Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters

Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That still makes absolutely no sense, how could a single closed isobar low the size of South Florida beat a large, broad monsoonal low. I'm discounting the GFS solution for the time being, it seems unrealistic and overestimates the strength of a FL low.


It takes this area near honduras north to the SE GULF in 60 to 72 hours. Look at the GFS closely and you can see the vort near Honduras slide NNE toward FL.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That still makes absolutely no sense, how could a single closed isobar low the size of South Florida beat a large, broad monsoonal low? I'm discounting the GFS solution for the time being, it seems unrealistic and overestimates the strength of a FL low.


Yes thats barely a tropical depression anyway. needs another isobar to close
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Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
i see two tropical waves on this map!!


Why does the NOAA put the low in the GOH when the surface analysis/obs have it near Nicaragua/Honduras border.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Why?


Nuttin supposed to go to western gulf
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.
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Quoting weatherh98:
The BOC low appears to lose to the florida low.. slightly elongated though


That still makes absolutely no sense, how could a single closed isobar low the size of South Florida beat a large, broad monsoonal low? I'm discounting the GFS solution for the time being, it seems unrealistic and overestimates the strength of a FL low.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23599
Yep, looks like what appears to be Subtropical Storm Chris developing north-northeast of Bermuda. Should expect classification in the next 5 hours if the organization persists.
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WOW. Look at this and it is only out 108hrs. 3" to 5" of rain across most of FL between Wednesday & Friday.



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1025. ncstorm
Updated map..1500 UTC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14569
June 18th Anomaly Map

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Show the watl of the gfs to see the entire atlantic
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Quoting RitaEvac:
This is gonna get us banned

Why?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16432
The BOC low appears to lose to the florida low.. slightly elongated though
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS now developes a TD west of FL on Friday. Jedkins you see this.



That's not a TD on that map. One loosely closed isobar does not indicate a tropical cyclone.
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Look at the RGB in motion at NHC, and the two Buoy reports in the SW Caribbean and it really does look as if something is spinning up off the Coast on northern Honduras.
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As of the latest Ocean Prediction Center's update, Invest 95L's pressure has dropped 1 millibar to 1004 millibars and the winds remain at 40 knots, 45 mph. The system is moving towards the Northeast at 10 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31508
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Should start getting some robust waves soon with Ern & Cntrl Atlantic development possibilities.
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1015. LargoFl
.......................this picture was taken by NASA on the planet Mecury...Mickey Mouse was here..LOLOLOL...pretty neat pic huh......
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12Z GFS now developes a TD west of FL on Friday. Jedkins you see this.

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2 count em 1, 2, closed lows in the gulf with fairly low pressures in 96 hours
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31508
This is gonna get us banned

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I find it rather odd that we've had so many of these hybrid/shallow warm core systems recently. Remember how many we had that last year that formed from fronts as well.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That for sure will be bumped to 60% at 2 PM.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14049
Quoting weatherh98:


Look at 95ls vorticity


Yea I saw that. Pretty interesting..
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On the morning run of the GFS it showed 1009 millibar low off of the coast of Africa at the end of the run.Needs to be more consistent though.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look how far north the monsoon trough is in Africa.



Supress that SAL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why? It has several days to do something, see the below image.


No its speeding NE into cooler waters. However when I checked the models its suppose to slow down quite a bit.
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12Z GFS has 1008 milibar low WSW of Tampa by Thursday night and is attached by a monsoon trough over C FL.

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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Look at 95ls vorticity
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Quoting VR46L:
I just tend to accept official records just on the principle that anyone can create a web page, and can bend statistics to suit themselves but thats just my opinion
I suppose that's true; look no further than WUWT as proof. But Dr. Maue is an actual meteorologist who is unofficially compiling information from official sources. The numbers he shows can be independently verified (I know, because I've checked).
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31508
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
btw did they tag W Carib system 96L yet


Not yet. It needs to become a little bit more organized.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why? It has several days to do something, see the below image.


Correct, indications are that it will begin to slow down. If 92L in May made a run at become a S-TS even farther north, this does too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23599
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
btw did they tag W Carib system 96L yet
Nope.
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Thursday afternoon FL is basically covered by this tropical moisture.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
btw did they tag W Carib system 96L yet


not yet
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


It needs to develop today/tonight or it wont develop. However, it looks like it has made a lot of progress in deattaching itself from the front. I would put its odds of developing at 50% at 2pm.

Why? It has several days to do something, see the below image.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31508
I think they should tag something down in the Caribbean an invest, just so the models can be run and we might actually have a better consensus for once.

Also, as previously mentioned, 95L might be going sub-tropical soon - the models are showing that 95L will slow it's forward speed significantly, and the opportunity for development will exist.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23599
This has almost completely detached from the front
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I'm surprised more people aren't talking about invest 95L.

GFS phase analysis via FSU site shows that the cyclone is already shallow warm core:

Link

This is supported by the recent burst of convection over the center:



In my opinion, it looks like it has a decent shot at briefly being classified as a subtropical cyclone. To have the letter C storm by mid-June would be crazy. All named storms would be subtropical in nature though.

Here is a better look at the GFS phase forecast, which clearly shows that it thinks 95L is warm core now, and will be warm core until the 23rd of June. I doubt 95L will last that long though. Nonetheless, according to the 06Z GFS, 95L may transition to a symmetric warm core system by tomorrow:



I needs to develop today/tonight or it wont develop. However, it looks like it has made a lot of progress in deattaching itself from the front. I would put its odds of developing at 50% at 2pm.
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btw did they tag W Carib system 96L yet
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why I think we should get a yellow circle on it at 2PM EDT, lol.

We need model runs!


especially because if this forms it could be a potential threat to anywhere on the Gulf coast
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985. VR46L
Quoting ScottLincoln:


If you actually believe such a thing and are not just trying to troll, then it strongly suggests that you do not understand the basic differences between weather and climate. There is an over-abundance of sources available for you to remedy this.


I do apologize If I came over as trolling as you can see a couple of pages back I was the first person to state that 95l had been increased to 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm.Which as far as I am concerned should be proof that I am not a troll.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes. It's a page created and compiled by a noted ACC/AGW "skeptic" (and WU forum member), Dr. Ryan Maue (hence the name). It's "unofficial", as it's a private page unaffiliated with any official national or international weather organization.



I just tend to accept official records just on the principle that anyone can create a web page, and can bend statistics to suit themselves but thats just my opinion
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12Z GFS back to 2 lows in Gulf with one near Key West.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.