Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters

Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas

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We now have blue in the Caribbean. When certain bloggers(whom shall remain nameless) see this we will have a Cat 5 on our hands for sure. J/K Anyway, think we need to watch it just the same.
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EWRC???


click image for loop.
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Wow Invest 95
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning. See my post 723, you must have read my mind :-)

We had a short burst of rain a few minutes ago but patchy blue sky now. Got my fingers crossed for a few hours of good weather .
Good morning. Don't know if you will get much good weather today. John Foster said it will be a good day for the beach and you know how that goes. J/K but looking to my SW it is very dark. Glad to see you weigh in on this blob though. Your input is greatly appreciated.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Lol, I know you posted the GOM discussion,but I extended to the Caribbean as there are interesting details there.


Yep I thought so too. I was getting there. lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Lol TropicsPR. I'm just too slow. :p


Lol, I know you posted the GOM discussion,but I extended to the Caribbean as there are interesting details there.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. The blob is the Caribbean looks interesting. The buoy in the western Caribbean(42057) pressure @ 1007.8 mb. Very heavy, dark clouds here over Grand Cayman this morning.


Good morning. See my post 723, you must have read my mind :-)

We had a short burst of rain a few minutes ago but patchy blue sky now. Got my fingers crossed for a few hours of good weather .
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Lol TropicsPR. I'm just too slow. :p
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15N82W...HAVING MOVED NNW FROM
ITS POSITION OF THE N COAST OF PANAMA YESTERDAY. THE LOW IS JUST
OFF THE COAST NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND APPEARS TO
BE STAYING OVER THE WATERS AS OPPOSED MAKING AN EARLY LANDFALL
FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ALLOWING THE LOW TO STAY INTACT AND DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW IS PARKED OVER THE S CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS DELIVERING WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE
SURFACE LOW. STRONG CONVECTION FLARING CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...IS DISPLACED TOO FAR EAST TO ASSIST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL TRACK MORE
WNW AND HUG THE HONDURAN COAST THROUGH TUE...IN RESPONSE TO ATLC
RIDGING BUILD WEST TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN...BEFORE CROSSING THE
TERRAIN OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN YUCATAN WED.
THE UPPER SHEAR BACKS MORE TO THE SW AND DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST THROUGH WED. HOWEVER THE MODEST SHEAR
ALONG WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE LOW FROM DEEPENING
APPRECIABLY THROUGH WED.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Good morning. The blob is the Caribbean looks interesting. The buoy in the western Caribbean(42057) pressure @ 1007.8 mb. Very heavy, dark clouds here over Grand Cayman this morning.
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Heres the NHC marine discussion.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
358 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF
APPEARS TO HAVE DAMPENED OUT AS OF 18/06Z. THIS LEAVES A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SW GULF WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 15 TO 20 KT EAST WINDS ARE NOTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE LOOP CURRENT AND UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING
INTO THIS AREA WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF TUE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE
OTHER HAND INDICATE WINDS INCREASING BUT STAYING IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER SHOWING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DECREASING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER
RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE FORECAST
FAVORS THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRES EMERGING OFF THE YUCATAN INTO THE
S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU...FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
RUNS...THEN SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SW GULF FRI. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH CYCLONIC FLOW IN A BROAD SWATH AROUND THE LOW...ALTHOUGH
FAVORING THE STRONGER GFS SHOWING N WINDS TO 25 KT BY FRI
AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW
PRES. MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS THE PRES TO 1007 MB BY LATE FRI.
EXPECT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THU AND
FRI AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15N82W...HAVING MOVED NNW FROM
ITS POSITION OF THE N COAST OF PANAMA YESTERDAY. THE LOW IS JUST
OFF THE COAST NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND APPEARS TO
BE STAYING OVER THE WATERS AS OPPOSED MAKING AN EARLY LANDFALL
FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ALLOWING THE LOW TO STAY INTACT AND DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW IS PARKED OVER THE S CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS DELIVERING WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE
SURFACE LOW. STRONG CONVECTION FLARING CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...IS DISPLACED TOO FAR EAST TO ASSIST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL TRACK MORE
WNW AND HUG THE HONDURAN COAST THROUGH TUE...IN RESPONSE TO ATLC
RIDGING BUILD WEST TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN...BEFORE CROSSING THE
TERRAIN OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN YUCATAN WED.
THE UPPER SHEAR BACKS MORE TO THE SW AND DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST THROUGH WED. HOWEVER THE MODEST SHEAR
ALONG WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE LOW FROM DEEPENING
APPRECIABLY THROUGH WED. EXPECT CONTINUAL CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN INTO THU AS THE THE LOW AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
TROUGH MIGRATE TO THE NW
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Good morning

Things are finally starting to look interesting in the Caribbean. Pressures are low and falling below 1008 mbs, shear has been falling and the 850 mb vorticity has also improved overnight. A lot will depend on where the low migrates to but for now it seems to be hanging around the South Central Caribbean.

Buoy readings show the trend.This one is just to the South of Grand Cayman.



Vort map




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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
358 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF
APPEARS TO HAVE DAMPENED OUT AS OF 18/06Z. THIS LEAVES A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SW GULF WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 15 TO 20 KT EAST WINDS ARE NOTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE LOOP CURRENT AND UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING
INTO THIS AREA WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF TUE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE
OTHER HAND INDICATE WINDS INCREASING BUT STAYING IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER SHOWING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DECREASING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER
RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE FORECAST
FAVORS THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRES EMERGING OFF THE YUCATAN INTO THE
S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU...FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
RUNS...THEN SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SW GULF FRI.
THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH CYCLONIC FLOW IN A BROAD SWATH AROUND THE LOW...ALTHOUGH
FAVORING THE STRONGER GFS SHOWING N WINDS TO 25 KT BY FRI
AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW
PRES. MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS THE PRES TO 1007 MB BY LATE FRI.
EXPECT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THU AND
FRI AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..now the GFS has three lows in the GOM..

This upcoming week will most likely test even the Pros in forecasting this potential storm..



And goodness knows it'll drive us crazy. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Mornin' all. :)

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Good Morning..now the GFS has three lows in the GOM..

This upcoming week will most likely test even the Pros in forecasting this potential storm..

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718. MahFL
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Wonder if Mexico needs the rain like my area does?


Yes.

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If you live in FL get ready as tropical developement could be head into our region later this week. Also this is something you rarely see here in FL and that a monsoon trough setting up over the FL Penisula. Get ready for some serious rains coming by Wed. I've already had 9.68" for the month of June and can't even imagine what most of E C FL will end up with by months end.


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Good morning everyone. Looks like last night was pretty interesting as we have 95L!
It has a way to go before it becomes Chris though...



Still a major hurricane in the West Pac

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Quoting LargoFl:
I notice they have purple all through the WCar now... but still expecting the development to take place in the BoC... the next 3-4 days should be quite lively.

Anybody seen the latest on the WPac storms?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Morning all... sky looks kinda pink-tinged off to the southeast... do u think it means anything? LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
713. MahFL
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is good news. Hopefully,they will put it to work as soon as possible.


Governments don't work like that. It more than likely take a long time and not work as good as they said......
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711. MahFL
Quoting nigel20:

Yes we do, but it's getting upgraded
Link


Sounds like only the software is being upgraded that dislays the radar. From my take the radar it'self is not being upgraded.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 180556
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS DEVELOPING GALE-AREA
COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Looks like they expect the trough to retrograde over us as the Car low pulls out....




And this is quite interesting.... At 72 hours...



It could get pretty rainy here in Nassau on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Here's a more recent image.



It looks like most of Jamaica is getting or going to get a serious morning downpour.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Good morning all.



Looks like the area SW of JA is getting itself together a little.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Was kind of hard to tell from the GFS seemed to have L's flashing all over the place. But with them and the Euro they didn't run it into Mexico or leave it spinning in the BOC. So maybe they're seeing a northward pull. On this run anyway. :) Still watching though.

sounds good to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
Quoting Stormchaser121:

So now its coming back this way again...


Was kind of hard to tell from the GFS seemed to have L's flashing all over the place. But with them and the Euro they didn't run it into Mexico or leave it spinning in the BOC. So maybe they're seeing a northward pull. On this run anyway. :) Still watching though.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
A little more organized into Brownsville. Could bring beneficial rains on that track if it doesn't develop stronger.

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702. DFWjc
Quoting beell:


No.


I know I'm waaay late on this one, but there WAS a Warning, CBS 11, Larry Mowry had about a 15 min advanced warning on the hail storms....all 4 T-Storm Cells that went through Dallas, Collin, Rockwall, Kaufman Fanin and Lamar Counties. I don't know where you were, but I live in North Richland Hills and was off the day of the hail storm..

Link
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701. Stormchaser121
6:51 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
GFS flashes this one frame. But basically looking like the EURO with a large area of low pressure over the western GOM.


So now its coming back this way again...
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700. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:43 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Goodnight all,keep up the good work. I think things will be more definitive tomorrow!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
699. NCHurricane2009
6:39 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nope not really that area just SW of PR is all caused bu upper divergence but that SW of Jamaica in the SW caribbean has a higher chance of becoming PRE-96L

I'd be careful disregarding the E Caribbean activity...which could surprise us as much as Invest 95-L did. The upper winds have become more and more anticyclonic each hour...and I can start to see a cyclonic spin moving NE across E Hispaniola...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
698. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:35 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

NAM,CMC, GFS
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


CMC,GFS,AND NAM onto that se atlantic coast storm??
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697. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:30 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
NAM AND GFS are onto that one
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696. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:24 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez... looks like I'm the only one headed to bed... [grumps off to sleep]


LOL....I just took a Ambien pill,so sleep will come soon
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
695. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:23 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
693. wunderkidcayman
6:10 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Are y'all considering the east Caribbean activity pre-96L?

Not much of an upping in the NHC TWO...95-L has only been raised from 10% to 20%...but we'll see what goes on later today.


Thanks for the compliment....I hope all understand or can learn from the posts....that's what I like doing best...

nope not really that area just SW of PR is all caused bu upper divergence but that SW of Jamaica in the SW caribbean has a higher chance of becoming PRE-96L
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
692. HurricaneDean07
6:09 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for the update, NC...I'm off to bed...good night everyone!

As the blog goes dim.
Goodnight everyone
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
691. HurricaneDean07
6:07 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Timeline: Next 7 Days.
June 19-
95L possible to develop...
96L tagged...
June 20-
95L peak day...
96L possible to develop...
June 21-
95L weakening...
96L possible to develop...
June 22-
95L dissipates...
96L possible to develop...
June 23-25
96L's primetime for development
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
690. nigel20
6:07 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Are y'all considering the east Caribbean activity pre-96L?

Not much of an upping in the NHC TWO...95-L has only been raised from 10% to 20%...but we'll see what goes on later today.


Thanks for the compliment....I hope all understand or can learn from the posts....that's what I like doing best...

Thanks for the update, NC...I'm off to bed...good night everyone!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8418
689. wunderkidcayman
6:06 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Wheres that forecast to go?

follow the NAM model that will give ya an idea
(extreme NW carib Yucatan cuba
just for now its not going anywhere for a good 6-8hours anyway just good night
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
688. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:05 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 95L doesn't look too impressive but it has a closed low, 35 mph winds, and a minimum barometric pressure of 1003 millibars.



It's going to stay fishing
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
687. NCHurricane2009
6:04 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Are y'all considering the east Caribbean activity pre-96L?

Not much of an upping in the NHC TWO...95-L has only been raised from 10% to 20%...but we'll see what goes on later today.

Quoting allancalderini:
I really like your updates continue with the good work they are very informative.

Thanks for the compliment....I hope all understand or can learn from the posts....that's what I like doing best...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
686. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:03 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Low in the SW Caribbean now @ 1007 mb.


Wheres that forecast to go?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
685. wunderkidcayman
6:02 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Quoting cheaterwon:
Man it sure looks Like japan is in for a bad time. Good luck to them.
Link

Last Friday I called for development to get going Monday in the BOC. I am going to stick with Monday but move the location to the western Caribbean.

lol
I said we were going to get development in the W caribbean this week before Carlletta developed in EPac and way I am out till about 6ish
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
684. Phoenix30
6:01 AM GMT on June 18, 2012
Hey all, good evening. I heard that by Wednesday an unorganized mass of storms is expected to enter the BOC. Then head Northwest towards Tex/Mex border...

I dont know how to do the runs and all that, but how is the Euro and GFS handling it as of right now?

I for one am very happy to see the return of air-mass thunderstorms here in Houston, unlike the front generated storms we only seemed to get the last couple years.

Its a very welcome change to see that blue H persistently centered over Houston choking off the vertical development to move along somewhere else.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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