Two Atlantic disturbances to watch; Guchol hits Japan; extreme heat in Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.

North Atlantic Invest 95L headed out to sea
A well-organized low pressure system with a closed surface circulation but little heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 95L) is over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Canada. This storm doesn't have enough heavy thunderstorms to deserve a name, but has a 50% chance of doing so before hitting colder waters on Wednesday, according to NHC. 95L is headed northeast out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Guchol as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on June 19, 2012, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Guchol hits Japan
Tropical Storm Guchol made landfall in Japan's southern Wakayama prefecture near 9 UTC Tuesday morning. The Japan Times reports that the storm has injured five people, and 83,000 people have been evacuated. Guchol is the first June tropical cyclone to hit Japan since 2004. Tokyo recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 10:47pm local time (9:47 am EDT.) A wind gust of 74 mph was recorded at Shizuhama at 8:21 pm local time. The main threat from Guchol is heavy rain. The storm is expected to dump rains in excess of 400 mm (15.7") in the Tokai region, and 250 mm (9.8") inches near Tokyo. Japan is also watching Tropical Storm Talim, which is expected to pass along the length of the country Thursday and Friday. Talim's rains could cause considerable trouble, as they will fall on soils already saturated by the passage of Tropical Storm Guchol.

Intense heat in Colorado
One of the warmest days in Eastern Colorado history was observed Monday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Denver had a daily record high of 100°F, but Wray, near the Kansas-Nebraska border, reached 109°. This was just short of its all-time record (for any month) of 110°F set in July 1934, and just 5° shy of the all-time state of Colorado record of 114°F set at Las Animas and Sedgwick on July 25, 1952. Lamar in Southeast Colorado hit 108°F yesterday, just 3° short of its all-time record of 111°F set in July 1934. Sterling, the in the far Northeast part of the state, hit 108°F, which may be its all-time heat record. The intense heat yesterday was accompanied by some very dry air. The humidity in Broomfield, CO fell to 4% for more than six hours on Monday. The hot, dry weather made firefighting efforts difficult for the massive wildfire burning 15 miles west of Fort Collins, CO. This fire is the third largest and most destructive fire in Colorado history. Firefighters have achieved 50% containment of the blaze.

Jeff Masters

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One day all of us are going to crash the NHC site with all of our rapid refreshes...
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Hmmmm. Wonder why they lowered the temps and put a chance of rain back in by Monday? Oh well. Whatever the reason I'll take it! :)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting yoboi:
anyone in here from setex?


Inner Loop Houston here.
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Darn, the NHC didn't get the E-mail seems.

: )
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Gentlemen and ladies, start your F5 buttons again!


Whut, I thought Ladies go first.

It's not like any of the storms we are tracking went through RI.
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Quoting DookiePBC:


Don't forget a good car stereo. That adds 10-20 hp depending on how much bass it has!!


Oh, absolutely. So if the NHC issues a special TWO, it decreases the wind shear by 20%, and adds an extra 10% of PW to the area. It is very similar to someone putting one of those very loud exhausts onto their stock Honda civic that still has a stock intake.

(my apologies to anyone who has one of the cars described above)
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60% EPAC:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ALTHOUGH NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
NNNN
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Quoting Patrap:
I never poll on a Tuesday.


I never poll on Mon, Wed, or Fri. :)
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I'm so nervous!.
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95E down to 60%?
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263. yoboi
Quoting reedzone:


No, all graphs and estimates prove this is at least a Subtropical Storm. We'll know more what the NHC is thinking in a few minutes.


if NHC at 2 says non tropical might be last time they look at it.
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Gentlemen and ladies, start your F5 buttons again!
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
As you all know the models are just complete trash..got to agree with levi's tropical tibit


Yeah, he was calling for development in the GoM at or around June 23 before we had reached June 9. Looking to be a pretty likely scenario.
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Quoting jeffs713:


Bear in mind that the NHC applying a name immediately increases the wind speed, storm surge, CDO coverage and rainfall rates by approximately 15%. It is a very similar phenomena to adding chrome or yellow paint to your car (it immediately increases the performance of the vehicle the paint/chrome is applied to).


Don't forget a good car stereo. That adds 10-20 hp depending on how much bass it has!!

Still waiting on all that rain that's supposed to hit us hear in SE Florida. Though I can report that it is cloudy out. Not ready to go into a full blown DOOM-induced panic yet...but if this blob gets named I will be the first to do so!
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Quoting yoboi:
anyone in here from setex?


Kemah, here, watching the t-storm train just to the East.
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Quoting yoboi:
it looks like we have a non tropical low off the east coast...


No, all graphs and estimates prove this is at least a Subtropical Storm. We'll know more what the NHC is thinking in a few minutes.
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257. yoboi
it looks like we have a non tropical low off the east coast...
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Quoting yoboi:


yeah beaumont/orange area wondering how much rain they have had in that area for the past few days


Some were reporting last night from 2-4 inches. And it's been at least that much today and still coming down. Of course it's more and less in some locations.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting scottsvb:
:

60% GFS correct
40% ECMWF correct


Your input is always appreciated.
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246 pottery: Calabash tree says'''
"If Chris ever forms, it will be the Last for 2012"

Rats! I shoulda known I'd get a ridiculous answer on RidiculousDay.
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As you all know the models are just complete trash..got to agree with levi's tropical tibit
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Oh yes my new avatar got approved!

I liked the hammer time one....
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251. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Depends on where you mean. I'm from the Golden Triangle SETX. There are quite a few from the Houston area.


yeah beaumont/orange area wondering how much rain they have had in that area for the past few days
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240 WxGeekVA: Oh yes my new avatar got approved!

Cool. And about twice-to-thrice that size would be an adequate expression of impatience with the NHC.
Annoyance is never as much about the subject matter (or even the occasional repetition) as about being SHOUTed at.
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Just watched Levi's tidbit. Great stuff as usual. He's pretty confident that is something spins up it is a NW to W GOM storm.
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Quoting yoboi:
anyone in here from setex?


Depends on where you mean. I'm from the Golden Triangle SETX. There are quite a few from the Houston area.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting aspectre:
220 pottery: Sorry Pat. But you know how it is. Tuesday is my day for complying with Ridiculous Requests.

Cool. Could you ask your Calabash for the name of the last tropical cyclone of the season?

Calabash tree says'''

"If Chris ever forms, it will be the Last for 2012"

Sorry.....

:):))
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Sure is windy here in south florida. Gusts up to 25 miles per hour.
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243. yoboi
anyone in here from setex?
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220 pottery: Sorry Pat. But you know how it is. Tuesday is my day for complying with Ridiculous Requests.

Cool. Could you ask your Calabash for the name of the last tropical cyclone of the season?
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241. JLPR2
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Oh yes my new avatar got approved!


Ha! Great one!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Oh yes my new avatar got approved!
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Quoting Darren23:

C.
I'll take the consensus of what everyone else thinks :P
I will say C also and if not B
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's mostly been east of I-45


Yeah. I hope it spreads more y'alls way and you get a good soaking before the heat sets in.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
IMHO,

The percentages may be:

95L: The same or increased slightly: 50% or 60%
Caribbean AOI: The same: 10%
95E: The same or decreased slightly: 60% or 70%
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Complete opposite from last year, tropical moisture and airmass along the coast

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Quoting HurricaneOwen99:
Guess we have to see what the NHC does at 2.


I say back to code red 70%
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12z CMC




exits off the GA coast
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Guess we have to see what the NHC does at 2.
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Quoting jeffs713:


Bear in mind that the NHC applying a name immediately increases the wind speed, storm surge, CDO coverage and rainfall rates by approximately 15%. It is a very similar phenomena to adding chrome or yellow paint to your car (it immediately increases the performance of the vehicle the paint/chrome is applied to).

Brilliant !
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Been raining here for days. Nice off and on showers. It's pouring now. :)



It's mostly been east of I-45
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a flyer too quick mover


The wave, or Patrap ???
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Enjoy days like this as the sun is hidden, and water is around. It's days like these you need in the summer that keeps everything in check. Knocks the heat down, and wets the lands.



Been raining here for days. Nice off and on showers. It's pouring now. :)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting jeffs713:


Bear in mind that the NHC applying a name immediately increases the wind speed, storm surge, CDO coverage and rainfall rates by approximately 15%. It is a very similar phenomena to adding chrome or yellow paint to your car (it immediately increases the performance of the vehicle the paint/chrome is applied to).


LOL!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, not everybody; I personally remain un-annoyed. ;-) After all, a tropical cyclone spins its way across the waters whether it's named or not, just as they've done for millions of years, no? And my fascination with them is neither enhanced by the NHC giving it a name, nor is my awe diminished by the lack of one.

Just saying...


Bear in mind that the NHC applying a name immediately increases the wind speed, storm surge, CDO coverage and rainfall rates by approximately 15%. It is a very similar phenomena to adding chrome or yellow paint to your car (it immediately increases the performance of the vehicle the paint/chrome is applied to).
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings from 11N 61W, or close enough anyway..

Hot, bright and breezy yesterday and today again.
Makes a nice change.
Looks like that will change late tonight though.
Tropical wave just to the East is looking a little damp.

I was going to quote something that Patrap posted.
But I see that we have been instructed not to quote him.
Shucks.

Sorry Pat.
But you know how it is.Tuesday is my day for complying with Ridiculous Requests.
a flyer too quick mover
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Nice towers




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Quoting reedzone:
convection getting bigger and a tad deeper south of the eye.


It's very impressive to see this at 40N this early in the season.. Though the temps it's flirting with are 80 degrees at the moment.
Interesting is that those cloud tops are colder than anything Beryl had. I have yet to see red for a tropical system this season. Convection has just been to shallow.
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While Florida will be getting drenched over the next few days, the central East Coast will be uncomfortably toasty; here are some predicted NWS highs for a few selected cities for tomorrow and Thursday:

Washington: 96 / 99
Baltimore: 98 / 100
Philadelphia: 97 / 99
Trenton: 97 / 97
NYC: 97 / 97
Providence: 96 / 97
Boston: 101 / 99

But the real fun doesn't start for a few more days:

hot
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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