Two Atlantic disturbances to watch; Guchol hits Japan; extreme heat in Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012

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An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.

North Atlantic Invest 95L headed out to sea
A well-organized low pressure system with a closed surface circulation but little heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 95L) is over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Canada. This storm doesn't have enough heavy thunderstorms to deserve a name, but has a 50% chance of doing so before hitting colder waters on Wednesday, according to NHC. 95L is headed northeast out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Guchol as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on June 19, 2012, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Guchol hits Japan
Tropical Storm Guchol made landfall in Japan's southern Wakayama prefecture near 9 UTC Tuesday morning. The Japan Times reports that the storm has injured five people, and 83,000 people have been evacuated. Guchol is the first June tropical cyclone to hit Japan since 2004. Tokyo recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 10:47pm local time (9:47 am EDT.) A wind gust of 74 mph was recorded at Shizuhama at 8:21 pm local time. The main threat from Guchol is heavy rain. The storm is expected to dump rains in excess of 400 mm (15.7") in the Tokai region, and 250 mm (9.8") inches near Tokyo. Japan is also watching Tropical Storm Talim, which is expected to pass along the length of the country Thursday and Friday. Talim's rains could cause considerable trouble, as they will fall on soils already saturated by the passage of Tropical Storm Guchol.

Intense heat in Colorado
One of the warmest days in Eastern Colorado history was observed Monday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Denver had a daily record high of 100°F, but Wray, near the Kansas-Nebraska border, reached 109°. This was just short of its all-time record (for any month) of 110°F set in July 1934, and just 5° shy of the all-time state of Colorado record of 114°F set at Las Animas and Sedgwick on July 25, 1952. Lamar in Southeast Colorado hit 108°F yesterday, just 3° short of its all-time record of 111°F set in July 1934. Sterling, the in the far Northeast part of the state, hit 108°F, which may be its all-time heat record. The intense heat yesterday was accompanied by some very dry air. The humidity in Broomfield, CO fell to 4% for more than six hours on Monday. The hot, dry weather made firefighting efforts difficult for the massive wildfire burning 15 miles west of Fort Collins, CO. This fire is the third largest and most destructive fire in Colorado history. Firefighters have achieved 50% containment of the blaze.

Jeff Masters

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Next TWO will be a code yellow
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GOES-13 Atmospheric Imagery


These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

Hurricane Monitoring
Animated GOES Imagery
SRCC Compilation of Satellite Imagery
Ocean and Atmospheric Products

Caribbean Low Cloud Product

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Quoting ncstorm:

Post #250
Could you post the link to these maps? Thanks!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
95E down to 60%?


The center is exposed and the overall organization has deteriorated. It still has time to reorganize itself though.
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Quoting DookiePBC:
So it stays at 50%. Had this been named or upgraded to 70% or higher, I was prepared to alert those most at risk from this storm:

-Shipping interests
-Scientists at Danish research outposts on Greenland
-Icelandic folk dancers


Don't forget volcanologists preparing for Katla's next eruption.
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Perhaps Chris would be a more appropriate name for a GOM/Carib/CONUS storm, right NHC?
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

Relax, 2K actually has a point, no need to get over critical.  It's not a convective issue the GFS is having, but rather a placement in where the low sets up, and is being discounted as a low probability model right now.  If the low sets up farther east, you can bet rain will come further east with it.  That low is connected to the monsoonal trough and you can bet its going to bring copious amounts of moisture with it wherever it does develop.  Nothing is set is stone until we get a closed low to form.  


Thanks buddy!
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I wonder how big was NHC's biggest yellow circle...
today's touching Miami, Yucatan, almost Haiti and Honduras
must be close to the biggest.
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Relax guys, they'll name it if it keeps up the pace with convection, they always do. Right now it's been showing persistent convection since say.. 8am? The general guideline is 8 hours sustained convection, so if it still looks good by 4pm, we could see a renumber. Besides, read over the TWO again - instead of focusing on the 50%, read the part that it has become a little better organized. They're aware of everything we're seeing, they are just being cautious for good reason. It's rare to get a storm that far north this early, they don't want to name it and then for it to die 2 hours later like Jose did.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24965
Quoting yoboi:
the season is a bust lol


Great comment and way to bring value to this blog.
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

17:45 UTC Viz

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What a glorious sight!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11908
Development issues aside, that rain is really starting to flow into South Florida. For now, it's a blessing in disguise and will reduce rain deficits, and, replenish Lake-O. That will be welcome after things dry up again later in the year.
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Quoting DookiePBC:
So it stays at 50%. Had this been named or upgraded to 70% or higher, I was prepared to alert those most at risk from this storm:

-Shipping interests
-Scientists at Danish research outposts on Greenland
-Icelandic folk dancers



and the fish along the way
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 12z GFS finally manages to keep everything together in the Gulf with a single low pressure system, developing into a weak TS as it moves into Florida.


Yeah but nobody seems to get way this is happening instead they would rather attack me instead of looking at the reason for which I have posted several times yesterday.

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So it stays at 50%. Had this been named or upgraded to 70% or higher, I was prepared to alert those most at risk from this storm:

-Shipping interests
-Scientists at Danish research outposts on Greenland
-Icelandic folk dancers

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Shut up about Jose!!!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5130
Quoting jeffs713:


More like:
"NHC's way of saying 'It's not you, it's me' to 95L"
lol true.
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12Z GFS still forecasting 20" of rain for Western FL over the next 8 days. Truely amazing set up occuring for FL rainfall wise.



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300. jpsb
Quoting jascott1967:


Kemah, here, watching the t-storm train just to the East.
San Leon here so far only one brief shower maybe 1/4" at most. Been teasing rain for a few days, maybe we will get a good shower later today.
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So they name storms like Jose, but do not up the chances of this system, which clearly looks better than it did this morning?
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Quoting Patrap:
3 twos?

Kewl

And one quote. I'm still thinking there will be one more person posting it, and one more quoting it.
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Ameister12: It's always these kinds of storms that gets everybody annoyed at the NHC.

Not me. What gets my goat is when ya know that the NHC is keeping close watch over a system, and ya hafta keep calling it "the blob (with a general location description following)" cuz they won't Invest it.
Ya can tell afterwards that they've been watching closely on the 2nd ATCF: they add 2to4days worth of data for dates previous to the ones on the 1st ATCF report.
Sometimes they just dump up to 5days worth of data on the 1st ATCF. That's when ya know they've been watching really really closely.
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Interesting to note the NHC did not say NON-TROPICAL... they said LOW PRESSURE. Still, very disappointed.. They are leaving out one fascinating storm.
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The 12z GFS finally manages to keep everything together in the Gulf with a single low pressure system, developing into a weak TS as it moves into Florida.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24965
Quoting reedzone:
NHC way of saying... It's over for 95L
I think so too.
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Unchanged TWO~(God bless those who try and endure the B&M'ing that is about to occur)

They even brought Franklin on for guidance on compiling it.

Can't argue with what they came up with...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go watch Levi's video and see why the GFS is being unrealistic.


No offense to Levi32 but he has been wrong on this system this whole time. I think the point again the Levi32 and others are missing is that a weakness between 2 ridges of high pressure is developing over FL and the eastern Gulf as a trough moves toward the mid Atlantic later this week.

GFS Sunday night. This appears to be TS Chris.


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Quoting reedzone:
NHC way of saying... It's over for 95L


More like:
"NHC's way of saying 'It's not you, it's me' to 95L"
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
ARRRGH!!!!!!


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED IN EXTENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
Its opportunities on being named are going down.
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Quoting Patrap:


Anyone interested in volunteering for portlight this Season, feel free to contact presslord or myself or leave a note in the portlight blog or wu-mail.

Thanx


Just in case someone may not have read back a few pages. :)
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Well there we have it folks. The PROS at the NHC aren't thinking much of 95L, so I guess we need to keep calm and carry on.
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NHC way of saying... It's over for 95L
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
As you all know the models are just complete trash..got to agree with levi's tropical tibit

Models are directly responsible for the increase in accuracy of NHC predictions over the last 20 years. This increase in accuracy has also resulted in an increase in lead times. Also, Levi quotes the models when it suits his purposes. Just FYI.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Interesting note - if you look down at Lake Maricaibo in Venezuela, you can see the sun reflecting off the lake as it passes noon there.
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3 twos?

Kewl
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Only kept it at 50%? I'm not sure I agree..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24965
ARRRGH!!!!!!


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED IN EXTENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
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NO CHANGE AT ALL
soo upsetting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED IN EXTENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24965
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED IN EXTENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
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277. txjac
Quoting jeffs713:
I'm guessing the 2pm TWO will be posted at least 4 times, and quoted twice.


Live in Tomball, work in Jersey Village.



Live on the west side of Houston and work on the southwest side of Houston

Hello to all my Texas neighbors!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Your input is always appreciated.


Thanks, my degree in atmospheric science comes in handy but I'm wrong at times.. if I knew the future, I would of won the lottery many times :)

I think the GFS is correct with a redevelopment of a LLC near the main moisture field Friday night into Saturday and movement towards Florida with the trough. Things can change..but that's my best call right now.
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I'm guessing the 2pm TWO will be posted at least 4 times, and quoted twice.

Quoting yoboi:
anyone in here from setex?

Live in Tomball, work in Jersey Village.
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One day all of us are going to crash the NHC site with all of our rapid refreshes...
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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