Typhoon Guchol approaches southern Japan; 95L no threat to U.S.

By: Angela Fritz , 7:45 PM GMT on June 18, 2012

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Typhoon Guchol is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130mph. Guchol is on a path to southern Japan, where it is expected to make landfall Tuesday evening. The typhoon is moving north-northeast at 20 mph, and has been weakening, a trend that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center thinks will continue. Guchol's eye is completely clouded over, and the heavy thunderstorms on the west side of the typhoon have weakened, possibly due to an increase in wind shear from the west. Both Guchol and Talim, a tropical storm in the South China Sea, are drenched in tropical moisture. The elements that prevent Guchol from maintaining its strength are increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperature.


Figure 1. High resolution, true color satellite imagery from MODIS of Typhoon Guchol captured today, June 18th, at 12:45 am EDT.

Forecast for Guchol
Guchol is forecast to weaken further as it continues its track northeast toward Japan. Sea surface temperature will decrease as the typhoon moves north out of favorable water, and wind shear is expected to continue to increase. Guchol will probably start to become non-tropical as it makes landfall near Kyoto. However, tropical storm conditions, heavy rain and gusty winds will likely affect a large portion of Japan through Wednesday. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts that up to 16 inches of rain (40 cm) is possible from Guchol, and so flash flooding and landslides are a potential hazard from the storm.

North Atlantic Invest 95L

An area of thunderstorms in the North Atlantic now has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, according to the National Hurricane Center. 95L originally spun up as a non-tropical disturbance, but is starting to gain tropical characteristics. It's possible that, if 95L gains enough strength, it will be characterized as subtropical. This system poses no threat to the U.S. or Canada—models agree that 95L will track east away from North America, and will likely remain weak should it develop.


Figure 2. North Atlantic invest 95L as of 2pm EDT on June 18th.

Angela

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857. aspectre
3:33 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Moved to NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
856. stillwaiting
3:22 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
I'd keep a eye on the area around 17.5N,87.5W,sheers to high now,but as that area drifts north and stalls over central/eastern south GOM,sheer is forecast to be conducive in about 36-48hrs (in southern gom/nw carib),could then end up developing into a TD or weak TS and go into the west coast of fl or big bend area,other scenerio it goes west as the high builds over the plains,that would likely result in a hurricane headed towards tx/la,all depends on the strength,postion and timing of the forecast high presssure-my mini forecast
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
855. gordydunnot
2:58 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Good one Cybrteddy at least we try to have a since of humor down here. If you don't your gonna have a short life expectancy here.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
854. Darren23
2:58 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
How long has that burst of convection for 95L been around? If it has only been there for about 2-4 hours, I would wait for another few hours for the convection to persist, to make sure that it's not just a random burst.
Member Since: June 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
853. hurricaneben
2:57 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Can South Florida see serious flooding from this rainfall event? I think the Keys may be hit very hard too.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 421 Comments: 679
852. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
851. Tropicsweatherpr
2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
12z Surface Analysis places the low just east of Belize.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14557
850. weathermanwannabe
2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Here is today's ENSO Update from the Aussies: Currently Neutral but still modelling towards El Nino at some point. For now, expect the sheer to continue to decrease in the Atlantic and Caribbean as usual this time of the year going into July and the start of the Cape Verde season in August.

Tropical Pacific warming continues
Issued on Tuesday 19 June | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Although climate indicators remain at neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels, the tropical Pacific continues to slowly warm. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this warming trend will continue over the coming months, with the majority of the models indicating the tropical Pacific will approach or possibly exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of winter. No climate models favour a return to La Niña during the remainder of 2012.

Large parts of eastern Australia are usually, but not always, drier than normal in winter and spring during El Niño events.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The Bureau’s climate model indicates a possibility of a weak positive IOD event developing during winter or spring.

Next update expected by 3 July 2012 | print version

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
849. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:54 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54836
848. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:54 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
They are not upgrading the Epac 95E ?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
847. LargoFl
2:54 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
<--- Still under coffee coma..will respond after I mo cup.

: )
on my 4th cup lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40952
846. CybrTeddy
2:54 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Dat may be Fla thinking, but hey, watts new here?


Well, is it new here? Us Floridians might have to put that one to a vote..

But it would probably have to be recounted.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
845. kipperedherring
2:54 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
It matters not when or If the NHC names a system..esp one thats only a threat to Shipping lanes at best.


Re-lax..have a Fresca.


Life is short.
I like Fresca!
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 212
844. LargoFl
2:53 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting gordydunnot:
Florida rules when it comes to weather catastrophes. As evidenced by our insurance premiums. So yes we are a bit paranoid done here weather wise and then some.
boy you got THAT right
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40952
843. LargoFl
2:53 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Here it comes Largo!
i dunno, local mets still have it at 40-50 percent chance..we'll see weds or thurs what it turns out to be, probably going to be like we had here a couple of weeks ago,if we get 5 inches im happy
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40952
842. gordydunnot
2:53 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Florida rules when it comes to weather catastrophes. As evidenced by our insurance premiums. So yes we are a bit paranoid done here weather wise and then some.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
841. all4hurricanes
2:53 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Is the NHC just taking they're sweet time to decide or did the 11am update come out and Chris still isn't called?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2374
840. Patrap
2:51 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
<--- Still under coffee coma..will respond after I mo cup.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
839. StormTracker2K
2:51 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
It matters not when or If the NHC names a system..esp one thats only a threat to Shipping lanes at best.


Re-lax..have a Fresca.


Life is short.


Nice! Good Morning Pat!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
838. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:50 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought it was when the Doc's on vacation is when we get development?

It is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32521
837. Patrap
2:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought it was when the Doc's on vacation is when we get development?


Dat may be Fla thinking, but hey, watts new here?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
836. Joe21
2:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Good morning what is the latest update on the carribean
n system look at satelitte imgery it looks like the system and convection to the east.
Member Since: June 17, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
835. CybrTeddy
2:48 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Seems Doc may be on Vacation, so expect NO development.

If Angela pops us a new Entry, then we know.


I thought it was when the Doc's on vacation is when we get development?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
834. gordydunnot
2:48 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
See Patrap is smart enough not to use the F word when describing a mid Atlantic storm.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
833. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:48 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Seems Doc may be on Vacation, so expect NO development.

If Angela pops us a new Entry, then we know.

You've got that backwards...We're all doomed when Dr. Masters goes on vacation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32521
832. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:47 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Just keep it going...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32521
831. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Seems Doc may be on Vacation, so expect NO development.

If Angela pops us a new Entry, then we know.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
830. washingtonian115
2:47 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting DookiePBC:


We have long memories here. I still can't get over TS Bonnie going right over us in 2010. Sustained winds of up to 7 mph were measured, causing an empty milk container to fall out of my recycling bin. Plus, my driveway got slightly wet!
Sustained winds of 7mph?.I've had winds stronger than that just last week blowing hear.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
829. StormTracker2K
2:46 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................they got Florida like a candy cane


Here it comes Largo!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
828. allancalderini
2:42 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting DookiePBC:


We have long memories here. I still can't get over TS Bonnie going right over us in 2010. Sustained winds of up to 7 mph were measured, causing an empty milk container to fall out of my recycling bin. Plus, my driveway got slightly wet!
Lol really?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4454
827. allancalderini
2:42 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
Good God NHC just name the storm!! IR looks more impressive each frame....

NEWEST FRAMES!

Rainbow IR


Visible
Oh come on NHC just upgrade it please.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4454
826. Patrap
2:41 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
It matters not when or If the NHC names a system..esp one thats only a threat to Shipping lanes at best.


Re-lax..have a Fresca.


Life is short.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
825. DookiePBC
2:41 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting cyclonekid:
This blog won't let that Tropical Storm go will they? ;)


We have long memories here. I still can't get over TS Bonnie going right over us in 2010. Sustained winds of up to 7 mph were measured, causing an empty milk container to fall out of my recycling bin. Plus, my driveway got slightly wet!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
824. reedzone
2:39 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Good God NHC just name the storm!! IR looks more impressive each frame....

NEWEST FRAMES!

Rainbow IR


Visible
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
823. cheaterwon
2:38 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Everything in life isn't always driven by science or intelligent reasoning, sometimes its just common sense.



Wouldn't common sense be intelligent reasoning. If it's not than it would be common un-sense or just a happy accident.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
822. washingtonian115
2:38 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
NHC hear our cries!!!.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
821. cyclonekid
2:36 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If they started advisories on TS Jose, they better start advisories on this thing or I'm going to be mad.
This blog won't let that Tropical Storm go will they? ;)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
820. trunkmonkey
2:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
You can feel free to disagree with Scott, but you should know that about 20,000 solar physicists and climatologists disagree with you. However, if you can direct us to the online archive holding your published articles regarding this matter, we'd love to read them. We can be persuaded... ;-)
hey Im coming to fla sunday want to visit your restaurant staying in naples will be there in for you a week bringing supplies. With
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
819. LargoFl
2:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND NEXT FEW DAYS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, COMBINED WITH A LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL LEAD
TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THE MIAMI-DADE COAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEGINNING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS CONTINUE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK COULD EVEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40952
818. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:34 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
If they started advisories on TS Jose, they better start advisories on this thing or I'm going to be mad.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32521
817. ILwthrfan
2:33 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Though SST are not any higher in general throughout the Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico one this is very noticeably different from last year.


June 17th, 2011






June 17th, 2012



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
816. jeffs713
2:33 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
It could get a renumber later this afternoon through tonight.It has a nice burst of convection neat the center.

Yep, hence why I said it has a chance. It is a pretty narrow window to hit, but just based on its current presentation and history, I'd say its 50/50.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
815. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40952
814. washingtonian115
2:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:
LOL. Hey... I'm not always downcasting. I did say it has a chance, but it is a fleeting chance. I think the wave thingy in the W. Caribbean has a better shot now, though.

(and even if I am a downcaster, at least I back up what I say with data, and admit when I'm wrong, like I was with Beryl)
It could get a renumber later this afternoon through tonight.It has a nice burst of convection near the center.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
813. Chucktown
2:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


...which is why if you read further, I suggested using an objective measure of extreme weather, such as the Climate Extremes Index. Such a measure has nothing to do with people's social media habits, nor population density.

Using anecdotal evidence from such social media outlets would be almost as unscientific as one person's supposed anecdotal "correlation."


Everything in life isn't always driven by science or intelligent reasoning, sometimes its just common sense.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
812. LargoFl
2:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N98W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE
SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF TO
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF WED AS AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE S
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU THEN DRIFT NW TO
NEAR 24N93W BY LATE SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE E GULF
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40952
811. cheaterwon
2:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Here is a good camera of the nuclear site with Guchol bearing down.
Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
810. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Since Knabb is napping still so is the NHC and the ATCF is not upgrading anything so no TD 4E nor TS or STS Chris for 11 AM
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
809. luvtogolf
2:27 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


There will be a ridge over TX though. Just not the Death ridge as last year. It almost as if the moisture is going to get trapped over FL and the SE US and just set for several days as it interacts with a upper trough.


And that ridge should push the storm (if it develops) into Southern Texas or Northern Mexico.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1118
808. jeffs713
2:26 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Jeff stop being a DOWNCASTER :).
LOL. Hey... I'm not always downcasting. I did say it has a chance, but it is a fleeting chance. I think the wave thingy in the W. Caribbean has a better shot now, though.

(and even if I am a downcaster, at least I back up what I say with data, and admit when I'm wrong, like I was with Beryl)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
807. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:25 PM GMT on June 19, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................they got Florida like a candy cane


funny
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.