Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters

Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Guchol's eye is pretty much gone.

If I were to give it an intensity estimate, I would probably say Guchol is probably a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3 right now.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Hey Levi.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Now that we've had a change of government, I think I'll try to get somebody to put the radar back up on the BS Met Office website... that would be ultra cool...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then whatever is contaminating it contaminated the GFS as well, and as I previously mentioned the HWRF during Carlotta showed this happening as well. The HWRF received a significant upgrade and is now able to see in much higher resolution than the other models - it was accurate saying that Carlotta would go where it went and that it would defiy the NHC predictions of intensity and attempt to become a major hurricane. It was also accurate in the intensity of Beryl. This is the 18z HWRF from yesterday, as I don't have a more recent update this is what it was showing.


The HWRF's resolution does decrease outside the inner nest, from 9km to 27km, and the boundary conditions are supplied to the model by the GFS.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

My bad.

18z GFS 850-200mb level. As you can tell, that is why I'm not too optimistic as to strength anything beyond 40mph.

I doubt it would be tropical and would have a hard time consolidating past a low pressure area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Here is a link to that latest CMC run showing a storm out of the Bahama, skirting Florida, and moving up towards the Carolinas.

Link

It's a very complex situation out there at the moment and sheer is not favorable at the moment in that region. Models gonna have a tough time reaching any consensus on this possibility.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys what did WunderBlogAdmin tell you guys this is a weather blog olny so post like 260 and 275 sould be posted in your own blogs has they are off topic and sould be posted in your owns blogs and not here on the main weather blog one day you find end up being bannd for posting off topic photos and youtubs that dos not go with this weather blog


this giveing you guys a warning you guys been warned time after time and still he lets you get a way with it well one day you end up with a 24hr bannd or may be even a 4 day bannd from the blog


so i would be care full on what you post in here


Are you the CYBER POLICE?
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


And that's why I don't use the minus feature
It happens every now and again... I turn a page and my filter freaks out. It's working again now, after a couple refreshes.

Quoting windshear1993:
what website is this on?
http://www.meteo.an/Img_Sat.asp
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why use 500-850 mb?

My bad.

18z GFS 850-200mb level. As you can tell, that is why I'm not too optimistic as to strength anything beyond 40mph.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting washingtonian115:
Fat blob.
Post 405.I'm visiting Nova Scotia then!!!


*lol* It's a wonderful place to visit! (Just pick your weather forecasts and you might luck in)

Now, down here in the Virgin Islands, I've got a very close eye on what's happening here in the tropics.



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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
18Z
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421. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I wish that big blob south of the Dominican Republic would move NE and over me. But I guess wishing doesn't cut it.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 172331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting winter123:
Is anyone else watching the LLC near Bermuda? It looks like the makings of a STS but not quite coming together right.
May not have time. It looks like it's booking it to the N / NE... trying to remember how far back we have look in the model archives to see when / how this storm was forecast. I vaguely recall some discussion of a storm off the Carolinas oh... maybe 8 - 10 days ago? Before we started talking about the BoC....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what website is this on?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
My filter settings are freaking out again... :o(


And that's why I don't use the minus feature
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS 850-500mb shear at 60hrs.

Why use 500-850 mb?
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Quoting Grothar:



Hey, I'm always nice to you!!! :)
Lol.I'm referring to the blob in the caribbean :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17091
Quoting winter123:
Is anyone else watching the LLC near Bermuda? It looks like the makings of a STS but not quite coming together right.

We r watching it.
It's non tropical at the moment
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My filter settings are freaking out again... :o(
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18z GFS 850-500mb shear at 60hrs.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting washingtonian115:
Fat blob.



Hey, I'm always nice to you!!! :)
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Actually shear has steadily been decreasing in the W/C Caribbean.
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Is anyone else watching the LLC near Bermuda? It looks like the makings of a STS but not quite coming together right.
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Quoting Grothar:
Fat blob.
Post 405.I'm visiting Nova Scotia then!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17091
Hmmm... Nice imagery from Curacao, and because of its location, beautifully centred to show the Caribbean and Antilles...
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I suppose this is off topic but still, I think it's weather related, of sorts.

I can remember (dating myself here) when the "poor kids" in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland brought lobster sandwiches and the "rich kids" brought peanut butter sandwiches to school.

Nowadays (and I do love this one) when a Nor'Easter blows that way, the lobster get tossed out of the ocean and the locals are down there with their green trash bags just scooping the lobster up. Fill up their freezers and no need for a license if they are on shore!

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then whatever is contaminating it contaminated the GFS as well, and as I previously mentioned the HWRF during Carlotta showed this happening as well. The HWRF received a significant upgrade and is now able to see in much higher resolution than the other models - it was accurate saying that Carlotta would go where it went and that it would defiy the NHC predictions of intensity and attempt to become a major hurricane. It was also accurate in the intensity of Beryl. This is the 18z HWRF from yesterday, as I don't have a more recent update this is what it was showing.


yeah funny they only mentioned the CMC and not the GFS?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear is still a little high




That is due to the trough that is attached to our non-tropical low being tagged at 10%, that is predicted to lift out. But, I have my doubts as to if shear will be low enough for anything major. No more than a weak TS if it where to become anything, in my opinion.
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The added low in the 18z GFS just makes things way more complicated for development in the BoC.

You have the monsoonal trough lifting northward, the energy in the Caribbean and the tropical wave associated with it and now the much further south than earlier modeled trough digging down, taking out a significant portion of the moisture and sending it into the BoC. During the runs for Carlotta, I noticed exactly this on the HWRF runs though I didn't want to say anything, but it was consistently showing in the more wide range view that a system would try to take shape near Florida and move into the Gulf.

I Don't know about a Bonnie-type system. It would clip south florida and Head due west toward the central gulf before being lifted north which would put it in NOLA, but that could mean we get a decent TS out of it.
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WP052012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) GUCHOL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
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Quoting ncstorm:


The HPC discounted that run saying it was contaiminated today?..It will be interested to see if it keeps being consistent..


Then whatever is contaminating it contaminated the GFS as well, and as I previously mentioned the HWRF during Carlotta showed this happening as well. The HWRF received a significant upgrade and is now able to see in much higher resolution than the other models - it was accurate saying that Carlotta would go where it went and that it would defiy the NHC predictions of intensity and attempt to become a major hurricane. It was also accurate in the intensity of Beryl. This is the 18z HWRF from yesterday, as I don't have a more recent update this is what it was showing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
wind shear is still a little high


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Ummm... not liking these Bahamas references in recent comments... we are not looking forward to any June activity here. Remember June too soon? We really REALLY believe in that...

[ups interest level]
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Link

Click on fronts a 1008mb low has been added off the coast of Nicaragua coast!



850mb vorticity also showing up well



Lower convergence starting to come together in that area also.
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Ugh.
Maybe Next year people... This Tropical Weather Video Thing ain't working out for me afterall :(
Sorry to those who were looking forward to it... Just gonna have to deal with my Tropical Weather Outlooks instead... Sorry. With that said, I have to go feed a Huge 90 pound German Shepherd... and two other dogs. Be back in a bit...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The CMC also agrees with the GFS that we could see development in the Bahamas as soon as 60 hours or so, but is much stronger and sends it after reaching Florida towards North Carolina as perhaps a strong TS. This is much less complex development than anything in the BoC, but it will all depend on the shear at the time.


The HPC discounted that run saying it was contaiminated today?..It will be interesting to see if it keeps being consistent..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The CMC also agrees with the GFS that we could see development in the Bahamas as soon as 60 hours or so, but is much stronger and sends it after reaching Florida towards North Carolina as perhaps a strong TS. This is much less complex development than anything in the BoC, but it will all depend on the shear at the time.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The CMC also agrees with the GFS that we could see development in the Bahamas as soon as 60 hours or so, but is much stronger and sends it after reaching Florida towards North Carolina as perhaps a strong TS. This is much less complex development than anything in the BoC, but it will all depend on the shear at the time.
The NOGAPS for a time was also showing a similar situation.But has since dropped it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17091
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Finnally,some rain fell today in parts of Puerto Rico thanks to the trough that comes from that low near Bermuda. Does anyone has a radar from DR?


That blob is really organizing.
Yellow Circle? Maybe so.
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Going to be interesting to see what TAFB puts up for the 8 pm TWO / TWD.... there have been a few wee changes since 2 p.m.
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The CMC also agrees with the GFS that we could see development in the Bahamas as soon as 60 hours or so, but is much stronger and sends it after reaching Florida towards North Carolina as perhaps a strong TS. This is much less complex development than anything in the BoC, but it will all depend on the shear at the time.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Finnally,some rain fell today in parts of Puerto Rico thanks to the trough that comes from that low near Bermuda. Does anyone has a radar from DR?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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