Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters

Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas

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NHC sure that north Atlantic disturbance is not a sts? That vort map and the winds BDawx just reported sounds like that of a storm system.
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Quoting nigel20:

LOL...what's up, Grothar?


Hello, Nigel. Just enjoying a great day. Weather here is nice and breezy.
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Quoting BDAwx:
wind just got super crazy here in Bermuda, its been howling for almost an hour now! Commissioner's Point was recently reporting winds sustained at 52mph gusting to 63mph at 260ft. BWS reporting 33mph sustained gusting to 52mph.

Wow...stay safe.
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Quoting Grothar:


The NOGAPS, GFS, and the GROTHAR.

LOL...what's up, Grothar?
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Quoting Grothar:


The NOGAPS, GFS, and the GROTHAR.


Thank you Grothar!

216 hours Euro
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
127. BDAwx
wind just got super crazy here in Bermuda, its been howling for almost an hour now! Commissioner's Point was recently reporting winds sustained at 52mph gusting to 63mph at 260ft. BWS reporting 33mph sustained gusting to 52mph.
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Quoting ncstorm:
the 12Z Euro--two lows in the gulf still..I wonder what other model was depicting the two lows in the gulf..hmmmm



The NOGAPS, GFS, and the GROTHAR.
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XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
33.11N/65.71W
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Weather Underground Forecast

Sunday, June 17, 2012.

While tropical cyclone development is not anticipated in the tropical Atlantic Ocean on Sunday, areas of active weather will continue in parts of the Caribbean Sea, Central America, and Caribbean Islands. In the northern Caribbean, a trough of low pressure in the jet stream will extend from the western Atlantic Ocean to Cuba and Hispaniola. Moisture and energy streaming across the northern islands will maintain light to moderate rain showers and chances of thunderstorms in Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. To the south, a tropical wave from the eastern Caribbean Sea will move into the central basin on Sunday. This feature combined with the monsoon trough extending through the southwestern Caribbean Sea and across Costa Rica will create scattered showers and possible thunderstorms from Nicaragua through Panama and eastward into the central basin. Meanwhile, moisture fuels more moderate, scattered rain and thunderstorm activity from Yucatan Peninsula through Guatemala.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36654
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36654
LPA and a SFC Trof...


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the 12Z Euro--two lows in the gulf still..I wonder what other model was depicting the two lows in the gulf..hmmmm

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

JTWC said it went through an EWRC yesterday, which would mean you were right, but microwave imagery was never really convincing and the eye never became cloud filled or anything, so it didn't really weaken during the supposed process.

Looking a little less organized over the past few frames. Eye seems to be filling with clouds.

It'll start falling apart really fast soon.
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That monsoonal gyre looks like it may be the source of whatever we get. I have a feeling this is going to end up being a little of "everybody was right" with this one... can easily see a scenario where a disturbance develops from the gyre, moves into the NW Car / BoH area, crosses to BoC where it spins up, then gets pulled north to TX area, then east along the Gulf coast. I'm pretty sure there's at least one TC track out there in the climatology that would match such a scenario... and likely early in the season at that.
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Quoting Walshy:
Now what is that rule of thumb again? If it does not develop by the time it's in the eastern Caribbean, it may attempt to do so in the western Caribbean...

Thats the John Hope axiom.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Meanwhile, decent little storm on the other side of the world.


JTWC said it went through an EWRC yesterday, which would mean you were right, but microwave imagery was never really convincing and the eye never became cloud filled or anything, so it didn't really weaken during the supposed process.

Looking a little less organized over the past few frames. Eye seems to be filling with clouds.
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Things not looking to good for Haiti, and the rain. Hope things die down to there south.
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Meanwhile, decent little storm on the other side of the world.

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Now what is that rule of thumb again? If it does not develop by the time it's in the eastern Caribbean, it may attempt to do so in the western Caribbean...

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Sounds like the impacts will be a result of both disturbances, and that's what he's combining.

U realize that a lot of this afternoon's blow up is because of the tail end of the trough, right?

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FLARING UP OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SW
PORTION OF THE BASIN.


Right.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Actually, the entire 2:05 TWD is pretty interesting...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 8N41W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AFRICAN DUST IS SEEN ON
VIS SATELLITE PICTURE AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM UW-CIMSS ON
THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SW
PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 8N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
AT 08N25W TO 8N37W THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL WAVE AT 8N43W TO
6N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF
ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W TO 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 25N94W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS MAINLY BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR ATLANTA GA
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NE GULF WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROUGH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS TONIGHT. FRESH ELY WINDS
ARE SEEN PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS NEAR THE COAST OF
YUCATAN DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. SW WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EPAC MONSOON TROUGH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
ENTERS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN
CONTINUES NW TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SW GULF AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FLARING UP OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH SE WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N74W TO 15N76W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRES IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE LOW PRES WILL
SPREAD WWD OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT ALSO INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THESE FEATURES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
NEAR 32N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORT A 1010 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED NEAR 31N65W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRES
THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW PRES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES N-NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALSO NOTED
WITHIN AROUND 400 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER DIFFLUENT
IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 1027 HIGH PRES
LOCATED NEAR 31N30W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
CAN BE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER MAURITANIA IN W AFRICA HAS A RIDGE
ENVELOPING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR
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XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
15.55N/73.75W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why did he combine 95E and the remnants of Carlotta? They're two different disturbances.
Sounds like the impacts will be a result of both disturbances, and that's what he's combining.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kind of surprised there has been no mention of the tropical wave yet.

U realize that a lot of this afternoon's blow up is because of the tail end of the trough, right?

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FLARING UP OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SW
PORTION OF THE BASIN.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, that would be one of the ghost storms the NOGAPS loves to spin up. We're not talking about that one though, we're talking about the one forecast for this week. :)


Im through with it..I bow down to the experts..you guys are absolutely right!! now its a ghost storm when the Doc posted that earlier this week??..okay..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
Quoting WxGeekVA:



Strengths
-
-
-
-
-
NONE LOL

Now thats what u called Silly!!! :)
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Well, it's obvious this discussion is getting no where, so bitmap can believe what he thinks happened, NCstorm can believe what he thinks happened, and me and Hurricanes101 will continue to believe what actually happened. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting ncstorm:


thats not correct..


That is what happened. I remembered guys even dissing the nogaps around that time. That was also the time I misunderstood the topic of a discussion that was taking place and I said that I don't expect anything other than a monsoonal system in the western Caribbean that stresses out the blog.
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Quoting ncstorm:


The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea.


Yes, that would be one of the ghost storms the NOGAPS loves to spin up. We're not talking about that one though, we're talking about the one forecast for this week. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, lol, look at the produced date. It was made June 12, which was 5 days ago.

Nooooo!!! NO !..four and a half..There is still half of today left..lololol
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Quoting ncstorm:


TW13 said it not me..300 hours I believe?? Im through with this discussion as it was drawn out last time..go back and read the earlier blogs from this week and see the good Dr. Master state that the Nogaps was the only model predicting development..its in PRINT!!


The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. -Dr. Masters

I believe he said that for two blogs and then the GFS jumped on the idea

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
Im not who I was before. :)
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Quoting Bitmap7:


What actually happened was that the nogaps first showed a system developing in the western Caribbean. After that the gfs and the other models jumped on with development in the western Caribbean this week. However the gfs was the first to change its mind and developed the system in the BOC instead (after the western Caribbean disturbance split over the Yucatan if I remember correctly), after which the other models followed along.


thats not correct..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found this online.



NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Analysis and Prediction System)
Run by: FNMOC
Forecasts: Anal to 144hrs, in 12hr increments
Frequency: Twice a day (00z and 12z)
Resolution: 40km

Strengths

Weaknesses
- Slow to fill mature lows
- Underforecasts and slow to deepen ocean lows
- Not consistent in placement of surface lows
- Underforecasts leeside cyclogenesis
- Merges complex lows into single systems – deeper system wins
- Slow to deepen surface lows south of the jet stream
- Not good with explosive cyclogenesis
- Sea level pressure over high terrain suspect
- Generates tropical systems in extended forecast (72+hrs)
- Forecasts tropical circulation too large
- Slow in transitioning tropical systems to extra-tropical
- Underforecasts re-deepening extra-tropical lows
- Moves short waves too fast in zonal flow
- Forecasts lows north of the jet stream too deep and highs south of the jet stream too high
Poorly forecasts sea level pressure over ice covered regions



Strengths
-
-
-
-
-
NONE LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting ncstorm:


Yes it was..now the blog dosent remember? It was over two pages of people clowning the NOGAPs and then Dr. Masters came the next blog mentioning it!! I should know because I am the only who posts it.


What actually happened was that the nogaps first showed a system developing in the western Caribbean. After that the gfs and the other models jumped on with development in the western Caribbean this week. However the gfs was the first to change its outlook and developed the system in the BOC instead (after the western Caribbean disturbance split over the Yucatan if I remember correctly), after which the other models followed along.
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Quoting ncstorm:


TW13 said it not me..300 hours I believe?? Im through with this discussion as it was drawn out last time..go back and read the earlier blogs from this week and see the good Dr. Master state that the Nogaps was the only model predicting development..its in PRINT!!


GFS showed this system 300 hours out, whether it was unlikely or not at the time, that is relevant to this discussion and you are choosing to cast it aside to make your argument

GFS was the 1st forecast model to develop anything in the BOC, that is fact
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


LMAO so you are not counting the longer range models to verify your statement?



TW13 said it not me..300 hours I believe?? Im through with this discussion as it was drawn out last time..go back and read the earlier blogs from this week and see the good Dr. Master state that the Nogaps was the only model predicting development..its in PRINT!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Really?

Jed is absolutely right, something can not form in a ridge; all of the other models show a ridge near Florida that will keep it further west...NOGAPS is out to lunch as usual.

Exactly! Btw whats funny nc...nogaps is a silly model cause it doesnt know what a ridge is!
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To understand the model scenario,one must look for "consensus" among them.

Each play a different role as they all have errors in the grids naturally.


AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Introduction

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics. Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.

As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.

BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: . The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.



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Quoting ncstorm:


Yes it was..now the blog dosent remember? It was over two pages of people clowning the NOGAPs and then Dr. Masters came the next blog mentioning it!! I should know because I am the only who posts it.

That's not true. The GFS showed the system in early-June, well before the NOGAPS even showed anything. Heck, the NOGAPS didn't even go out far enough.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting ncstorm:


Yes, really! For you all to be so young, now you dont remember? The GFS was posting that run back in May..that dont count..LOL..


LMAO so you are not counting the longer range models to verify your statement?

You cant selectively pick out information, ignore other information and then use it to verify a claim and expect people to just accept it...you sound like a politician when you do that lol
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.
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Found this online.

NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Analysis and Prediction System)
Run by: FNMOC
Forecasts: Anal to 144hrs, in 12hr increments
Frequency: Twice a day (00z and 12z)
Resolution: 40km

Strengths

Weaknesses
- Slow to fill mature lows
- Underforecasts and slow to deepen ocean lows
- Not consistent in placement of surface lows
- Underforecasts leeside cyclogenesis
- Merges complex lows into single systems %u2013 deeper system wins
- Slow to deepen surface lows south of the jet stream
- Not good with explosive cyclogenesis
- Sea level pressure over high terrain suspect
- Generates tropical systems in extended forecast (72 hrs)
- Forecasts tropical circulation too large
- Slow in transitioning tropical systems to extra-tropical
- Underforecasts re-deepening extra-tropical lows
- Moves short waves too fast in zonal flow
- Forecasts lows north of the jet stream too deep and highs south of the jet stream too high
Poorly forecasts sea level pressure over ice covered regions
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting ncstorm:


Yes it was..now the blog dosent remember? It was over two pages of people clowning the NOGAPs and then Dr. Masters came the next blog mentioning it!! I should know because I am the only who posts it.


GFS had something developing in the BOC 10 days ago, sorry you are wrong on this one
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh really? The NOGAPS was the first one to pick up the system when it goes out 144 hours, and the GFS had it over 300 hours out?


Yes, really! For you all to be so young, now you dont remember? The GFS was posting that run back in May..that dont count..LOL..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14249
Also the cmc is silly too...the most reliable model is the GFS it pick up the boc system first!
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Lol how can something form in a ridge...jed is right the nogaps is a silly model lol


Same way you can appear here with a new handle

Wasn't it Btwtx before?

: )
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.