyway keep an eye on that area NE of Honduras something fishy is going on there watch for possible Low Level circulation reformation in that area
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I would say yes! I think the FL Penisula is in for one serious rain event over the next week. Don't shocked to see 20" of rain in many areas especially western FL.


20 inches is definitely enough to cause dangerous floods, I don't quite think we'll reach that high in rainfall...more like 10-15 inches IMO but yeah isolated areas can certainly see higher. Fay all over again?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Angela.
I like her too but this time it was DR master who wrote the blog.thanks Dr Masters.
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Thanks Jeff...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.