Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

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Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters

Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas

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Quoting ncstorm:
this was friday's run by the CMC..takes it into the panhandle and up the east coast..






That maybe the set up as you and I were talking last week but was shot down by many on this blog.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any developement is going to take days as this part of a Monsoonal trough that is moving north and now is forcast to stall over C or N FL. It may take until this weekend or next week to get Chris out of this Caribbean blob.





As it was expected too. But that should still be able to channel into development.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Not really in fact shear has slightly increase in the BOC.
However, in the sw caribbean shear is starting to decrease at a good rate in response to low pressure deeping slightly overnight






06z GFS shear for BoC at 120 hours, the band of high shear lifts north as a anti-cyclone develops near the Yucatan.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree... I think we have a much better chance at this point of getting Chris from 95L than anything in the Caribbean or BOC... Very surprising that this MJO pulse hasn't led to development.


Quoting Hurricanes305:


Not really in fact shear has slightly increase in the BOC.
However, in the sw caribbean shear is starting to decrease at a good rate in response to low pressure deeping slightly overnight






Yes this is correct as the upper high is forecast now to set up over the C & E Gulf. So shear in the Boc will be higher than the eastern gulf areas.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


But the models haven't dropped it, the GFS is just being stupid. The ECMWF ENS, GFS ENS, CMC, NOGAPS, all show development. The GFS is the only model showing the low interfering with development because it assumes the low in the face of 20-40kt shear will somehow become dominate.
plus.... THE GFS ALWAYS DROPS STORMS BEFORE THE DEVELOP
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm not counting it out yet, look at how unrealistic the 06z GFS was - the only reason we don't get development is because it meshes with the low over Florida, where as the CMC shows it developing and being pulled east by the low. The ECMWF was the most aggressive it has been with this this system in the 00z, bringing it down to 1005mb as it nears the Texas coast. The ECMWF ensembles are also showing a 1005mb low in the BoC in 120 hours out yet. The GFS ensembles also shows similar to the ECMWF ensembles in that regard vs the operational showing nada. In short, don't count GFS insanity as lack of model support.


Any developement is going to take days as this part of a Monsoonal trough that is moving north and now is forcast to stall over C or N FL. It may take until this weekend or next week to get Chris out of this Caribbean blob.



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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Shear to decrease to around 5-10kts over the BoC thanks to an Anti-Cyclone.


Not really the upper ridge is located in the sw caribbean and extend west from Belize over the coastline of Mexico it is strengthening thanks to the low that deepen slightly overnight



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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I give it about a 50% chance, higher than what I was thinking yesterday... I'd give BOC development about a 30% chance at this point, lower than yesterday.
95L will be plenty strong enough to get named, but it has to become at least sub-tropical.


Which is the problem, it would need to detach from the front AND transition to more warm core in roughly 73 degree water? its only shot is the warmer 78-80 gulf stream, and thats a really small window for development
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Just remember the GFS always has its ups and downs in development.It'll show it 8-9 days out then drop it about 3 days when it had the development and then comes back as it develops! So I still give this potential boc system 50/50 shot right now.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
If I lived in FL and up up the SE US Coast I would this closely as the models are trending toward a FL and SE Coast scenario just as the Nogaps has been saying the whole time. Now the CMC, Nam, and GFS are onboard.


This is the NAM and look west of Tampa.





that is where the gfs showed it 1 month ago.

it would be amazing if it ended up back there, but i dotn think so.
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Shear is continuing to drop to favorable levels over the AOI in the W Caribbean.



850mb Vort remaining reasonably strong.



More low convergence than previously.



wide spread strong convection. Imo this AOI has "good potential" for development.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Once again, that disturbance in the west Caribbean is the one that is shown by the models to cross the Yucatan. It doesn't really matter that they've dropped the disturbance from developing, that's normal. Just ask anybody that watched the models with Alex and Arlene. What matters is that they show a disturbance entering an area where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal, and wind shear is expected to be below 10 knots.


I think what you are missing though are the height falls across the eastern gulf as a disturbance digs in and combins with this tropical moisture. The Nogaps has been showing this coming up from NW Caribbean.

GFS look at this weak trough setting up over the C Gulf

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Once again, that disturbance in the west Caribbean is the one that is shown by the models to cross the Yucatan. It doesn't really matter that they've dropped the disturbance from developing, that's normal. Just ask anybody that watched the models with Alex and Arlene. What matters is that they show a disturbance entering an area where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal, and wind shear is expected to be below 10 knots.


But the models haven't dropped it, the GFS is just being stupid. The ECMWF ENS, GFS ENS, CMC, NOGAPS, all show development. The GFS is the only model showing the low interfering with development because it assumes the low in the face of 20-40kt shear will somehow become dominate.
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NWS has an unclosed low over the central GOM is this the "Florida Low" being referred to?
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Quoting weatherh98:


I dont think 95 L will form

I give it about a 50% chance, higher than what I was thinking yesterday... I'd give BOC development about a 30% chance at this point, lower than yesterday.
95L will be plenty strong enough to get named, but it has to become at least sub-tropical.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree... I think we have a much better chance at this point of getting Chris from 95L than anything in the Caribbean or BOC... Very surprising that this MJO pulse hasn't led to development.


I dont think 95 L will form
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Once again, that disturbance in the west Caribbean is the one that is shown by the models to cross the Yucatan. It doesn't really matter that they've dropped the disturbance from developing, that's normal. Just ask anybody that watched the models with Alex and Arlene. What matters is that they show a disturbance entering an area where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal, and wind shear is expected to be below 10 knots.

Yep! It exactly happened with Alex & Arlene the last two years!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
With each passing model run the BOC development appears to be dwindling. Looking like a C or E Gulf set up as this area here in the NW Caribbean is robbing any possibility for something to form in the BOC.





I'm not counting it out yet, look at how unrealistic the 06z GFS was - the only reason we don't get development is because it meshes with the low over Florida, where as the CMC shows it developing and being pulled east by the low. The ECMWF was the most aggressive it has been with this this system in the 00z, bringing it down to 1005mb as it nears the Texas coast. The ECMWF ensembles are also showing a 1005mb low in the BoC in 120 hours out yet. The GFS ensembles also shows similar to the ECMWF ensembles in that regard vs the operational showing nada. In short, don't count GFS insanity as lack of model support.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
With each passing model run the BOC development appears to be dwindling. Looking like a C or E Gulf set up as this area here in the NW Caribbean is robbing any possibility for something to form in the BOC.




I agree... I think we have a much better chance at this point of getting Chris from 95L than anything in the Caribbean or BOC... Very surprising that this MJO pulse hasn't led to development.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Once again, that disturbance in the west Caribbean is the one that is shown by the models to cross the Yucatan. It doesn't really matter that they've dropped the disturbance from developing, that's normal. Just ask anybody that watched the models with Alex and Arlene. What matters is that they show a disturbance entering an area where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal, and wind shear is expected to be below 10 knots.


Its like having a pile of sticks with gas on top, all it needs is a little spark
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Agree with what? Something that wont able to develop in a ridge :P
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
With each passing model run the BOC development appears to be dwindling. Looking like a C or E Gulf set up as this area here in the NW Caribbean is robbing any possibility for something to form in the BOC.




Once again, that disturbance in the west Caribbean is the one that is shown by the models to cross the Yucatan. It doesn't really matter that they've dropped the disturbance from developing, that's normal. Just ask anybody that watched the models with Alex and Arlene. What matters is that they show a disturbance entering an area where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal, and wind shear is expected to be below 10 knots.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting StormTracker2K:
With each passing model run the BOC development appears to be dwindling. Looking like a C or E Gulf set up as this area here in the NW Caribbean is robbing any possibility for something to form in the BOC.





I agree
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
With each passing model run the BOC development appears to be dwindling. Looking like a C or E Gulf set up as this area here in the NW Caribbean is robbing any possibility for something to form in the BOC.



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Quoting 19N81W:
still too much shear for anything to develop...hopefully some nice thunderstorms to look at though!


Shear to decrease to around 5-10kts over the BoC thanks to an Anti-Cyclone.
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95L is too frontal, i dont think it could develop
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Here's the monsoon trough setting up over FL.

06Z GFS
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still too much shear for anything to develop...hopefully some nice thunderstorms to look at though!
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If I lived in FL and up up the SE US Coast I would this closely as the models are trending toward a FL and SE Coast scenario just as the Nogaps has been saying the whole time. Now the CMC, Nam, and GFS are onboard.


This is the NAM and look west of Tampa.



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The models, which are the stock and trade of this business, are not always correct in terms of the exact location of cyclogenisis but they often get us in the right vicinity........No model support yet for development of the current disturbance but that could change in the near future; it has been very persistent now for over 24 hours and headed towards more favorable conditions.
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Quoting cheaterwon:
The shear in the Caribbean is still there but seems to be dropping pretty fast. At least that is my observation looking at the cloud tops.
Link


According to the latest chart it is. The area of convergence also seems to have expanded a bit and divergence is still holding strong.


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799. 7544
morning all could we see 96l latter on today from the carrr blob ?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The maps he posted shows the disturbance that will likely develop in the Bay of Campeche. It should cross the Yucatan in about 2 days.


that vorticity will still be around, dont count on that particular blob still existing
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The shear in the Caribbean is still there but seems to be dropping pretty fast. At least that is my observation looking at the cloud tops.
Link
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


soooooo, it doesnt matter cause it is the wrong blob and 3 days early.

A new blob would most likely form before a chris, or debby, or ernesto, whatever it is by then

The maps he posted shows the disturbance that will likely develop in the Bay of Campeche. It should cross the Yucatan in about 2 days.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


soooooo, it doesnt matter cause it is the wrong blob and 3 days early.

A new blob would most likely form before a chris
Actually it can form wherever or whenever. Models are just for guidance. They have no control over Mother Nature. Many storms have formed with NO model support. We in the Caribbean have learned to watch any blob closely as they can and do develop unexpectedly.
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45 mph.

Look at the very last frame. It's firing thunderstorms near the center
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Quoting Bitmap7:
sooooooooooo




Mr. 850 vort and Miss Blob appear to be meeting for the first time in the WCarib.


soooooo, it doesnt matter cause it is the wrong blob and 3 days early.

A new blob would most likely form before a chris, or debby, or ernesto, whatever it is by then

the wait is killing me :)
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Right after viewing the satellite the 850 and 925 vort and surface obs I say the COC is around 14.5N 81.0W
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Good morning everybody. Coffee in hand trying to see what's up in the tropics...seems to be a lot of ????? this morning :)
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sooooooooooo




Mr. 850 vort and Miss Blob appear to be meeting for the first time in the WCarib.
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Key West NWS Discussion

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WET REGIME WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CREEP
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING
POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL CUTOFF WANDERING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WHICH
DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH MAY INDUCE NORTHERLY FLOW
AND BRING SOME DRIER AIR BACK DOWN INTO THE KEYS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR THE FORECAST...WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POPS TO LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW AND STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE. THE LATEST
ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. DUE TO THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...STAYED WITH HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TO MID CHANCE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT A WETTER THAN NORMAL REGIME
FOR LATE JUNE WILL PREVAIL.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH CARVE
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE SE U.S./FLA E COAST OVER THE ATLC
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS40 SOLUTIONS
DIFFER SOME IN THAT THE LATTER PLACES THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER S WHICH
MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER S FLA. AT HIS
TIME WILL FOLLOW MEX GUIDANCE BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Something for south Florida in a few days?

showers
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.