Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters

Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas

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12Z GFS back to 2 lows in Gulf with one near Key West.

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983. wxmod
Prediction:
Wimpish Guchol will head harmlessly out to sea. Tokyo and Fukushima, AOK
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12Z GFS Wednesday morning. Is showing deep tropical moisture flowing north up from S FL. A big time heavy rain event appears to be shaping up across FL as it is very rare to have a "monsoonal trough" set up over the area.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys although the Low has been relocated to the GOH on surface map the surface obs show that the low with its circulation is at 15.5N 81.0W and that is near the bulk of the convection I would not be surprised if it relocats under the convection anyway surface obs don't really show any circulation in the GOH


Very true wunderkid. Most of the vorticity is in the sw caribbean which is low level and at best the GOH low is a mid-level spin.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you heard something?
or just guessing?

I think it could become chris if it takes the further south tracks that that models are presenting.

Other than that, no shot.


Guessing. It looks like a TS on the visible images.
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95L looks good.Why hasn't the NHC up graded this to the red code?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Quoting cyclonekid:
As I see it, 95L seems to be one of those storms that gets extremely close to becoming a (sub)tropical storm, but never does because of frontal features. Although, it has a decent chance to become detached from the front(s), sea surface temperatures are kinda low (22C-24C) when it comes to development. This is only my opinion though. Like some other members here, I keep saying to look in the NW Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico for development of our next tropical depression/storm.

Those sea surface temps are plenty warm enough to support a subtropical cyclone, which is what we're looking at.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




that has more than 60% chance. not 30%

I agree. I would give it a 50/60% chance.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
As I see it, 95L seems to be one of those storms that gets extremely close to becoming a (sub)tropical storm, but never does because of frontal features. Although, it has a decent chance to become detached from the front(s), sea surface temperatures are kinda low (22C-24C) when it comes to development. This is only my opinion though. Like some other members here, I keep saying to look in the NW Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico for development of our next tropical depression/storm.

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180550
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 814 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012/

..DRY DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...

THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY INTO REST OF THE WEEK A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
CWA FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE
2 INCHES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE LATER FORECAST MODELS
THEN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COULD BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY ABOUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT COMING UP FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like a re-number is in the cards for 95L.


you heard something?
or just guessing?

I think it could become chris if it takes the further south tracks that that models are presenting.

Other than that, no shot.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




that has more than 60% chance. not 30%
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
.
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Looks like everybody from Mexico, to TX, to Florida up the east coast are gonna get a storm later this week, enjoy!
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I'm surprised more people aren't talking about invest 95L.

GFS phase analysis via FSU site shows that the cyclone is already shallow warm core:

Link

This is supported by the recent burst of convection over the center:



In my opinion, it looks like it has a decent shot at briefly being classified as a subtropical cyclone. To have the letter C storm by mid-June would be crazy. All named storms would be subtropical in nature though.

Here is a better look at the GFS phase forecast, which clearly shows that it thinks 95L is warm core now, and will be warm core until the 23rd of June. I doubt 95L will last that long though. Nonetheless, according to the 06Z GFS, 95L may transition to a symmetric warm core system by tomorrow:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like a re-number is in the cards for 95L.
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Behind The Yellow Tape
Rescuers responding to possible shark bite on Ocean Isle Beach
Monday, June 18, 2012 at 11:33 by F. T. Norton
Emergency crews are in the area of East Fourth Street in Ocean Isle Beach on a report of a child possibly bitten by a shark, according to Brunswick County 911.

No further information was immediately available.

The incident has not yet been confirmed as a shark bite, according to dispatch.

Updates will be posted as they become available.


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Quoting LargoFl:

Oh you know, just your average 128 mph sustained winds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
Invests have been declared before the nhc puts out percentage
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why I think we should get a yellow circle on it at 2PM EDT, lol.

We need model runs!


As Progressive pulse said earlier the models are all over the place and like ncstorm said we may have 2 lows competing in the Gulf.
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Quoting LargoFl:


glitch.
i hope
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Hey guys although the Low has been relocated to the GOH on surface map the surface obs show that the low with its circulation is at 15.5N 81.0W and that is near the bulk of the convection I would not be surprised if it relocats under the convection anyway surface obs don't really show any circulation in the GOH
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What would be steering the AOI to the NE up the east coast (that a few of the models are picking up on)? A trough? Ridge building in?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
I'm a lurker but... is it just me, or is 95L actually looking fairly impressive? Well, in comparison to last night, that's for sure.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I'm thinking we won't get an invest from this until the NHC starts drawing their colored circles around this region.
think your right there, NHC says no tropical formation in the next 48 hours,now wens or thurs this might change
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Quoting Levi32:


I have a 13-hour work day today so no, but tomorrow I likely will.


Thanks. Doesnt it seem like the monsoonal trough is setting up farther east as dry air over the western gulf and BOC separate the caribbean disturbance from the moisture in the EPAC.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I'm thinking we won't get an invest from this until the NHC starts drawing their colored circles around this region.

Which is why I think we should get a yellow circle on it at 2PM EDT, lol.

We need model runs!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1109 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES BUILD OVER E GULF TODAY. WEAK LOW PRES MOVE
OFF YUCATAN INTO S CENTRAL GULF WED THEN DRIFT INTO SW GULF THU
AND FRI AS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES FROM NW CARIBBEAN INTO SE GULF.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm expecting Invest 96L before the day is up.



I'm thinking we won't get an invest from this until the NHC starts drawing their colored circles around this region.
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Quoting VR46L:
This last couple of weeks must be absolutely devastating for ardent Climate Change believers. Temperatures down and very little drought around.


If you actually believe such a thing and are not just trying to troll, then it strongly suggests that you do not understand the basic differences between weather and climate. There is an over-abundance of sources available for you to remedy this.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
are you going to do a Tropical Tidbits today??
Comment #933 addresses this.
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Quoting weatherbro:


Hey I'm just going by what the experts say.


And who is this? NWS in Melbourne doesn't say that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

TUE/WED...TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
SLOWLY EXTEND OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC SEABOARD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
A LOCAL CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY STABLE BRISK ONSHORE WINDS.
ISOLD PRECIP BEGINNING EARLY WED WILL BE ASCD WITH A FEW LOW
TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE. COT`D STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE
WL KEEP A RATHER LOW RANGE OF TEMPS WITH HIGHER DAYTIME READINGS
WELL INLAND. POPS WL BEING A SLOW UPWARD CREEP BY WED FROM THE S
AS HIGHER MOISTURE ASCD WITH A MONSOONAL TROUGH EDGES NWD TOWARD
THE REGION.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's a nice video of the haboob that moved through parts of Phoenix on Saturday:



Was wondering if one was gonna be out there that day
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Keep wishing for that as it is not going to happen.


Hey I'm just going by what the experts say.
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Here's a nice video of the haboob that moved through parts of Phoenix on Saturday:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, in that visible satellite loop, it appears there is a bit of turning beginning to occur in the Gulf of Honduras? A mid-level low I assume?


Yes that whole area has a bit of mid-level turning. It's a monsoon low.

Got work now. Back later.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting VR46L:


Both most of the South East US and the British Isles got out of drought recently which is cause for optimism .

I also find it interesting that the web page you directed me to heading is called , (Unofficial) Record-breaking temperature across the Globe .
Yes. It's a page created and compiled by a noted ACC/AGW "skeptic" (and WU forum member), Dr. Ryan Maue (hence the name). It's "unofficial", as it's a private page unaffiliated with any official national or international weather organization.
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Quoting weatherbro:


Yes...But that will only affect the Western GOM. A ridge in conjunction with a cut-off low around the Bahamas will only spell subsidence for Florida until perhaps next week. It appears Texas is gonna get a lot of rain from what could be TS Chris!


lol, I'll buy that for a dollar!
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Quoting Levi32:
Culprit low looks like it is sitting just off the coast of Nicaragua. A trough extends a long ways northeast but the anchor is much farther southwest than one might think.




Levi, in that visible satellite loop, it appears there is a bit of turning beginning to occur in the Gulf of Honduras? A mid-level low I assume?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
Quoting stormpetrol:


Shear is continuing to drop to favorable levels over the AOI in the W Caribbean.



850mb Vort remaining reasonably strong.



More low convergence than previously.



wide spread strong convection. Imo this AOI has "good potential" for development.


Hmmm, shall we expect 96L in the near future?
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


The trough is predicted to move north into the Gulf starting on Wednesday.


Yes...But that will only affect the Western GOM. A ridge in conjunction with a cut-off low around the Bahamas will only spell subsidence for Florida until perhaps next week. It appears Texas is gonna get a lot of rain from what could be TS Chris!
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:)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm expecting Invest 96L before the day is up.

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I'm expecting Invest 96L before the day is up.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
are you going to do a Tropical Tidbits today??
Quoting Levi32:


The problem is that the more strung out the moisture field is, the less likely development will occur anywhere.
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..Anchor's aweigh?
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Culprit low looks like it is sitting just off the coast of Nicaragua. A trough extends a long ways northeast but the anchor is much farther southwest than one might think.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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